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Economy vs. Stocks disconnected?

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Nov 22, 2009 10:33 pm

[quote=Iocaine] [quote=Shania Twain] [quote=SFEZ]

Your “bull” case is the exact reason why I am bearish. Inflation is not the risk here, it is still deflation. The fed went “all in” to try and stimulate between providing liquidity and low interest rates and they still failed to light a fire under the economy. Guess why, because credit is still contracting and banks are taking that “Free” money, leveraging it 10-1 and buying “riskless” short term treasuries. There is simply no money velocity to create inflation because of our debt situation.



I actually agree with you regarding the opportunities in emerging markets but I think you are underestimating some of the risks out there. For the sake of our industry I hope I am wrong.



I[/quote]



another bear.



I started with ef hutton in 1981

besides after oct 87 crash



ive never been so bullish



no chance…crowd can be right



please.   more bears tell me why market has to go down.



deflation

inflation

obama nation

taxes

healthcare

regulation

iran

toxic assets

terrorism

global warming

mad cow

swine flu

Myan calender

blah blah blah









Nov 22, 2009 11:01 pm

[quote=Shania Twain]Look at that picture.

You think Ronnie ever “held cash”?



Get long you girly men



You think Ronnie’s portfolio looked like this?



10% US dollar

15% 20 year treasuries

15% corporates

15% aggregate bond index

5% short GOLD

10% TIPS

15% BIL

CASH



Gezz man.

Check for a 7-11 and get some depends[/quote]

Not sure how you gauge investor sentiment, but from my perspective the “crowd” is bullish right now, not bearish.  I completely agree with you on going against the grain (which is why I went long in January), but now is the time to look around and see that this rally is out of control and take profits.  You’ve got the media cheerleading a recovery, you’ve got economists talking about the worst being over, you’ve got dumf*** analysts telling everyone to buy on the dips, you’ve got Cramer talking his usual bullish nonsense, you’ve got momentum guys buying because the trend is your friend til the end, you’ve got the macro guys buying because of the weak dollar, you’ve got fundamentals guys buying because companies are beating cupcake earnings numbers, you’ve got inflation guys buying because stocks beat bonds in an inflationary environment, you’ve got retail investors buying because they have short term memories and the 6 month charts look great, you’ve got the savers buying because cash is yielding 0%.  But nobody is buying because the underlying business environment has improved.  

Nov 23, 2009 1:27 am

1997     4.08%     1.60%     970.43     44.09     15.52

1998     3.11%     1.32%     1229.23     44.27     16.20

1999     3.07%     1.14%     1469.25     51.68     16.71

2000     3.94%     1.23%     1320.28     56.13     16.27

2001     3.85%     1.37%     1148.09     38.85     15.74

2002     5.23%     1.83%     879.82     46.04     16.08

2003     4.87%     1.61%     1111.91     54.69     17.88

2004     5.58%     1.60%     1211.92     67.68     19.407

2005     5.47%     1.79%     1248.29     76.45     22.38

2006     6.18%     1.77%     1418.3     87.72     25.05

2007     5.62%     1.89%     1468.36     82.54     27.73

2008     7.24%     3.11%     903.25     65.39     28.05





s and p earnings full year 2007      82.54



current 2010 s and p earnings estimate   80.56





productivity on fire.

inventories down

companies lean and mean



part time hiring shot up big time

next jobs number will be big upside surprise.

will be adding jobs feb 2010.



low rates

no inflation

global demand



stocks so cheap



Nov 23, 2009 2:16 am

A short week with lots of economic numbers …watch out below. stocks are expensive…( with a bad economy getting worse ) reality is just around the corner. Remember your firms screwed up the entire world just to make a buck. they don’t care about you as long as you can cram a PRODUCT down someones throat. It’s their job to brainwash you into thinking things are better than they are. The time has come. You got your resume ready ?

Nov 23, 2009 2:40 am

Let me guess. You are Lou.



Some of us have our own firms.



Some advice for you:



A short week to be alone in your basement… watch out above, your stepfather might sh1t on you… (with his diarrhea getting worse)… your boyfriend is not right around the corner. Remember you put yourself in this position, by not working when your firm told you to work, your Mom certainly doesn’t care about you - she just wants to take it from behind from Shania, mlgone, iceco1d and and a few others. It’s her job to make sure you are productive. She failed. Does your new boyfriend have a basement you can move into?

Nov 23, 2009 2:43 am

Nov 23, 2009 3:51 am

yo mel

didnt take long for the magic man to start on the mel hate-o-aid.

u do that to people.



dow futures up 54.   bye bye 08 oct gap.





Nov 23, 2009 11:41 am

[quote=Shania Twain] yo mel

didnt take long for the magic man to start on the mel hate-o-aid.

u do that to people.



dow futures up 54.   bye bye 08 oct gap.





[/quote]



Hate is such a strong word

Nov 23, 2009 1:05 pm

“What’s up at Firms?” is the category- how does all this relate to that?

Nov 23, 2009 1:23 pm
newnew:

“What’s up at Firms?” is the category- how does all this relate to that?



Make your own topic if you don't like this one. Nobody asked you. your a guest here. get lost
Nov 23, 2009 9:20 pm
BOSS:

[quote=newnew] “What’s up at Firms?” is the category- how does all this relate to that?



Make your own topic if you don't like this one. Nobody asked you. your a guest here. get lost[/quote]

You keep changing your make-up and putting on different wigs... are you trying to hide from me?????