Last year proved how difficult elections were to forecast, and elections in 2017 may prove no easier. Britain's vote to exit the EU in June 2016 and Donald Trump's election in November 2016 may both be behind us, but populist movements in Europe continue to gain momentum and call for drastic political change this year. Farther from home, Iran's current president may face a tough reelection as he awaits formal action from the Trump White House. And in Asia, Hong Kong's Chief Executive election takes place as relations with China look set to deteriorate further. Uncertainty may be the only certainty that lies ahead.
Will polling and predictions in 2017 be as unreliable as they were for Brexit and Trump in 2016? The market's immediate reactions to both of those surprises were a stock market selloff and a rally in gold and the VIX index. While ultimately the stock market…