Economy vs. Stocks disconnected?
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[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=shantom1] PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?
Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?
HOLY SH*T are you off your F’in rocker?[/quote]
i hear ya…but the global economy bigger then ANYTHING this guy can do.
your missing forest for trees.
Look at Bubba. he raised taxes etc etc
tech run was bigger then ANYTHING he did.
stay away from us consumer names.
infra
ag
commods
emg markets
"global competition for the world’s resources"
obama is toast
he is under 49& now
independents gone
he went way way too far left
he is done
They will ram though healthcare and midterms will be rep blowout
[/quote]
Too early to predict Obama’s demise. His approval numbers follow a similar to trajectory to Reagan’s numbers in his first 300 days:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm
As far as the state of the global economy. Assets (stocks, real estate, etc) are still overvalued. Consumers and the banking system haven’t completed the necessary de-leveraging to get assets back to reasonable valuations. The spending habits of the emerging middle class BRIC nations won’t be enough to spur trade to '07 levels. Weak dollar is driving this rally. Not underlying business conditions. It’s a sucker’s rally. Read Bill Gross.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Midnight+Candles+Gross+November.htm
Bill Gross has lifted narcissism to a new level. Any chance to mug for a tv camera. Hey Bill, get a haircut, you flamer. Combovers went out with disco.
[quote=amfUBS]Bill Gross has lifted narcissism to a new level. Any chance to mug for a tv camera. Hey Bill, get a haircut, you flamer. Combovers went out with disco. [/quote]
Call him a narcissist with a bad haircut. It doesn’t mean he’s not right.
Global Growth story already taking hold, big time. You don’t have to be a US investor to make money in this market. Go where the opportunity is. Some emerging markets BECOMING real markets to play in. Middle class is emerging in China and India. Global Growth is the story. Don’t be short all the way, just hedge and fasten your seatbelt
WRONG WRONG WRONG ALL WORLD MKTS ARE PART OF A HUGE BUBBLE THAT WILL ALL POP AT ONCE. QUIT PAYING ATTENTION TO YOU FIRM AND THE BONEHEADS ON CNBC.THEY ARE ALL SIMPLY TRYING TO SELL PRODUCTS
What if one works for a firm that doesn't manufacture products and doesn't watch CNBC?[quote=mlgone] Global Growth story already taking hold, big time. You don’t have to be a US investor to make money in this market. Go where the opportunity is. Some emerging markets BECOMING real markets to play in. Middle class is emerging in China and India. Global Growth is the story. Don’t be short all the way, just hedge and fasten your seatbelt[/quote]
WRONG WRONG WRONG ALL WORLD MKTS ARE PART OF A HUGE BUBBLE THAT WILL ALL POP AT ONCE. QUIT PAYING ATTENTION TO YOU FIRM AND THE BONEHEADS ON CNBC.THEY ARE ALL SIMPLY TRYING TO SELL PRODUCTS
It is hard to get excited about the situation we are in. If the rally is on and the recession is over why are interest rates still sitting at crisis levels? What do you think would happen to this rally if the fed were to raise interest rates? Can you imagine what a few extra % rise in interest rates would do to affordability in an already inflated housing market? The fundamental problem of housing and bad assets has not been addressed in this crisis and all we are doing with interest rates at zero is trying to kick the can down the road for a little while longer. Banks are sitting on forclosed properties for fear of flooding and further depressing the housing market or trying to work out forclose/lease deals with struggling homeowners. Jobs are still being lost which is only going to compound the housing/banking/credit problems. Credit is still being withdrawn from consumers and small business at a record pace, which will continue to cause deflationary pressures.
With credit still contracting, where will the leverage come from to sustain a rally? One small example, I have a client who owns a local Volvo dealership. They sold 75 new cars in the month of September as cash for clunkers was winding down. It was one of the best Septembers they have ever had. That was followed with 5 (FIVE) new cars in the month of October which was their worst month in history. With few exceptions, EVERY small business owner I interface with, regardless of industry, paints a similar picture of business prospects. Large public companies have been able to outlast competition and cut costs but most smaller businesses are still in a world of hurt. Should be interesting to see what happens, lots of smart people are calling for a continued rally or a fall off the cliff, somthing has to give. I hope I am wrong because of the implications to our industry but count me on the bearish side of this argument. I[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=shantom1] PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?
Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?
HOLY SH*T are you off your F’in rocker?[/quote]
i hear ya…but the global economy bigger then ANYTHING this guy can do.
your missing forest for trees.
Look at Bubba. he raised taxes etc etc
tech run was bigger then ANYTHING he did.
stay away from us consumer names.
infra
ag
commods
emg markets
"global competition for the world’s resources"
obama is toast
he is under 49& now
independents gone
he went way way too far left
he is done
They will ram though healthcare and midterms will be rep blowout
[/quote]Too early to predict Obama’s demise. His approval numbers follow a similar to trajectory to Reagan’s numbers in his first 300 days: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htmAs far as the state of the global economy. Assets (stocks, real estate, etc) are still overvalued. Consumers and the banking system haven’t completed the necessary de-leveraging to get assets back to reasonable valuations. The spending habits of the emerging middle class BRIC nations won’t be enough to spur trade to '07 levels. Weak dollar is driving this rally. Not underlying business conditions. It’s a sucker’s rally. Read Bill Gross.http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Midnight+Candles+Gross+November.htm [/quote]
More bears.
REMEMBER. everyone bearish
no one left to sell
no one left to sell
no one left to sell
no one left to sell
no one left to sell
(always remember, prices ARE simply supply and demand)
keep shortin it
more cash
keep selling
Can another bear else please tell me how bad stuff is?
I want to hear some more reasons why we are going lower
drive through guy at mcDonalds is a bear.
here is your happy meal.
have a great day
stocks are going lower
look at 82 to 86. as we climb this insane wall of worry.
The trap is cash/govies
(Bill Gross is a smart man. although remember talking his book is bonds not stocks
Well, ladies and gentlemen we’re not here to indulge in fantasy but in political and economic reality. America, America has become a second-rate power. Its trade deficit and its fiscal deficit are at nightmare proportions. Now, in the days of the free market when our country was a top industrial power, there was accountability to the stockholder. The Carnegies, the Mellons, the men that built this great industrial empire, made sure of it because it was their money at stake. Today, management has no stake in the company! You own the company. That’s right, you, the stockholder. And you are all being royally screwed over by these, these bureaucrats, with their luncheons, their hunting and fishing trips, their corporate jets and golden parachutes.
Nay.
Obama nation is done. he is under 50% now.
independents gone.
let em ram through healthcare
2010 will be the largest repub blow out in history
NJ and virgina tip of iceberg
he conned people. people expected a moderate.
He is done.
and it will be like jimmy/ronnie
Mitt’s acceptance speech will be like Ronnie in 1980.
romney/palin
gov_romneyfree_image-798232.jpg824×1024
I don’t go to bed with no whore, and I don’t wake up with no whore. That’s how I live with myself. I don’t know how you do it.
[quote=Shania Twain]Nay.
Obama nation is done. he is under 50% now.
independents gone.
let em ram through healthcare
2010 will be the largest repub blow out in history
NJ and virgina tip of iceberg
he conned people. people expected a moderate.
He is done.
and it will be like jimmy/ronnie
Mitt’s acceptance speech will be like Ronnie in 1980.
romney/palin
QUOTE]
[quote=SFEZ][quote=Shania Twain]Nay.
Obama nation is done. he is under 50% now.
independents gone.
let em ram through healthcare
2010 will be the largest repub blow out in history
NJ and virgina tip of iceberg
he conned people. people expected a moderate.
He is done.
and it will be like jimmy/ronnie
Mitt’s acceptance speech will be like Ronnie in 1980.
romney/palin
QUOTE]
[quote=LA Broker]
The market does not affect most voters. Last year it did more than most due to the extreme volatility. The Dems will be pushed out because people are sick of the the healthcare bill..[/quote] I think most people don't trust the government to take over healthcare, but realize it will probably happen.......in some form..... That being said......By late next year, they should know the real effect of the changes.......any changes in cost and whether they can still go to their current doctors......If those 2 factors aren't affected or are affected minimally, then it may be a non-event politically..... If, things remain bad........unemployment, the housing market, inflation (gas, food, etc...)....those will make people vote one way or the other......So, if things remain poor or even get worse, the Dems are out....But, as a consequence, the market likely has a tough year.... On the other hand, if things are better, the Dems stay in power......and, as a consequence, the market may have a great year....... So, it's tough to be bullish if you think these policies will fail........and it's tough to be bullish if you think they will fail so badly that there will be a change in the political landscape of the country......[quote=SFEZ]
If the market continues higher for the next year…and the DOW hits, let’s say 12K by election day 2010, it’ll be because things have gotten better on the unemployment numbers…as well as some of the other problems…And if that happens, the Dems hold onto their edge.
You can’t have it both ways…The reason the Dems swept the 2008 elections was because of the economic mess…The Republicans need numbers to stay poor to overtake the Dems in the mid-term elections…
If you think/want the Republicans to reclaim a majority in either or both the Senate and House, then you’ll need the market to stay flat or pull back…If it goes higher, the Dems will get the credit (right or wrong) and the Dems keep majorities…[/quote]
Your missing what I think is the REAL story
the global economy
nov 20, 2008 the world changed
check ewz vs spx from nov 20, 2008
IT IS NOT JUST THE USA AND WESTERN EUROPE ANYMORE
DONT MISS THE REAL STORY
billions of additional people in free market economies.
a monster cheap labor pool to keep inflation under control
global govts in easy money mode
check the Baltic dry Index in last 60 days
f obama. he cant screw it up
listen to Ben and geitner. They have said a million times that the BIG mistake back in the day in the depression was taking the stim off TOO SOON.
My bull case is the lack of inflation. if your ben (or jean claude etc) and there are NO signs of inflation, why not just keep the tit on?
We have some people who bailed in march. We have one long term stock guy with 2 milish in money market from freaking in march "get me out-period)"
he get like 23 bucks a month in interest.
Its making him nuts.
how long can these people take it? earning zero?
way way too much cash earning zip
stocks going higher
[quote=Shania Twain]
Mel,
This is your best post…by far. i love it[/quote]
I don’t know who Mel is , but I’m sure he would appreciate your kind words
Your "bull" case is the exact reason why I am bearish. Inflation is not the risk here, it is still deflation. The fed went "all in" to try and stimulate between providing liquidity and low interest rates and they still failed to light a fire under the economy. Guess why, because credit is still contracting and banks are taking that "Free" money, leveraging it 10-1 and buying "riskless" short term treasuries. There is simply no money velocity to create inflation because of our debt situation. I actually agree with you regarding the opportunities in emerging markets but I think you are underestimating some of the risks out there. For the sake of our industry I hope I am wrong. I[quote=SFEZ]
My bull case is the lack of inflation. if your ben (or jean claude etc) and there are NO signs of inflation, why not just keep the tit on?