GMO's quarterly letter

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howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

howboutshoeshine wrote:DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and
 
I disagree. That was f***ing hilarious.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

SometimesNowhere wrote:howboutshoeshine wrote:DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and
 
I disagree. That was f***ing hilarious.
 
Humor does vary

thrownouttwice's picture
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howboutshoeshine wrote: DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and

actually I think he is dead on. And it was funny

Shania Twain's picture
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Joined: 2009-09-23

That meth sounds fairly brutal
 anyone tried it?
sounds like an amazing buzz 
 

thrownouttwice's picture
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Joined: 2010-02-09

on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

thrownouttwice wrote:on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked
 
Me too. I just got done cleaning my house and running from my refrigerator.

Shania Twain's picture
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thrownouttwice wrote: on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked

too much info.

thank you for sharing

thrownouttwice's picture
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Joined: 2010-02-09

That could be the funniest thing ever. Admin hacked my account and put that tag line down there. Hello admin, please don't try the same on my checking accounts

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

mlgone wrote: thrownouttwice wrote: That could be the funniest thing ever. Admin hacked my account and put that tag line down there. Hello admin, please don't try the same on my checking accounts What do you expect, your a dummy........
 
Ironic.

Shania Twain's picture
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goog getting into broadband. wtf

This is coolest company on planet.   

generate $378237821738217312731.00 from search

and fukc around with the left over cash.

Indyone's picture
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howboutshoeshine wrote:Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.
 
I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 
-on and on and on and on
 
You know what?  I'm done.  I started responding to everything you listed, but I'm wasting far too much time one someone that I think is believing what he is reading instead of using common sense.  Economic cycles come and go.  You and I disagree about where we are in the current one.  I'm not a sheep, I do read differing opinions, and I do understand that not everything is coming up roses right now.  BFD...this happens after every recession we've ever had.  There is always something to bitch about.  Frankly, I'm getting damned sick of you trying to tell me that I'm not using common sense, or am stupid or whatever.  Your predictions will ultimately be worth what we all paid for them...you don't own any intelligence that is not already out there and you are choosing to believe only those items that fit your doomsday scenario.  You can write reams and reams of this sky is falling crap and I still won't buy it.  If you're truly the messiah, you'd be making a hell of a lot more money than you are and I'd at least be seeing you on CNBC by now.  The people buying TIPs at this level are the true dumbasses.
 
It's your condescension that pisses me off...you're not half as f-ing smart as you think you are.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Indyone- My advice is currently worth about 7%. That said, what is the average market cycle in length? When does the bottom typically occur?
 
Where are you reading what I am writing? I can't find it in but 3-4 places....... among thousands of bullish analysts.
 
Also, I could care less if you listen to me. Probabilities are just that, and I COULD be wrong. I highly doubt it, but time, statistics and the history of the stock market are on your side...good luck. Remember, stocks go up in the long term! And don't you worry your little head about my income.

Shania Twain's picture
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Joined: 2009-09-23

Indyone wrote: [I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 
-on and on and on and on
 

And guess what my friend.   

The market collective

ALREADY KNOWS ALL OF the stuff you just said.   You think all that stuff is news to the market? come on.

here is the REAL story

1. billions OF PEOPLE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT WILL WORK FOR $1.00 A DAY

=NO INFLATION

2. WITH NO INFLATION THREAT....GOVT CAN STIM TILL THE mf COWS COME HOME.

3. THE MARKET KNOWS ALL THAT STUFF YOU SPEWED OUT (DUH).

4. STOCKS ARE SIMPLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND:

   PEOPLE ARE WAY,WAY,WAY UNDER-INVESTED AND SCARED. (look at trim tabs) (think about your client attitudes)

5. THE STIM IS GOING TO KEEP RATES LOW (STOCK ALTERNATIVES)

6. AND THE BIG ONE.   

THE REAL STORY.

THE REAL WILDCARD THAT IS BEING GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED

THE GLOBAL MF ECONOMY.

do the math.   

its the GD industrial revolution times 100

dont miss the forest for the trees. do the math.

free markets blooming EVERYWHERE across the globe.

position your self for the coming global competition for resources.

duh

think

billions of new people competing for resources.

BRAZIL MIDDLE CLASS, CHINA MIDDLE CLASS, INDIA EATING 3 TIMES A DAY ETC ETC ETC

The labor market angle is HUGE and being missed by many,many people.   

Inflation is what spoils the equity party.

inflation is labor costs.

Go to MF Sam's and look around.

oil was 147
metals
ag etc all making all time highs in 2007

core PPI? 1.2%

stocks are so cheap.

this wall of worry is a wonderful thing

grand pa: You were a stock broker during the monster globle economy emerging! how cool

you must of made a fortune!!! what a no brainer.

well, son...i was kind of afraid and we kept our money in TIPS and tbills.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

emerging markets- July 09' levels
China- June 09' levels
 
Buying and selling at the correct times is key to making money. You once said William O'Neil is your man, so you should already know this.

Shania Twain's picture
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Joined: 2009-09-23

The Bovespa will be over 200,000 by the end of the decade

(at a minimum)

NYCTrader's picture
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Shania Twain wrote: Indyone wrote: [I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 
-on and on and on and on
 

And guess what my friend.   

The market collective

ALREADY KNOWS ALL OF the stuff you just said.   You think all that stuff is news to the market? come on.

here is the REAL story

1. billions OF PEOPLE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT WILL WORK FOR $1.00 A DAY

=NO INFLATION

2. WITH NO INFLATION THREAT....GOVT CAN STIM TILL THE mf COWS COME HOME.

3. THE MARKET KNOWS ALL THAT STUFF YOU SPEWED OUT (DUH).

4. STOCKS ARE SIMPLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND:

   PEOPLE ARE WAY,WAY,WAY UNDER-INVESTED AND SCARED. (look at trim tabs) (think about your client attitudes)

5. THE STIM IS GOING TO KEEP RATES LOW (STOCK ALTERNATIVES)

6. AND THE BIG ONE.   

THE REAL STORY.

THE REAL WILDCARD THAT IS BEING GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED

THE GLOBAL MF ECONOMY.

do the math.   

its the GD industrial revolution times 100

dont miss the forest for the trees. do the math.

free markets blooming EVERYWHERE across the globe.

position your self for the coming global competition for resources.

duh

think

billions of new people competing for resources.

BRAZIL MIDDLE CLASS, CHINA MIDDLE CLASS, INDIA EATING 3 TIMES A DAY ETC ETC ETC

The labor market angle is HUGE and being missed by many,many people.   

Inflation is what spoils the equity party.

inflation is labor costs.

Go to MF Sam's and look around.

oil was 147
metals
ag etc all making all time highs in 2007

core PPI? 1.2%

stocks are so cheap.

this wall of worry is a wonderful thing

grand pa: You were a stock broker during the monster globle economy emerging! how cool

you must of made a fortune!!! what a no brainer.

well, son...i was kind of afraid and we kept our money in TIPS and tbills.Shania, do you really believe the markets are efficient?

Shania Twain's picture
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dunno

NYCTrader's picture
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Shania Twain wrote:dunnoReason I ask is because you make these assumptions that the "market collective knows" -- as if it were some wise, all-knowing entity that is never wrong.  I disagree.  I think the markets are wildly inefficient, which is why I believe in active management and not passive indexing.  Euro is getting smoked.  I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn't going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels.  This thing is for real.  After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK... Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

NYCTrader wrote: Shania Twain wrote:dunnoReason I ask is because you make these assumptions that the "market collective knows" -- as if it were some wise, all-knowing entity that is never wrong.  I disagree.  I think the markets are wildly inefficient, which is why I believe in active management and not passive indexing.  Euro is getting smoked.  I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn't going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels.  This thing is for real.  After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK... Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.
 
The UK is straight up scary. I'm actually glad there is a problem with Greece. If more people saw some of their debt numbers they would walk around with a perpetual deuce in their pants.

Shania Twain's picture
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hello...Greece means nothing to market

just to CNBC.     it's funny

Shania Twain's picture
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NYCTrader wrote:
Shania Twain wrote:dunno

  I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn't going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels.  This thing is for real.  After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK... Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.

spx down 8% after a run from 667 TO 1150 and you're right?

come on.....Friday intra day all you bears get

Latvia.    DO NOT MENTION LATVIA.

PLEASE

latvia.....................omg

(this country debt crap is totally retarded.    stupid.)

NYCTrader's picture
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Shania Twain wrote:hello...Greece means nothing to market

just to CNBC.     it's funny

Shania, it's not just Greece.  Are you living under a rock?  Have
looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries? 
You can deny it all you want because it doesn't fit into your bullish
investment thesis, but this is unprecedented and will have global
ramifications.

Moraen's picture
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Joined: 2009-01-22

Ireland is worse than any of them.  

Wet_Blanket's picture
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Greece does matter.  I sat on a fixed income conference earlier this week and learned a new terminology (when discussing this subject): PIIGS (the countries most likely to be in the same situation (like BRIC): Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain

Shania Twain's picture
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NYCTrader wrote:

looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries? 

yes. Take a look at these ratios in 2007 and 1997 and 1987.....

western europe are socialist....hello.

missed 2000 bubble
missed 2008 bubble

they wont get me again......Im gonna find next bubble......
so idiots make one up.     

leh aint greece

They will restructure
(increase term) of Greece's debt.
Slap their hand.

countries will tighten belt and lower spending (look at US, even Obama talking about spending cuts)

cycles cycles

non-event

ice put it best a few post's back.
companies go chap 11
cycles cycle
strong get stronger
weak die
life goes on

extend terms of weaker NATIONs

non-event

Shania Twain's picture
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hell.

I bet tea party legit.
people sick of govt spending

this is all good

cycles cycle

(dollar rally and carry trade impacting stocks)

greece means nada to stocks

NYCTrader's picture
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Shania Twain wrote: NYCTrader wrote:

looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries? 

yes. Take a look at these ratios in 2007 and 1997 and 1987.....

western europe are socialist....hello.

missed 2000 bubble
missed 2008 bubble

they wont get me again......Im gonna find next bubble......
so idiots make one up.     

leh aint greece

They will restructure
(increase term) of Greece's debt.
Slap their hand.

countries will tighten belt and lower spending (look at US, even Obama talking about spending cuts)

cycles cycles

non-event

ice put it best a few post's back.
companies go chap 11
cycles cycle
strong get stronger
weak die
life goes on

extend terms of weaker NATIONs

non-event

Keep telling yourself it's a non-event.

NYCTrader's picture
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Wet_Blanket wrote:Greece does matter.  I sat on a fixed income conference earlier this week and learned a new terminology (when discussing this subject): PIIGS (the countries most likely to be in the same situation (like BRIC): Portugal Ireland Italy Greece SpainYou work in compliance, right?I'll give you a pass on not ever hearing the term PIIGS until this week based on the fact that you don't run money for anyone.

Shania Twain's picture
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NYCTrader wrote:

Keep telling yourself it's a non-event.

market will tell us.

bulls made stand just when they needed too

1044 looks like bottom for u bears

i'm betting new highs

please dont mention Latvia again.

what was freak show's name on Taxi? i think of him.

where the F is latvia anyway?

   

Shania Twain's picture
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Joined: 2009-09-23

Greece's finance minister

Working on budget to save free world.

Shania Twain's picture
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Latvia's GDP is 22 MF billion.

22 billion?

That's Vineland, NJ parks dept.

NYCTrader's picture
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Shania Twain wrote: NYCTrader wrote:

Keep telling yourself it's a non-event.

market will tell us.

bulls made stand just when they needed too

1044 looks like bottom for u bears

i'm betting new highs

please dont mention Latvia again.

what was freak show's name on Taxi? i think of him.

where the F is latvia anyway?

   You're think of Latka.  Andy Kaufman. 

Shania Twain's picture
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mlgone wrote:
 

 

funny

thats the cream of the crop.    dont they sell these women online?

Shania Twain's picture
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good news in last month

earnings rocking
spx $80ish plus
brown win SO big
obama humbled and moving to center
china data rockin

new highs soon.

CNBC: The Greece Crisis.

bawhhahahahahahahhahahahahahha

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
Stocks go up over time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As long as you ignore Japan and the original DOW 30. 29 of them already went bye bye and GE is the last to stand, and if GE is identifying where the DOW is going, you are looking at DOW 4000.
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
BRIC suckas!
bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!

Shania Twain's picture
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Joined: 2009-09-23

howboutshoeshine wrote: buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
Stocks go up over time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As long as you ignore Japan and the original DOW 30. 29 of them already went bye bye and GE is the last to stand, and if GE is identifying where the DOW is going, you are looking at DOW 4000.
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
BRIC suckas!
bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!

check trim tabs

those stats are truly AMAZING since March lows

has NEVER happened before

small guy so MF bearish

The crowd
The peanut investor
The little guy
Is SO scared and bearish

AND YOU ARE ON HIS SIDE.   

THINK ABOUT THIS A SECOND, SHINE, NYC ETC.

YOUR WITH THIS GUY?
THE BIGGEST LOSER IN THE HISTORY OF THE PLANET

HE WONT GET CAUGHT THIS TIME.

HE IS OUT FOR THE NEXT BUBBLE
OR SO SCARED FROM 02 AND 08

SINCE THE TULIP MANIA, THIS MF HAS BEEN DEAD WRONG.

ALWAYS. LIKE THE SUN COMING UP
HE GETS CRUSHED

AND YOU'RE WITH HIM.

THIS GUY IS GONNA BE RIGHT?

NOPE

HE GONNA GET KILLED. LIKE HE ALWAYS DOES

YOUR ON THIS GUYS BANDWAGON?

THINK ABOUT YOUR STUPID CLIENTS.   THE GUYS ALWAYS WRONG
THE GUYS CALLING DAILY TO BAIL IN MARCH

WHAT ARE THEIR THOUGHTS?

SCARED AND BEARISH.........DUH

THIS GUY GONNA BE RIGHT?

NOT A MF CHANCE

DUH

STOCKS ARE SUPPLY AND DEMAND. NO MORE   NO LESS

The AAII Survey was mostly Bearish this week, with 51.88% of our members feeling negative. 26.75% were Bullish.

this GUY GONNA BE RIGHT?

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

Shania Twain wrote: mlgone wrote:
 

 

funny

thats the cream of the crop.    dont they sell these women online? Seriously, I love that Austrian girl.

NYCTrader's picture
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Shania Twain wrote:good news in last month

earnings rocking
spx $80ish plus
brown win SO big
obama humbled and moving to center
china data rockin

Shania, I'd be careful putting your faith in the data released by a communist regime.You need to buy American.  Put your faith in the Greenback.  Go long USD...

Shania Twain's picture
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My best argument.
 
You're on the same side trade
 
that the average
sheep,
lemming
small investor,
always wrong,
always get killed
is 
 
period.
 
If you're right
This guy is right.
 

NYCTrader's picture
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Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote:My best argument.
 
You're on the same side trade
 
that the average
sheep,
lemming
small investor,
always wrong,
always get killed
is 
 
period.
 
If you're right
This guy is right.
 USD vs EUR is the hedge fund trade right now, it's not the dumb money trade.I will say the  latest II report moved in a major way towards the bears.  Not what I wanted to see.The best bullish argument I've heard is that the sovereign debt crisis and impending rate hikes are going to push money out of bonds.  Bonds are over-valued right now and while I think stocks are as well, bonds had an insane amount of money poured into them in 2009 (out of the $377.4 billion in net mutual fund inflows for '09, $356.6 billion of it went into bond funds).  If this money leaves bond funds where does it go?  Cash isn't yielding anything.There is an case to be made that this may go long utility names or other stable, large cap, dividend paying names.  Will this be enough to drive the markets higher in the face of all the bad macro data?  I don't know.    

Shania Twain's picture
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If you're right.
 
So will Mr Small Guy......
 
Mr. Peanut hates stocks.........

Shania Twain's picture
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Quote:
 
I will say the  latest II report moved in a major way towards the bears.  Not what I wanted to see.
 
I told you.  faux bulls, all with qualifiers.
 
people are MF scared to death
period
 
they will be wrong

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Shania Twain wrote:My best argument.
 
You're on the same side trade
 
that the average
sheep,
lemming
small investor,
always wrong,
always get killed
is 
 
period.
 
If you're right
This guy is right.
 
 
Funny thing Shania.....We agree in concept, we just disagree on the feeling out there. I don't see fear and sceptisism. I see greed. I got more calls about why in the hell I got short in January than I've gotten in my entire career. Our experiences are vastly different.

Shania Twain's picture
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[/IMG]

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Quote me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've locked in a garaunteed gain. The s&p goes through 1103 on good volume I will close out the position at a 2% gain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sportsfreakbob's picture
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Shania, you crack me up

NYCTrader's picture
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NYCTrader wrote:Shania Twain wrote:western europe debt "issue" is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever.     funny

ummmm hello.    spain aint leh.     duh

dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.   
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long

Shania, you want to short the USD vs EUR, be my guest.  The more I research this, the more bullish on the USD I become.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1.20.  ECB is backed into a corner.  They have to do something about Greece.  But as soon as they do that, moral hazard kicks in and suddenly Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Iraly will have their hands out expecting the same (remind anyone of a certain bank/auto bailout in 08-09?)   Remember, the Euro is a relatively new currency and this is their first major test.  Not sure about you, but I'm betting most investors aren't going to want to hang around and see if the folks in the EU are going to be able to figure this out.  Greenback's going to be the safe haven of choice.  Get long USD.Shania Twain/Jennifer Nettles/Sara Evans,I'm calling you out here.Good call on the situation in Europe, buddy.  You were dead wrong.I called Euro 1.20 back on Feb 7th and here we are breaching 1.20.You still bullish?  

Jennifer Nettles's picture
Joined: 2010-03-01

yo yo yosup brother?   not hiding from yousummer is here and there is fighting in the streetsbeen riding my beast of a motorcycle and enjoying the sunshine!I pulled some chips off the table in april   (documented in my nom de plume.........ummm sara evans.......in the other neighborhood)we did some heavy buying friday and today  (1050-60ish)perfectlove the action.    nice, quick fear fulled smash.  perfect.we will hold some dry powder for  maybe a 15-20%  (dont see it though)dude.  we down 12 off high and you claiming victory?   PALEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ love the fearperfectthe faux 1000 point melt was PERFECTadd MORE fear   (i couldnt have scriped that any better)i want MORE books on why stocks suck and buy and hold is deadi want more infomercials on why fix annunities are the only answer the oil spill make me sad.  wrecking the earth.  killing thingssucksmarket is super low risk here.     its your chance to move from the dark sideget long.   nowbricks.peace brother i bet  he aint a negative whinny bear.wooden all in

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