GMO's quarterly letter

171 replies [Last post]
howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

iceco1d wrote:D..are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  
 
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.I'm not calling you dumb.  I'm not calling bulls dumb.  I'm calling people who have knee-jerk reaction to news without thinking through the ramifications dumb (look at some of the articles coming out of the media about this issue).  I don't presume to know more than anyone else.  I have no way of predicting the future.  I have no idea what the markets will to do from one day to the next.  All I have is my analysis and my judgment.   Saying bears state opinions as fact is like saying bulls state opinions as fact.  It's not really a valid argument.  Everyone has an opinion on this market.  Some are more rigorous than others.  I think you fall into a trap when you become overly dogmatic.  I was bullish from Dec '08 to Nov-'09.  I am now bearish.  I will likely be bullish again after the market hits reasonable levels.  Not saying stocks don't have room to run or won't run, but I'm not going to put capital to work in equities while we're in an environment like this one.

DeBolt's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-07-12

howboutshoeshine wrote:iceco1d wrote:D..are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  
 
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious
 
Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials...
 
Anybody know a guy like this?
 
Scottrade 1
 
Scottrade 2
 
Scottrade 3
 
Scottrade 4

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

DeBolt wrote:howboutshoeshine wrote:iceco1d wrote:D..are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  
 
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious
 
Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials...
 
Anybody know a guy like this?
 
Scottrade 1
 
Scottrade 2
 
Scottrade 3
 
Scottrade 4
 
Funny comercials. Funnier posts!!

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.
 
I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 

-on and on and on and on

thrownouttwice's picture
Offline
Joined: 2010-02-09

howboutshoeshine wrote: Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.
 
I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 

-on and on and on and on

Thanks Rosenberg.......we will get back to you sooon......

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Shania Twain wrote: ok...shine.

Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.

Bulls need to make a stand here.

pivot   1070ish area

do not want to violate Friday's low.
today was really disappointing

just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.

judgement time

Bulls need to make a stand here.

bingo.

Sell off over.   

Friday intra-day all you bears get.

today was a perfect and important day.

(BTW: Greece bullshti means zip)

TEAR DOWN THAT WALL.

God bless global free markets.   get on BULL MONEY TRAIN

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

hhmmmmmm. Not sure how today qualified as good.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%)
Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%)

excuse me

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Shania Twain wrote: Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%) S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%) Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%) excuse me
 
Meaningless-remember when the DOW popped up 16% in one day in October?
Shania- price by itself is meaningless. I rrealize you do not watch technicals, ( from your posts ) but this is why you have a hard time making calls. Statistics, time, price, etc. etc. etc. will always be on a bulls side. However, when you're wrong......bears( aka.... .smart money.....aka the guys that WERE bulls ) take it ALL back!
 
What happened to 1071? found new support?

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

howboutshoeshine wrote:Shania Twain wrote: Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%) S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%) Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%) excuse me
 
Meaningless-remember when the DOW popped up 16% in one day in October?
Shania- price by itself is meaningless. I rrealize you do not watch technicals, ( from your posts ) but this is why you have a hard time making calls. Statistics, time, price, etc. etc. etc. will always be on a bulls side. However, when you're wrong......bears( aka.... .smart money.....aka the guys that WERE bulls ) take it ALL back!
 

<> #sideNav{width:170px;}

Short Term Effects of Smoking Crystal Meth


Learn to spot the signs of meth use...-->

The short-term effects of smoking crystal meth are varied and dangerous, making this one of the more hazardous, if not the most hazardous, street drugs to use.
 

< = id=Googles =text/> < = ="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> < ="http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/test_domain.js"> < ="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/render_ads.js"> google_protectAndRun("render_ads.js::google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad); < =1.1 ="http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/ads?client=ca-pub-3619764495662405&output=js&_size=468x60&lmt=1265622978&num_ads=3&channel=4359200789&ad_=text_&ea=0&feedback_=on&flash=10.0.32.18&=http%3A%2F%2Faddiction.lovetoknow.com%2Fwiki%2FShort_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth&dt=1265813863495&correlator=1265813863495&frm=0&ga_vid=1126817745.1265813700&ga_sid=1265813700&ga_hid=2129413074&ga_fc=1&u_tz=-300&u_his=7&u_java=1&u_h=1024&u_w=1280&u_ah=996&u_aw=1280&u_cd=32&u_nplug=0&u_nmime=0&biw=999&bih=863&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fhl%3Den%26safe%3Dactive%26q%3Dsmoking%2Bmeth%26aq%3Df%26aql%3Df%26aqi%3Dg10%26oq%3D&loc=http%3A%2F%2Faddiction.lovetoknow.com%2Fwiki%2FShort_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth&fu=0&ifi=1&dtd=16">

Ads by Google
Drug Abuse Treatment - Let us help stop the pain caused by drug addiction. Free Service! 4rehabilitation.com
Crystal Meth Basics
Crystal methamphetamine is created from d-methamphetamine and is a highly addictive and dangerous drug that is injected, swallowed, smoked and sometimes snorted. Crystal meth resembles shiny crystal or glass rocks that are usually pale blue-white in color. Crystal meth is a stimulant and can make people feel elated, which makes it an attractive drug choice among many. The long-term and short-term effects of smoking crystal meth have been well documented, and one thing this drug is not is attractive. In fact, crystal meth is downright deadly.
The Short-Term Effects of Smoking Crystal Meth Are Highly Dangerous
Often something you hear about street drugs (all addictive drugs in fact) is that the long-term effects are bad for you health-wise, but if you stop soon enough you can reverse some of the health risks. Consider smoking tobacco. Quit-smoking techniques are often centered around the long-term negative health consequences, and it has actually been proven that people who quit smoking (even after years of tobacco use) reduce those health risks. This is not the case with crystal meth. Crystal meth can be deadly from the beginning, and the health risks in the long term are less likely to be reduced by quitting.
This is not to say people should not quit crystal meth if they’re already using; it's just that with this drug there's a much shorter time-frame in which good health
can return if you stop using it. Crystal meth is one of those drugs you never want to be involved with in the first place, but the sooner someone quits the better. With drug abuse, the short-term risks can be just as unhealthy as the long-term risks.

Specific Effects of Short Term Crystal Meth Use
The short-term effects of smoking crystal meth can be instantaneous. Smoking actually produces a different short-term effect than injections or snorting. When someone first smokes crystal meth, what happens is that right away the individual will feel more in focus and exhilarated because smoking meth ensures that a big dose of this toxin heads straight to the brain.
Since smoking creates an instantaneous effect, it's a huge rush for the people who use it and the feeling of exhilaration or euphoria that occurs is addictive. Other quicker, short-term effects may include a need to clean or organize, along with reduced social and or sexual inhibitions.
While feeling happy and less inhibited can possibly be looked at as positive, there are also instant physical issues occurring when crystal meth is smoked. Crystal meth goes to work immediately on the central nervous system by producing massive levels of both norepinephrine and dopamine. These are neurotransmitters in the brain that do need to function properly in order to lead a normal life. Crystal meth interferes with how they work, and plenty of research shows that abnormalities in neurotransmitters can affect both mood and behavior negatively.
The effect crystal meth has on neurotransmitters can cause:


  • Agitation
  • Paranoia
  • Unusual to completely bizarre behaviors
  • Increased heart rate and blood pressure
  • Increased body temperature

All of the above are short and long-term effects of crystal meth. Most of the time, the long-term effects of crystal meth are simply highly-exaggerated short-term effects. Another thing crystal meth can do right away is effect nutrition
. It blocks hunger and fatigue, and this means people will not eat when then should if they're constantly using crystal meth. They also run their bodies down with lack of sleep. Basically, crystal meth will push someone's body at a more rapid pace than anyone's body should ever go.

Lastly, few studies have been done on how a huge cloud of toxic crystal meth smoke may effect lung health. It's well documented that cigarettes – full of toxins themselves - are very bad for lung health. It's likely that smoking crystal meth is even worse because it's a far more toxic and potent drug.

< = id=Googles =text/> < = ="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> < ="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/render_ads.js"> google_protectAndRun("render_ads.js::google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad); < =1.1 ="http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/ads?client=ca-pub-3619764495662405&output=js&_size=468x60&lmt=1265622978&num_ads=3&skip=3&channel=6160789012&ad_=text_&ea=0&feedback_=on&flash=10.0.32.18&=http%3A%2F%2Faddiction.lovetoknow.com%2Fwiki%2FShort_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth&dt=1265813864181&correlator=1265813863495&frm=0&ga_vid=1126817745.1265813700&ga_sid=1265813700&ga_hid=2129413074&ga_fc=1&u_tz=-300&u_his=7&u_java=1&u_h=1024&u_w=1280&u_ah=996&u_aw=1280&u_cd=32&u_nplug=0&u_nmime=0&biw=999&bih=847&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fhl%3Den%26safe%3Dactive%26q%3Dsmoking%2Bmeth%26aq%3Df%26aql%3Df%26aqi%3Dg10%26oq%3D&loc=http%3A%2F%2Faddiction.lovetoknow.com%2Fwiki%2FShort_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth&fu=0&ifi=2&dtd=16">
Ads by Google
How Long Does the Effect of Crystal Meth Last?
The first effects noted above that hit someone after smoking crystal meth, such as the rush and euphoria, can last from two to six hours. The problem is that often users go on what's called a "speed run". This means they'll continually use, so there's a question about how long short-term effects last. Also, once a drug tolerance has built in an individual, it becomes more difficult to draw a time table. However, two to six hours is what the best research noted by Narconon relates. Narconon is a great resource for users of crystal meth. Narconon is a non-profit program that has associations with around 100 or more drug rehab programs and clinics.
Other resources for help with a crystal meth addiction include:


Retrieved from "http://addiction.lovetoknow.com/wiki/Short_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth"

getContributors('Initial Author: Jennifer ChaitRecent Contributors: JC Redmond, Kelly Roper')
Initial Author: Jennifer ChaitRecent Contributors: JC Redmond, Kelly Roper 

Learn More
Slideshows and Quizzes

 

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

howboutshoeshine wrote:DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and
 
I disagree. That was f***ing hilarious.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

SometimesNowhere wrote:howboutshoeshine wrote:DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and
 
I disagree. That was f***ing hilarious.
 
Humor does vary

thrownouttwice's picture
Offline
Joined: 2010-02-09

howboutshoeshine wrote: DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info...........and

actually I think he is dead on. And it was funny

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

That meth sounds fairly brutal
 anyone tried it?
sounds like an amazing buzz 
 

thrownouttwice's picture
Offline
Joined: 2010-02-09

on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

thrownouttwice wrote:on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked
 
Me too. I just got done cleaning my house and running from my refrigerator.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

thrownouttwice wrote: on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked

too much info.

thank you for sharing

thrownouttwice's picture
Offline
Joined: 2010-02-09

That could be the funniest thing ever. Admin hacked my account and put that tag line down there. Hello admin, please don't try the same on my checking accounts

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

thrownouttwice wrote: That could be the funniest thing ever. Admin hacked my account and put that tag line down there. Hello admin, please don't try the same on my checking accounts

What do you expect, your a dummy........

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

mlgone wrote: thrownouttwice wrote: That could be the funniest thing ever. Admin hacked my account and put that tag line down there. Hello admin, please don't try the same on my checking accounts What do you expect, your a dummy........
 
Ironic.

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

lol

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

goog getting into broadband. wtf

This is coolest company on planet.   

generate $378237821738217312731.00 from search

and fukc around with the left over cash.

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

howboutshoeshine wrote:Indyone wrote:NYCTrader wrote:This is one of the dumbest rallies I've ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out...

 
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.
 
I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 
-on and on and on and on
 
You know what?  I'm done.  I started responding to everything you listed, but I'm wasting far too much time one someone that I think is believing what he is reading instead of using common sense.  Economic cycles come and go.  You and I disagree about where we are in the current one.  I'm not a sheep, I do read differing opinions, and I do understand that not everything is coming up roses right now.  BFD...this happens after every recession we've ever had.  There is always something to bitch about.  Frankly, I'm getting damned sick of you trying to tell me that I'm not using common sense, or am stupid or whatever.  Your predictions will ultimately be worth what we all paid for them...you don't own any intelligence that is not already out there and you are choosing to believe only those items that fit your doomsday scenario.  You can write reams and reams of this sky is falling crap and I still won't buy it.  If you're truly the messiah, you'd be making a hell of a lot more money than you are and I'd at least be seeing you on CNBC by now.  The people buying TIPs at this level are the true dumbasses.
 
It's your condescension that pisses me off...you're not half as f-ing smart as you think you are.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

Indyone- My advice is currently worth about 7%. That said, what is the average market cycle in length? When does the bottom typically occur?
 
Where are you reading what I am writing? I can't find it in but 3-4 places....... among thousands of bullish analysts.
 
Also, I could care less if you listen to me. Probabilities are just that, and I COULD be wrong. I highly doubt it, but time, statistics and the history of the stock market are on your side...good luck. Remember, stocks go up in the long term! And don't you worry your little head about my income.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Indyone wrote: [I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 
-on and on and on and on
 

And guess what my friend.   

The market collective

ALREADY KNOWS ALL OF the stuff you just said.   You think all that stuff is news to the market? come on.

here is the REAL story

1. billions OF PEOPLE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT WILL WORK FOR $1.00 A DAY

=NO INFLATION

2. WITH NO INFLATION THREAT....GOVT CAN STIM TILL THE mf COWS COME HOME.

3. THE MARKET KNOWS ALL THAT STUFF YOU SPEWED OUT (DUH).

4. STOCKS ARE SIMPLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND:

   PEOPLE ARE WAY,WAY,WAY UNDER-INVESTED AND SCARED. (look at trim tabs) (think about your client attitudes)

5. THE STIM IS GOING TO KEEP RATES LOW (STOCK ALTERNATIVES)

6. AND THE BIG ONE.   

THE REAL STORY.

THE REAL WILDCARD THAT IS BEING GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED

THE GLOBAL MF ECONOMY.

do the math.   

its the GD industrial revolution times 100

dont miss the forest for the trees. do the math.

free markets blooming EVERYWHERE across the globe.

position your self for the coming global competition for resources.

duh

think

billions of new people competing for resources.

BRAZIL MIDDLE CLASS, CHINA MIDDLE CLASS, INDIA EATING 3 TIMES A DAY ETC ETC ETC

The labor market angle is HUGE and being missed by many,many people.   

Inflation is what spoils the equity party.

inflation is labor costs.

Go to MF Sam's and look around.

oil was 147
metals
ag etc all making all time highs in 2007

core PPI? 1.2%

stocks are so cheap.

this wall of worry is a wonderful thing

grand pa: You were a stock broker during the monster globle economy emerging! how cool

you must of made a fortune!!! what a no brainer.

well, son...i was kind of afraid and we kept our money in TIPS and tbills.

howboutshoeshine's picture
Joined: 2010-01-29

emerging markets- July 09' levels
China- June 09' levels
 
Buying and selling at the correct times is key to making money. You once said William O'Neil is your man, so you should already know this.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

The Bovespa will be over 200,000 by the end of the decade

(at a minimum)

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote: Indyone wrote: [I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
 
-on and on and on and on
 

And guess what my friend.   

The market collective

ALREADY KNOWS ALL OF the stuff you just said.   You think all that stuff is news to the market? come on.

here is the REAL story

1. billions OF PEOPLE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT WILL WORK FOR $1.00 A DAY

=NO INFLATION

2. WITH NO INFLATION THREAT....GOVT CAN STIM TILL THE mf COWS COME HOME.

3. THE MARKET KNOWS ALL THAT STUFF YOU SPEWED OUT (DUH).

4. STOCKS ARE SIMPLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND:

   PEOPLE ARE WAY,WAY,WAY UNDER-INVESTED AND SCARED. (look at trim tabs) (think about your client attitudes)

5. THE STIM IS GOING TO KEEP RATES LOW (STOCK ALTERNATIVES)

6. AND THE BIG ONE.   

THE REAL STORY.

THE REAL WILDCARD THAT IS BEING GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED

THE GLOBAL MF ECONOMY.

do the math.   

its the GD industrial revolution times 100

dont miss the forest for the trees. do the math.

free markets blooming EVERYWHERE across the globe.

position your self for the coming global competition for resources.

duh

think

billions of new people competing for resources.

BRAZIL MIDDLE CLASS, CHINA MIDDLE CLASS, INDIA EATING 3 TIMES A DAY ETC ETC ETC

The labor market angle is HUGE and being missed by many,many people.   

Inflation is what spoils the equity party.

inflation is labor costs.

Go to MF Sam's and look around.

oil was 147
metals
ag etc all making all time highs in 2007

core PPI? 1.2%

stocks are so cheap.

this wall of worry is a wonderful thing

grand pa: You were a stock broker during the monster globle economy emerging! how cool

you must of made a fortune!!! what a no brainer.

well, son...i was kind of afraid and we kept our money in TIPS and tbills.Shania, do you really believe the markets are efficient?

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

dunno

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote:dunnoReason I ask is because you make these assumptions that the "market collective knows" -- as if it were some wise, all-knowing entity that is never wrong.  I disagree.  I think the markets are wildly inefficient, which is why I believe in active management and not passive indexing.  Euro is getting smoked.  I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn't going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels.  This thing is for real.  After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK... Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

NYCTrader wrote: Shania Twain wrote:dunnoReason I ask is because you make these assumptions that the "market collective knows" -- as if it were some wise, all-knowing entity that is never wrong.  I disagree.  I think the markets are wildly inefficient, which is why I believe in active management and not passive indexing.  Euro is getting smoked.  I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn't going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels.  This thing is for real.  After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK... Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.
 
The UK is straight up scary. I'm actually glad there is a problem with Greece. If more people saw some of their debt numbers they would walk around with a perpetual deuce in their pants.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

hello...Greece means nothing to market

just to CNBC.     it's funny

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

NYCTrader wrote:
Shania Twain wrote:dunno

  I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn't going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels.  This thing is for real.  After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK... Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.

spx down 8% after a run from 667 TO 1150 and you're right?

come on.....Friday intra day all you bears get

Latvia.    DO NOT MENTION LATVIA.

PLEASE

latvia.....................omg

(this country debt crap is totally retarded.    stupid.)

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

we were due for 10% down.  Jesus, nothing goes up forever........I think after that we go for a ride.

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote:hello...Greece means nothing to market

just to CNBC.     it's funny

Shania, it's not just Greece.  Are you living under a rock?  Have
looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries? 
You can deny it all you want because it doesn't fit into your bullish
investment thesis, but this is unprecedented and will have global
ramifications.

Moraen's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-01-22

Ireland is worse than any of them.  

Wet_Blanket's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-11-13

Greece does matter.  I sat on a fixed income conference earlier this week and learned a new terminology (when discussing this subject): PIIGS (the countries most likely to be in the same situation (like BRIC): Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

NYCTrader wrote:

looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries? 

yes. Take a look at these ratios in 2007 and 1997 and 1987.....

western europe are socialist....hello.

missed 2000 bubble
missed 2008 bubble

they wont get me again......Im gonna find next bubble......
so idiots make one up.     

leh aint greece

They will restructure
(increase term) of Greece's debt.
Slap their hand.

countries will tighten belt and lower spending (look at US, even Obama talking about spending cuts)

cycles cycles

non-event

ice put it best a few post's back.
companies go chap 11
cycles cycle
strong get stronger
weak die
life goes on

extend terms of weaker NATIONs

non-event

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

hell.

I bet tea party legit.
people sick of govt spending

this is all good

cycles cycle

(dollar rally and carry trade impacting stocks)

greece means nada to stocks

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote: NYCTrader wrote:

looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries? 

yes. Take a look at these ratios in 2007 and 1997 and 1987.....

western europe are socialist....hello.

missed 2000 bubble
missed 2008 bubble

they wont get me again......Im gonna find next bubble......
so idiots make one up.     

leh aint greece

They will restructure
(increase term) of Greece's debt.
Slap their hand.

countries will tighten belt and lower spending (look at US, even Obama talking about spending cuts)

cycles cycles

non-event

ice put it best a few post's back.
companies go chap 11
cycles cycle
strong get stronger
weak die
life goes on

extend terms of weaker NATIONs

non-event

Keep telling yourself it's a non-event.

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Wet_Blanket wrote:Greece does matter.  I sat on a fixed income conference earlier this week and learned a new terminology (when discussing this subject): PIIGS (the countries most likely to be in the same situation (like BRIC): Portugal Ireland Italy Greece SpainYou work in compliance, right?I'll give you a pass on not ever hearing the term PIIGS until this week based on the fact that you don't run money for anyone.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

NYCTrader wrote:

Keep telling yourself it's a non-event.

market will tell us.

bulls made stand just when they needed too

1044 looks like bottom for u bears

i'm betting new highs

please dont mention Latvia again.

what was freak show's name on Taxi? i think of him.

where the F is latvia anyway?

   

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

 

 

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Greece's finance minister

Working on budget to save free world.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Latvia's GDP is 22 MF billion.

22 billion?

That's Vineland, NJ parks dept.

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote: NYCTrader wrote:

Keep telling yourself it's a non-event.

market will tell us.

bulls made stand just when they needed too

1044 looks like bottom for u bears

i'm betting new highs

please dont mention Latvia again.

what was freak show's name on Taxi? i think of him.

where the F is latvia anyway?

   You're think of Latka.  Andy Kaufman. 

Please or Register to post comments.

Industry Newsletters
Investment Category Sponsor Links

 

Sponsored Introduction Continue on to (or wait seconds) ×