Economy vs. Stocks disconnected?
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[quote=Iocaine] [quote=Shania Twain] [quote=SFEZ]
I actually agree with you regarding the opportunities in emerging markets but I think you are underestimating some of the risks out there. For the sake of our industry I hope I am wrong.
I[/quote]
another bear.
I started with ef hutton in 1981
besides after oct 87 crash
ive never been so bullish
no chance…crowd can be right
please. more bears tell me why market has to go down.
deflation
inflation
obama nation
taxes
healthcare
regulation
iran
toxic assets
terrorism
global warming
mad cow
swine flu
Myan calender
blah blah blah
[quote=Shania Twain]Look at that picture.
You think Ronnie ever “held cash”?
Get long you girly men
You think Ronnie’s portfolio looked like this?
10% US dollar
15% 20 year treasuries
15% corporates
15% aggregate bond index
5% short GOLD
10% TIPS
15% BIL
CASH
Gezz man.
Check for a 7-11 and get some depends[/quote]
Not sure how you gauge investor sentiment, but from my perspective the “crowd” is bullish right now, not bearish. I completely agree with you on going against the grain (which is why I went long in January), but now is the time to look around and see that this rally is out of control and take profits. You’ve got the media cheerleading a recovery, you’ve got economists talking about the worst being over, you’ve got dumf*** analysts telling everyone to buy on the dips, you’ve got Cramer talking his usual bullish nonsense, you’ve got momentum guys buying because the trend is your friend til the end, you’ve got the macro guys buying because of the weak dollar, you’ve got fundamentals guys buying because companies are beating cupcake earnings numbers, you’ve got inflation guys buying because stocks beat bonds in an inflationary environment, you’ve got retail investors buying because they have short term memories and the 6 month charts look great, you’ve got the savers buying because cash is yielding 0%. But nobody is buying because the underlying business environment has improved.
1997 4.08% 1.60% 970.43 44.09 15.52
1998 3.11% 1.32% 1229.23 44.27 16.20
1999 3.07% 1.14% 1469.25 51.68 16.71
2000 3.94% 1.23% 1320.28 56.13 16.27
2001 3.85% 1.37% 1148.09 38.85 15.74
2002 5.23% 1.83% 879.82 46.04 16.08
2003 4.87% 1.61% 1111.91 54.69 17.88
2004 5.58% 1.60% 1211.92 67.68 19.407
2005 5.47% 1.79% 1248.29 76.45 22.38
2006 6.18% 1.77% 1418.3 87.72 25.05
2007 5.62% 1.89% 1468.36 82.54 27.73
2008 7.24% 3.11% 903.25 65.39 28.05
s and p earnings full year 2007 82.54
current 2010 s and p earnings estimate 80.56
productivity on fire.
inventories down
companies lean and mean
part time hiring shot up big time
next jobs number will be big upside surprise.
will be adding jobs feb 2010.
low rates
no inflation
global demand
stocks so cheap
A short week with lots of economic numbers …watch out below. stocks are expensive…( with a bad economy getting worse ) reality is just around the corner. Remember your firms screwed up the entire world just to make a buck. they don’t care about you as long as you can cram a PRODUCT down someones throat. It’s their job to brainwash you into thinking things are better than they are. The time has come. You got your resume ready ?
Let me guess. You are Lou.
Some of us have our own firms.
Some advice for you:
A short week to be alone in your basement… watch out above, your stepfather might sh1t on you… (with his diarrhea getting worse)… your boyfriend is not right around the corner. Remember you put yourself in this position, by not working when your firm told you to work, your Mom certainly doesn’t care about you - she just wants to take it from behind from Shania, mlgone, iceco1d and and a few others. It’s her job to make sure you are productive. She failed. Does your new boyfriend have a basement you can move into?
yo mel
didnt take long for the magic man to start on the mel hate-o-aid.
u do that to people.
dow futures up 54. bye bye 08 oct gap.
[quote=Shania Twain] yo mel
didnt take long for the magic man to start on the mel hate-o-aid.
u do that to people.
dow futures up 54. bye bye 08 oct gap.
[/quote]
Hate is such a strong word
“What’s up at Firms?” is the category- how does all this relate to that?
Make your own topic if you don't like this one. Nobody asked you. your a guest here. get lost
[quote=newnew] “What’s up at Firms?” is the category- how does all this relate to that?
Make your own topic if you don't like this one. Nobody asked you. your a guest here. get lost[/quote]
You keep changing your make-up and putting on different wigs... are you trying to hide from me?????