The Future of Our Business

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Sailor25's picture
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Joined: 2005-04-09

Whether we like it or not, things change, especially in our business.

I have been in business for 24 years. I remember when you could do
$100M in bonds, and go home for the day. Mutual funds paid 8.75%, and
you won televisions for $100M in a US Govt. bond fund, and trips to
Hawaii and Europe for just $1MM. And the clients never knew.

I also remember when these things weren't considered ethically-challenged. Thank goodness things are changing.

Our industry has taken great leaps toward transparency and objectivity,
though with much kicking and screaming. The transparency of pricing
changes things for us. What is necessary in todays investment advisor
is a skill set quite different from the salesmanship skills of the
perfected handshake and the happy cold call.

Todays investment advisor has
to be different. Today's advisor must work in a bueiness where clients
know what they're paying. This presents the true pros on our business
with an enormous opportunity. True pros will learn to be
"practitioners," rather than salesman. True professionals will offer
services that clients will value enough to pay fees. The only way that
can happen is if we educate ourselves, gather assets, and prepare for
the deluge that will wipe out nearly half of us from the business in
the next few years.

logan's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-08

Sailor25 wrote:prepare for the deluge that will wipe out nearly half of us from the business in the next few years.
 
What is the "deluge" that will wipe half out?

Sailor25's picture
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Joined: 2005-04-09

Don't you see the changes happening now? Since 2001, the ranks of brokers have shrunk dramatically. It's not going to stop here.

With visible fees, it's going to require much greater assets for an
advisor to make a living. People with $10MM books are going to fall
away. Soon, you're going to need $100MM and more.

There are too many people unqualified for these changes. You won't
survive on a small book. You are not going to be able to sell annuities
and mutual funds with hidden fees.

With price transparency, clients will balk at paying, unless they know
they have a professional working for them, rather than a salesman
pitching product.

inquisitive's picture
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Joined: 2005-04-10

I predict that the industry is going to eventually eliminate
commissioned advisors and pay salaried people to service those accounts
as they continue to gather assets and delegate management to outside
money managers.

Soothsayer's picture
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Joined: 2005-02-24

inquisitive wrote:I predict that the industry is going to eventually eliminate commissioned advisors and pay salaried people to service those accounts as they continue to gather assets and delegate management to outside money managers.
Just wait 'til BigPayDay sees this.  I think you might be stretching a little bit, but agree with the idea in premise.  If it turns out to be true, EDJ is in trouble. 

logan's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-08

Ahh...New to field ( well not even in it yet) and really did not know what he was speaking of.

radernation-1's picture
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Joined: 2005-06-07

I agree with most of what you guys have posted already. However, I also believe that a person who can specialize in certain areas will be ok. For example a broker who can focus on areas like stocks that relate to the growth in China and India will be able to do ok. Also I feel that those brokers that study  the financial markets and can talk about the potential weakness ahead for the Us Dollar ,and the investment cycle that we are in  now which is Tangible Assets (gold ,silver, oil, water) seperates you from the person who is selling the same American Funds with the 5.5% load. I am not demeaning them in any way because I offer them as well. In addition I believe that mutual fund wrap accounts may not be the bargain people think they are. When you are talking about fees on a quarterly basis in addition to funds that have a ratio of 1to 1.5% that can eat into returns. In addition turning the clients money over to a third party may take some of the personal touch that a client hopes to have with you. Another area that I believe can do well are Military and weapons stocks. We are in a war that may be lasting for a long while .So in essence we are in a war economy . Having said all this the financial pro that can become an expert in one to two areas will have an advantage and have more staying power.People will pay for good quality service and advice. Like my friend who does Long Term care only says," Do you want someone that does long term care 1 hour a week or 50 hours a week?" Commisions will always have a place in the investment world.

Philo Kvetch's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-17

Change happens in all businesses...it's inevitible.  Those who can, adapt.  Those who can't, well, find something else to do.  It's evolution, and in my humble opinion, a good thing.

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

radernation-1 wrote:

I
agree with most of what you guys have posted already. However, I also
believe that a person who can specialize in certain areas will be ok.
For example a broker who can focus on areas like stocks that relate to
the growth in China and India will be able to do ok. Also I feel that
those brokers that study  the financial markets and can talk about
the potential weakness ahead for the Us Dollar ,and the investment
cycle that we are in  now which is Tangible Assets (gold ,silver,
oil, water) seperates you from the person who is selling the same
American Funds with the 5.5% load. I am not demeaning them in any way
because I offer them as well. In addition I believe that mutual fund
wrap accounts may not be the bargain people think they are. When you
are talking about fees on a quarterly basis in addition to funds that
have a ratio of 1to 1.5% that can eat into returns. In addition turning
the clients money over to a third party may take some of the personal
touch that a client hopes to have with you. Another area that I believe
can do well are Military and weapons stocks. We are in a war that may
be lasting for a long while .So in essence we are in a war economy .
Having said all this the financial pro that can become an expert in one
to two areas will have an advantage and have more staying power.People
will pay for good quality service and advice. Like my friend who does
Long Term care only says," Do you want someone that does long term care
1 hour a week or 50 hours a week?" Commisions will always have a place
in the investment world.

So when you're the China/India expert....what do you do if those markets slow down?

radernation-1's picture
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Joined: 2005-06-07

All markets slow down at some point . Those would be chances to buy. Take Gold and Silver stocks. A lot of them have pulled back in the last 6-9 months.China is importing 2.5 million barrels of oil and they expect that to increase to 8.5 by 2030  Mr Buffett has a nice position in PetroChina.  The Tangible asset cycle we are in now ties to China/India. By marrying up the ideas above and doing some research it seperates you from others . Then it opens up the door for you to offer Franklin Templeton funds or whatever.  If you are looking for a good link I might try www.completeinvestor.com  or look up Dr Steven Leeb

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

radernation-1 wrote:

All
markets slow down at some point . Those would be chances to buy. Take
Gold and Silver stocks. A lot of them have pulled back in the last 6-9
months.China is importing 2.5 million barrels of oil and they expect
that to increase to 8.5 by 2030  Mr Buffett has a nice position in
PetroChina.  The Tangible asset cycle we are in now ties to
China/India. By marrying up the ideas above and doing some research it
seperates you from others . Then it opens up the door for you to offer
Franklin Templeton funds or whatever.  If you are looking for a
good link I might try www.completeinvestor.com  or look up Dr Steven Leeb

Leeb was promoting his whole spiel for a long time, and he was finally
right, for at least a little while.  Meanwhile, though, look at
how much gold stocks have been hit in the last few months.....

stanwbrown's picture
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Joined: 2004-12-01

inquisitive wrote:I predict that the industry is going to eventually eliminate commissioned advisors and pay salaried people to service those accounts as they continue to gather assets and delegate management to outside money managers.
You may be able to pay salaries to people who simply service accounts, but you'll never be able to hire the risk takers that are good at gathering assets (which is more important to the firm than simply servicing existing accounts) with a salary.

radernation-1's picture
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Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.

stanwbrown's picture
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radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

Cowboy93's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-10

Seems like there are 2 issues here:
Sailor suggests that transparency-creep may put pressure on commissions, fees, etc; for example, what will clients think if/when mutual fund expense ratios are stated in DOLLAR terms on their statements?  The 1% for advice on a C share may become harder to sell....and what if comissions on funds/wrap fees are deregulated somewhow?  In other words, the game change if I can charge someone I don't really want to work with 5.5% on A shares, but a good (but small) client I can charge 2%.
The other issue is that there will always be asset classes in favor that have low correlations to out of favor ones....that's true and important for us to understand, but still doesn't change the fact that many people are overpaid in this business for saying, "these are great funds....that'll be 5%!"
 

tjc45's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-06

stanwbrown wrote:
You may be able to pay salaries to people who simply service accounts, but you'll never be able to hire the risk takers that are good at gathering assets (which is more important to the firm than simply servicing existing accounts) with a salary.

I'm with stan on this one. When the suits manage to turn this into a job most of the talent will flee. Too many other ways to make a living on your own hard work and ingenuity to stay with something that isn't doing that anymore. Yet, I don't see that happening. Not so long ago with the emergence of E-Trade everyone said our side of the biz was headed for the tar pits. Who was it who said rumors of his demise had been being greatly overstated? 5 years later and our side is gaining assets, not losing them. I do believe that the management suite will continue to reduce our slice of the pie. We're the biggest cost and the easiest target when it comes to increasing profits.
The other part of this topic, gaining client assets through asset distribution to China,metals,etc.? OK, if you say so. I have yet to meet a prospect, client, rollover recepient, Trust fund baby, business owner or any other investor who gives a sh*t. I don't think anyone has ever forked over their life's savings to me because of the investments I planned to make. They bought me, not an asset allocation model. It was and is assumed that I will make the right investments for them and make changes as necessary. It has nothing to do with correlating asset classes, efficient frontiers, sharpes ratios or anything else we can dream up to try to justify a fee. Not that there's anything wrong with those things, they can help us to do the  job, just that they have nothing to do with why people do business with us. Thus, have nothing to do with our ability to gather assets.

dashampersand's picture
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Joined: 2004-12-22

I tried to start a thread recently involving this issue and got nowhere so I'll try again within this thread.  When Great Britain went with greater transparency the number of brokers was reduced by about 50%.  Because so much of what we sell or advise our clients to buy has become commoditized, only those consultants bringing value to the table will be able to survive and prosper.  What are you doing to add client value?

tjc45's picture
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dashampersand wrote:I tried to start a thread recently involving this issue and got nowhere so I'll try again within this thread.  When Great Britain went with greater transparency the number of brokers was reduced by about 50%.  Because so much of what we sell or advise our clients to buy has become commoditized, only those consultants bringing value to the table will be able to survive and prosper.  What are you doing to add client value?
I apologise up front if I'm misinterpretating your post, but you seem to be hung up on pricing. Our business has always been about delivering the best value. That is, value as perceived by the buyer. From that point of view nothing has changed. As long as there are people who either can't or won't do this for themselves our business will thrive. There are those who will never pay our price and those who gladly pay it. It's not about price, it's about trust. 
The next ten years will see trillions of dollars of money in motion as the lions share of the boomers retire and at the same time inherit from their parents. A high percentage of these people are the same investors who burned themselves with E-trade in 01 and 02. I can here it now, "Honey, I know I lost most of our investment account on JD Uniphase and Ballard Power, but I want to take the dough from  mom's estate and buy some more stocks, I'll do better this time!" To which his wife will reply "Why don't you take it down to the casino and put it all on the Don't Pass line. At least that way you won't be kidding yourself about what your doing and the pain will be over fast." Many of our target market tried the do it yourself route and it wasn't pretty.
All kidding aside, there will will always be a place for good advisors.

radernation-1's picture
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Well Stan you  would have needed to pay attention to my ongoing conversation with Joe Da Brkr to get a clue on what I was talking about earlier.

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

doright's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-02

It's going to be a lot harder for product pushers to survive. Only those that are positioned properly will survive. You must create a trusting relationship with clients and deliver more than just returns. Soon as their portfolio loose (1 out of every 4 yrs is negative) the client will bolt. Unless, you offer more. A true advisor/planner starts with the financial plan and conducts meetings at least 2 times a yr. If you're not staying in touch with your clients on a periodic basis why shouldn't they just buy no-loads or ETFs?

People should get something for the fees. Don't tell me you're picking superior funds, everything regresses to the mean in the long run.

radernation-1's picture
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Do right, I agree with you regarding those that are well positioned will survive. You have to give them value otherwise they will bolt. Thats why I believe that doing the little things like sending them reports on their stocks twice a year, semiannual meetings to go over their 401k etc. are very important.

doright wrote:It's going to be a lot harder for product pushers to survive. Only those that are positioned properly will survive. You must create a trusting relationship with clients and deliver more than just returns. Soon as their portfolio loose (1 out of every 4 yrs is negative) the client will bolt. Unless, you offer more. A true advisor/planner starts with the financial plan and conducts meetings at least 2 times a yr. If you're not staying in touch with your clients on a periodic basis why shouldn't they just buy no-loads or ETFs? People should get something for the fees. Don't tell me you're picking superior funds, everything regresses to the mean in the long run.

radernation-1's picture
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When you say the clients are buying "me" I agree with you . At the same time if "me" does not perform then then the client will be leaving "you" Investment performance counts and being able to think against the grain helps as well. How many prospects hear about the same old Va with 5% guarantee rate of return. I don't know who you are meeting in terms of clients but I get concerned when a client does not ask me about my investment style. We are in a different era of investing where the standard buy and hold strategy of mutual funds may not be the best strategy . And then the client gets upset because he is losing money and his neighbor may be making money in this new era of Tangible Assets . All I'm saying is he/she who can make it a point to study these markets will have an edge over the "hold and hope" strategy that is prevelant still today. Relationships are great but business is business. It all boils down to making money for the client. If they see that you know your sh## and can explain it to them in Laymans Terms you will build a better relationship and be able to gather more assets .

tjc45 wrote:stanwbrown wrote:
You may be able to pay salaries to people who simply service accounts, but you'll never be able to hire the risk takers that are good at gathering assets (which is more important to the firm than simply servicing existing accounts) with a salary.

I'm with stan on this one. When the suits manage to turn this into a job most of the talent will flee. Too many other ways to make a living on your own hard work and ingenuity to stay with something that isn't doing that anymore. Yet, I don't see that happening. Not so long ago with the emergence of E-Trade everyone said our side of the biz was headed for the tar pits. Who was it who said rumors of his demise had been being greatly overstated? 5 years later and our side is gaining assets, not losing them. I do believe that the management suite will continue to reduce our slice of the pie. We're the biggest cost and the easiest target when it comes to increasing profits.
The other part of this topic, gaining client assets through asset distribution to China,metals,etc.? OK, if you say so. I have yet to meet a prospect, client, rollover recepient, Trust fund baby, business owner or any other investor who gives a sh*t. I don't think anyone has ever forked over their life's savings to me because of the investments I planned to make. They bought me, not an asset allocation model. It was and is assumed that I will make the right investments for them and make changes as necessary. It has nothing to do with correlating asset classes, efficient frontiers, sharpes ratios or anything else we can dream up to try to justify a fee. Not that there's anything wrong with those things, they can help us to do the  job, just that they have nothing to do with why people do business with us. Thus, have nothing to do with our ability to gather assets.

stanwbrown's picture
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radernation-1 wrote:

Well Stan you  would have needed to pay attention to my ongoing conversation with Joe Da Brkr to get a clue on what I was talking about earlier.

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

I read it, I just don't buy the theory or the concept of using the podunk "firm" of two people you gave us the website for. I still remember the price path metals took from 1976 to 2004. Hardly a place to seek refuge there...

troll's picture
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stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Well
Stan you  would have needed to pay attention to my ongoing
conversation with Joe Da Brkr to get a clue on what I was talking about
earlier.

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

I read it, I just don't buy the theory or the concept of using the
podunk "firm" of two people you gave us the website for. I still
remember the price path metals took from 1976 to 2004. Hardly a place
to seek refuge there...

No offense Rader, but when folks start talking about "The Era of Hard
Assets" and quoting Stephen Leeb, he of big-lettered promotional
newsletter fame, I know that I'm glad I sold my Newmont Mining for a
handsome profit around 42.......

tjc45's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-06

This has gotten interesting.  My job, as I see it, is to help my clients achieve their financial goals. That's done by first establishing trust. Once the relationship is built, it will survive bad investments and bad markets. Both are going to happen. A client who trusts you will give you a certain amount of rope. And I don't care how good you are, everyone of you will use some of that rope. There will always be a better investment than what you've got in your client's portfolio. Your clients have to go no farther than their local hardresser to hear all about it. Performance based relationships are a short lived mistake. If nothing else, take that on experience.
As for product pushing, I push product, Tax Free Bonds. Yeah, I'm a dinosaur, but I'm also eatting  lot of "FEE ADVISORS" lunch. I use the bonds to gain a seat at the table(TRUST). Once there I deliver service that most advisors can't or won't match. It's only a matter of time before I have all the assets or a sizable chunk. If nothing else I've got a bond buyer to work with and the advisor in the #1 chair has to deal with me. Ironically, it is performance that drives the first trade. Call it an appeal to greed. I call it human nature. Everyone is looking for the best yield/returns/deal. I give them that on the bonds I offer. It's simple, and it works. The biggest producers that i know of in this business are product pushers. If we're on the way out it's news to us.

radernation-1's picture
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Stan if I may correct you Gold and Silver had a nice run up from 2000-2002. So when The Nas was dropping from 5000 to 1200+ Metals and their stocks did very well. As far as the Pondunk website is concerned the Radio Sjow has featured people like Jim Rogers ,Mike Norman, Rick Maybury, Bob Chapman, and Dave Morgan. I am sure you have heard at least 1-2 names on their. Since you like web sites go to www.financialsenseonline.com

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Well Stan you  would have needed to pay attention to my ongoing conversation with Joe Da Brkr to get a clue on what I was talking about earlier.

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

I read it, I just don't buy the theory or the concept of using the podunk "firm" of two people you gave us the website for. I still remember the price path metals took from 1976 to 2004. Hardly a place to seek refuge there...

radernation-1's picture
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TJC I agree get in the door with something and go from there .I am doing it as well and it works for me.

tjc45 wrote:
This has gotten interesting.  My job, as I see it, is to help my clients achieve their financial goals. That's done by first establishing trust. Once the relationship is built, it will survive bad investments and bad markets. Both are going to happen. A client who trusts you will give you a certain amount of rope. And I don't care how good you are, everyone of you will use some of that rope. There will always be a better investment than what you've got in your client's portfolio. Your clients have to go no farther than their local hardresser to hear all about it. Performance based relationships are a short lived mistake. If nothing else, take that on experience.
As for product pushing, I push product, Tax Free Bonds. Yeah, I'm a dinosaur, but I'm also eatting  lot of "FEE ADVISORS" lunch. I use the bonds to gain a seat at the table(TRUST). Once there I deliver service that most advisors can't or won't match. It's only a matter of time before I have all the assets or a sizable chunk. If nothing else I've got a bond buyer to work with and the advisor in the #1 chair has to deal with me. Ironically, it is performance that drives the first trade. Call it an appeal to greed. I call it human nature. Everyone is looking for the best yield/returns/deal. I give them that on the bonds I offer. It's simple, and it works. The biggest producers that i know of in this business are product pushers. If we're on the way out it's news to us.

radernation-1's picture
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Joe , no offense to you but very few people are talking Tangible Assets if you look at some of the stocks that have performed well like Cvx , Apa, Wtr, Ptr,Gold has went from low 200s to low 400s Silver from 4.53 to 7 dollars plus.In addition we are in a huge trade deficit , the consumer is getting tapped out, and we have a housing bubble forming. The long term trend favors a weak dollar and the Dow ,Naz ,and S&P have been flat. And if you want some good info go to www.financialsenseonline.com

joedabrkr wrote: stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Well Stan you  would have needed to pay attention to my ongoing conversation with Joe Da Brkr to get a clue on what I was talking about earlier.

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

I read it, I just don't buy the theory or the concept of using the podunk "firm" of two people you gave us the website for. I still remember the price path metals took from 1976 to 2004. Hardly a place to seek refuge there...No offense Rader, but when folks start talking about "The Era of Hard Assets" and quoting Stephen Leeb, he of big-lettered promotional newsletter fame, I know that I'm glad I sold my Newmont Mining for a handsome profit around 42.......

radernation-1's picture
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Or try just typing in Financial sense online on Yahoo

radernation-1 wrote:

Joe , no offense to you but very few people are talking Tangible Assets if you look at some of the stocks that have performed well like Cvx , Apa, Wtr, Ptr,Gold has went from low 200s to low 400s Silver from 4.53 to 7 dollars plus.In addition we are in a huge trade deficit , the consumer is getting tapped out, and we have a housing bubble forming. The long term trend favors a weak dollar and the Dow ,Naz ,and S&P have been flat. And if you want some good info go to www.financialsenseonline.com

joedabrkr wrote: stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Well Stan you  would have needed to pay attention to my ongoing conversation with Joe Da Brkr to get a clue on what I was talking about earlier.

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

I read it, I just don't buy the theory or the concept of using the podunk "firm" of two people you gave us the website for. I still remember the price path metals took from 1976 to 2004. Hardly a place to seek refuge there...No offense Rader, but when folks start talking about "The Era of Hard Assets" and quoting Stephen Leeb, he of big-lettered promotional newsletter fame, I know that I'm glad I sold my Newmont Mining for a handsome profit around 42.......

radernation-1's picture
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Or try just typing in Financial Sense Online on Yahoo

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Well Stan you  would have needed to pay attention to my ongoing conversation with Joe Da Brkr to get a clue on what I was talking about earlier.

stanwbrown wrote:radernation-1 wrote:

Long Term trends still favor them and silver. www.buysilvernow.com   Sunday mornings from 7-9am p.s.t. Hard Money Watch -Financial Trends in the Marketplace you can go to www.kfnn.com and listen online.
 
What a steamy load.....

I read it, I just don't buy the theory or the concept of using the podunk "firm" of two people you gave us the website for. I still remember the price path metals took from 1976 to 2004. Hardly a place to seek refuge there...

stanwbrown's picture
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Joined: 2004-12-01

Metals did well terrible market after they, themselves, came out of a 20 year bear market. Ever heard the phrase "dead cat bounce"? How’d you like to be the guy that bought gold (“Can’t miss, pal. They ain’t making any more and the Chinese are gobbling all there is of it up”) in 1976 @ nearly $1000?<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
As to your "buysilvernow" website run by a married couple (or their radio show) as a source for a rep for investment info, you must be kidding. These are the usual massive markup types that come out of the woodwork when the market gets tough to peddle "can't lose" hard assets and disappear when metals go back to sleep and the market gets back to work. Much like the “buy real estate with no money down” types, they’re hucksters.
I really detest the doom and gloomers who preach about the coming financial collapse when the only thing between you and ruin is the gold coins they want to sell you (with big mark-ups and massive spreads). Spare me the endless talk about the coming calamity of trade deficits (we’ve been hearing that for 30 years) real estate bubbles and the consumer being “tapped out”.
My clients all own a percentage of alternative assets, but they own them in much more portable forms, without the big mark-ups and spreads and they don’t speculate on “bags of coins”. There are much smarter ways to participate in commodities than that.
What sort of firm are you with, btw?
Finally, wtf was even vaguely useful to a professional on “financialsenseonline”??????
 

radernation-1's picture
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They have been in Business since 1982 and they have been doing their show since 1989 by the way Gold topped out at 800$ in 1980 and Silver was at 50$ Financial Sense Online is a very good site for information Jim Pupulava is a very knowledgable person who has been managing money for over 30 years .In addition I would hope you don't think that Jim Rogers  is an idiot he buys into the same strategy . By the way I also pointed out that Gold and Silver STOCKS have done well during 2000-02 and today Oil and Water stocks have outperformed the major indices. If you want to still believe that the "hold and Hope" investment theory will work today thats your choice. If you want to listen to the talking heads on Tv and believe their word is gospel go ahead. I am not a gloom and doomer . I believe prepare for the worst and expect the best. I am saying that holding some physical silver and gold and investing in Natural Resources stocks can be a good protection/hedge against some of the economic troubles laying ahead. I might suggest reading The Financial Times on a regular basis and Financial Sense Online. As far as my firm I am an indy. I have been since I got into the industry.

stanwbrown wrote:
Metals did well terrible market after they, themselves, came out of a 20 year bear market. Ever heard the phrase "dead cat bounce"? How’d you like to be the guy that bought gold (“Can’t miss, pal. They ain’t making any more and the Chinese are gobbling all there is of it up”) in 1976 @ nearly $1000?<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><?:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O />
As to your "buysilvernow" website run by a married couple (or their radio show) as a source for a rep for investment info, you must be kidding. These are the usual massive markup types that come out of the woodwork when the market gets tough to peddle "can't lose" hard assets and disappear when metals go back to sleep and the market gets back to work. Much like the “buy real estate with no money down” types, they’re hucksters.
I really detest the doom and gloomers who preach about the coming financial collapse when the only thing between you and ruin is the gold coins they want to sell you (with big mark-ups and massive spreads). Spare me the endless talk about the coming calamity of trade deficits (we’ve been hearing that for 30 years) real estate bubbles and the consumer being “tapped out”.
My clients all own a percentage of alternative assets, but they own them in much more portable forms, without the big mark-ups and spreads and they don’t speculate on “bags of coins”. There are much smarter ways to participate in commodities than that.
What sort of firm are you with, btw?
Finally, wtf was even vaguely useful to a professional on “financialsenseonline”??????
 

radernation-1's picture
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By the way you don't think the consumer is going to be tapped out? The avg cc debt is 8000 per household people are buying more house than they can afford with Interest Only loans? . The avg savings rate is 1% of total income!

stanwbrown wrote:
Metals did well terrible market after they, themselves, came out of a 20 year bear market. Ever heard the phrase "dead cat bounce"? How’d you like to be the guy that bought gold (“Can’t miss, pal. They ain’t making any more and the Chinese are gobbling all there is of it up”) in 1976 @ nearly $1000?<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><?:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O />
As to your "buysilvernow" website run by a married couple (or their radio show) as a source for a rep for investment info, you must be kidding. These are the usual massive markup types that come out of the woodwork when the market gets tough to peddle "can't lose" hard assets and disappear when metals go back to sleep and the market gets back to work. Much like the “buy real estate with no money down” types, they’re hucksters.
I really detest the doom and gloomers who preach about the coming financial collapse when the only thing between you and ruin is the gold coins they want to sell you (with big mark-ups and massive spreads). Spare me the endless talk about the coming calamity of trade deficits (we’ve been hearing that for 30 years) real estate bubbles and the consumer being “tapped out”.
My clients all own a percentage of alternative assets, but they own them in much more portable forms, without the big mark-ups and spreads and they don’t speculate on “bags of coins”. There are much smarter ways to participate in commodities than that.
What sort of firm are you with, btw?
Finally, wtf was even vaguely useful to a professional on “financialsenseonline”??????
 

stanwbrown's picture
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radernation-1 wrote:

By the way you don't think the consumer is going to be tapped out? The avg cc debt is 8000 per household people are buying more house than they can afford with Interest Only loans? . The avg savings rate is 1% of total income!

stanwbrown wrote:
Metals did well terrible market after they, themselves, came out of a 20 year bear market. Ever heard the phrase "dead cat bounce"? How’d you like to be the guy that bought gold (“Can’t miss, pal. They ain’t making any more and the Chinese are gobbling all there is of it up”) in 1976 @ nearly $1000?<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><?:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O />
As to your "buysilvernow" website run by a married couple (or their radio show) as a source for a rep for investment info, you must be kidding. These are the usual massive markup types that come out of the woodwork when the market gets tough to peddle "can't lose" hard assets and disappear when metals go back to sleep and the market gets back to work. Much like the “buy real estate with no money down” types, they’re hucksters.
I really detest the doom and gloomers who preach about the coming financial collapse when the only thing between you and ruin is the gold coins they want to sell you (with big mark-ups and massive spreads). Spare me the endless talk about the coming calamity of trade deficits (we’ve been hearing that for 30 years) real estate bubbles and the consumer being “tapped out”.
My clients all own a percentage of alternative assets, but they own them in much more portable forms, without the big mark-ups and spreads and they don’t speculate on “bags of coins”. There are much smarter ways to participate in commodities than that.
What sort of firm are you with, btw?
Finally, wtf was even vaguely useful to a professional on “financialsenseonline”??????
 

 
We've been hearing the consumer is "tapped out" for decades, just as we heard that the trade deficit will kill us and that Japn Inc will be buying America soon. BTW, you're aware that "average savings" numbers ignore every dollar people have in IRAs, 401ks etc.,, right?

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radernation-1 wrote:

They have been in Business since 1982 and they have been doing their show since 1989 ..

BFD, they are a couple that sells, literally "bags of coins". Confusing speculating on coins with investing is just silly.
radernation-1 wrote:
by the way Gold topped out at 800$ in 1980 and Silver was at 50$

Gold at $800 in 1980 is $2031.73 in 2005 dollars. Some value, eh?
radernation-1 wrote:
Financial Sense Online is a very good site for information

Perhaps I missed the good info, could you post a sample?
radernation-1 wrote:
Jim Pupulava is a very knowledgable person who has been managing money for over 30 years .

You mean Jim Pulava, the guy preaching about the coming "The Perfect Financial Storm"? Who does he manage for?
radernation-1 wrote:
In addition I would hope you don't think that Jim Rogers  is an idiot he buys into the same strategy .

Rogers (who missed the entire 1990s bull market warning about the coming inflation storm) runs a commodity fund. He's a fine example of a broken clock, as anyone who ever saw him on CNBC can tell you.
 
radernation-1 wrote:
By the way I also pointed out that Gold and Silver STOCKS have done well during 2000-02 and today Oil and Water stocks have outperformed the major indices.

They're a sector. Sectors go in and out of favor. That's never changed and it doesn't signal that for the first time in history trees will grow to the sky. For my money, they've had their run, just as deep, deep value had it's run as an investment style, and momentum growth before it.
radernation-1 wrote:
 If you want to still believe that the "hold and Hope" investment theory will work today thats your choice.

See above about sectors and investment styles. You haven't reinvented the wheel or discovered anything of real value just because a given style has had a good run. Buying "bags of coins" isn't the solution. Anyone who preaches a single sector or sytle as "the" solution to coming times is a hopeless hack.
radernation-1 wrote:
If you want to listen to the talking heads on Tv and believe their word is gospel go ahead.

There are plenty of talking heads spouting the same "hard assets" story you are. Again, BFD...
radernation-1 wrote:
I am not a gloom and doomer . I believe prepare for the worst and expect the best. I am saying that holding some physical silver and gold and investing in Natural Resources stocks can be a good protection/hedge against some of the economic troubles laying ahead.

Holding "some" is always a wise move. Just be smart about the form you chose. You can be certain that Jimmy Rodgers isn't buying "bags of coins" from couples that have a radio show and a website.
As to "economic troubles laying ahead", there isn't a time in human history when you can't make this gloom and doom case, and you would have been wrong 95% of the time. You figure there have been no tough economic times since Gold did its swan dive in 1980 (that it is yet to recover from)? You want to talk risk? How's a $1600 and ounce loss in a "protection" asset over a 25 year period sound?
radernation-1 wrote:
" I might suggest reading The Financial Times ...

The FT is on my list of regular reads. You'll find a variety of views there, as you'll find in every real financial publication.
radernation-1 wrote:
...on a regular basis and Financial Sense Online.

Show me something from there you consider worth reading...
radernation-1 wrote:
 As far as my firm I am an indy. I have been since I got into the industry.

I'm betting that's fairly recently and that you sell coins. Call it a hunch...

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Well you are wrong on both counts. I focus on individual stocks and I have been in the industry for over 5 years . As far as showing you something worth reading thats not my job to do. Your a "genius " figure it out yourself. The big money on anything is made when there is blood on the streets. no idiot would buy something at the top and watch it drop in 60-80% in value. Again another example of the "hold and hope" investment strategies that they/their broker believe in. NOW DO NOT MAKE RAIDER FAN ANGRY or YOU WILL BE BANISHED TO THE BLACK HOLE !!!!! And You will wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat and hear the words "I AM YOUR FATHER STAN SKYWALKER!!!!!!!Signed Darth Rader!!!

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radernation-1 wrote: As far as showing you something worth reading thats not my job to do.

Yeah, I figured you couldn't find anything there.... but since you recommended it, I thought I'd let you try..
radernation-1 wrote:
The big money on anything is made when there is blood on the streets. no idiot would buy something at the top and watch it drop in 60-80% in value.

And, of course, you know when you're buying at the top, right? LOL Say, someone buying gold now at $400+, is he buying near/at the top? You figure the "buy hard assets" types were telling people NOT to buy gold in 1980?
radernation-1 wrote:
Again another example of the "hold and hope" investment strategies that they/their broker believe in.

"Hold and hope"... sounds like the motto of someone who not only thinks there's such a thing as a "new era of hard assets", but thinks he can time the market too.
I pity those two clients....
radernation-1 wrote:
NOW DO NOT MAKE RAIDER FAN ANGRY or YOU WILL BE BANISHED TO THE BLACK HOLE !!!!! And You will wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat and hear the words "I AM YOUR FATHER STAN SKYWALKER!!!!!!!Signed Darth Rader!!!
Sounds like it's time for a meds adjustment....
 

radernation-1's picture
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Well Stan I must admit you are fun to go back and forth with. As far as a meds adjustment I wonder what you keep in your medicine cabinet. now I think we have both made a good case for what we believe in so lets call a truce and find something else down the road to go back and forth on. As long as you don't like the Broncos /Chiefs/Chargers I am sure we can get along.

troll's picture
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radernation-1 wrote:Well you are wrong on both counts. I focus on
individual stocks and I have been in the industry for over 5 years . As
far as showing you something worth reading thats not my job to do. Your
a "genius " figure it out yourself. The big money on anything is made
when there is blood on the streets. no idiot would buy something at the
top and watch it drop in 60-80% in value. Again another example of the
"hold and hope" investment strategies that they/their broker believe
in. NOW DO NOT MAKE RAIDER FAN ANGRY or YOU WILL BE BANISHED TO THE
BLACK HOLE !!!!! And You will wake up in the middle of the night in a
cold sweat and hear the words "I AM YOUR FATHER STAN SKYWALKER!!!!!!!Signed Darth Rader!!!

Hey Stan....pay attention now.....he's been in the business for FIVE WHOLE YEARS!!! 

radernation-1's picture
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Its not about experience its about talent and knowledge. Was an Nba player that was in the league for 12 years better than Mj because he had been in the league for only  5 ? I know many "experienced " brokers who have been at it for awhile that lost money for their clients in 2000-02. Thats why they have ACATS! Number of years does not mean sh** .Its what you know and how you use it.

joedabrkr wrote:radernation-1 wrote:Well you are wrong on both counts. I focus on individual stocks and I have been in the industry for over 5 years . As far as showing you something worth reading thats not my job to do. Your a "genius " figure it out yourself. The big money on anything is made when there is blood on the streets. no idiot would buy something at the top and watch it drop in 60-80% in value. Again another example of the "hold and hope" investment strategies that they/their broker believe in. NOW DO NOT MAKE RAIDER FAN ANGRY or YOU WILL BE BANISHED TO THE BLACK HOLE !!!!! And You will wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat and hear the words "I AM YOUR FATHER STAN SKYWALKER!!!!!!!Signed Darth Rader!!!Hey Stan....pay attention now.....he's been in the business for FIVE WHOLE YEARS!!! 

radernation-1's picture
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I AM YOUR FATHER JOE SKYWALKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! By the way I will go with Becky Quick as well!

stanwbrown's picture
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joedabrkr wrote:radernation-1 wrote:Well you are wrong on both counts. I focus on individual stocks and I have been in the industry for over 5 years . As far as showing you something worth reading thats not my job to do. Your a "genius " figure it out yourself. The big money on anything is made when there is blood on the streets. no idiot would buy something at the top and watch it drop in 60-80% in value. Again another example of the "hold and hope" investment strategies that they/their broker believe in. NOW DO NOT MAKE RAIDER FAN ANGRY or YOU WILL BE BANISHED TO THE BLACK HOLE !!!!! And You will wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat and hear the words "I AM YOUR FATHER STAN SKYWALKER!!!!!!!Signed Darth Rader!!!Hey Stan....pay attention now.....he's been in the business for FIVE WHOLE YEARS!!! 
 

BabyFat's picture
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AH stop worrying Spizter and minions won't be Happy till the banks are running the whole show.

troll's picture
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radernation-1 wrote:

Its not about experience its about talent and knowledge. Was an Nba player that was in the league for 12 years better than Mj because he had been in the league for only  5 ? I know many "experienced " brokers who have been at it for awhile that lost money for their clients in 2000-02. Thats why they have ACATS! Number of years does not mean sh** .Its what you know and how you use it.

joedabrkr wrote:radernation-1 wrote:Well you are wrong on both counts. I focus on individual stocks and I have been in the industry for over 5 years . As far as showing you something worth reading thats not my job to do. Your a "genius " figure it out yourself. The big money on anything is made when there is blood on the streets. no idiot would buy something at the top and watch it drop in 60-80% in value. Again another example of the "hold and hope" investment strategies that they/their broker believe in. NOW DO NOT MAKE RAIDER FAN ANGRY or YOU WILL BE BANISHED TO THE BLACK HOLE !!!!! And You will wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat and hear the words "I AM YOUR FATHER STAN SKYWALKER!!!!!!!Signed Darth Rader!!!Hey Stan....pay attention now.....he's been in the business for FIVE WHOLE YEARS!!! 

Unlike the NBA, my little man, this business is an exercise in MENTAL agility and ability, not PHYSICAL ability.
At five years in, I thought I had it all figured out, much like yourself.  Only later did I realize I'd only just begun to learn........as you shall too! 

troll's picture
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and yes I agree Becky Quick is HAWT!  Do you think she's reading this?

beckyquick's picture
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well you should check out my unofficial fan page:
http://www.beckyquick.com
 

Indyone's picture
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Hey cool!  Joe...she IS reading! HAHA!!!

OldDog's picture
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Yeah, but I'll bet she's bummed she didn't lock in that domain name herself.
Or did she.....
Back on topic, Value Added was the mantra of one of my predecessor firms 20 years ago. It's still true today.
In the 70's it was the death of fixed commissions that would do us in. In the 80's it was the discounters and in the 90's it was the index funds. There's always another trend that will cause conventional wisdom to sentence us to the fate of the dinosaurs and make us become oil (just think, perhaps the grandchildren of the grandchildren of my grandchildren will buy what's left of me and use me to power their cars!)
As in any business, if you add value to the equation, AND your clients understand and appreciate the value you add, you will prosper. If you don't, you will fail.
And that, my friends, is the future of our business.

troll's picture
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Indyone wrote:Hey cool!  Joe...she IS reading! HAHA!!!

No way.....somebody is messin' with us!

ezmoney's picture
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The future of our business is great thanks to all the baby boomers who will retire in the next ten years, and who now realize they can't manage their portfolios by themselves.

Indyone's picture
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joedabrkr wrote: Indyone wrote:Hey cool!  Joe...she IS reading! HAHA!!!No way.....somebody is messin' with us!
That's why I was laughin' and winkin'...I assume the same...have serious doubts that the real BQ would have sufficient time to waste on us, but we can dream, can't we man?

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