500 or bust?
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what are you talking about. I had another cocktail session with stumpf and Danny yesterday and everyone will get a nice retention. That marriott is sure nice.
Sell High - I agree with your statement
Frickster - “Yeah Dickhead, I live next door to DL”
Was buying banks late 08..he was killing it until August then he materials and oils blew up and he could not get out quick enough. He is probably the only manager that i think is really sharp..but couple bad sector plays and even he gets clobbared.what is ken heebner buying have not seen him in a while
[quote=fritz][quote=HymanRoth]
From Wikipedia...just for starters
"While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticised by media and pundits. For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[15] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[16]
Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in late May 2008 reached $135 bbl and gold was at $925/ounce."
[/quote] Ok Hyman I'm ALL IN..Let me just check with Joe Granville first[/quote]Whatever dude...here's all I know...when folks are selling due to fear and pain and confusion, I wanna be on the other side of that trade...just like when they were buying because of greed and blindness to risk.
[quote=HymanRoth] [quote=fritz][quote=HymanRoth]
From Wikipedia...just for starters
"While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticised by media and pundits. For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[15] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[16]
Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in late May 2008 reached $135 bbl and gold was at $925/ounce."
[/quote] Ok Hyman I'm ALL IN..Let me just check with Joe Granville first[/quote]Whatever dude...here's all I know...when folks are selling due to fear and pain and confusion, I wanna be on the other side of that trade...just like when they were buying because of greed and blindness to risk.
[/quote] I hear you, agree also 99.9% of the time. But do think this could be the .01% that the risk here outweighs the rewards. If we break the lows and dont rally back within a couple days think we are heading to 6000 or so, 650 S&P area. Dow can only drop so far, bunch of them already under 10. When do you or anyone else on here think the DOW makes new highs? I would say 10 years, as for the Nasdaq 100 I'll say never hits 5000 again.
[quote=fritz]
I hear you, agree also 99.9% of the time. But do think this could be the .01% that the risk here outweighs the rewards. If we break the lows and dont rally back within a couple days think we are heading to 6000 or so, 650 S&P area. Dow can only drop so far, bunch of them already under 10. When do you or anyone else on here think the DOW makes new highs? I would say 10 years, as for the Nasdaq 100 I'll say never hits 5000 again.[/quote]At this particular point, it really doesn't matter to me that the Dow or Nazz make new highs...after all the Dow made a new high in '07 and it didn't do a great deal of good for us did it?
Remember, many of these so-called "experts" who are telling you that we are in for a protracted economic slowdown are the same fools who told you last summer that oil was going to 200/bbl.
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Fritz - I am guilty of reading all of the news and it has been consistently poopish at least since 11/21/08 - Dow 7449. Now we swirl in the low 8000. What has changed? News is worse. Economy is more morose. Home sales continue to plummet. Banks continue to hoard credit. Citi and Bank owned by America are partially nationalized, our new Treasury Secretary just criticized the USA's biggest lender when we are about to go on a borrowing spree, nothing in the Tarp and financial rescue a year ago has helped (accept that maybe CP was freed up) and on and on. You know what I think has happened? The market - smarter than all of us - looked ahead and did not like what it saw and could not explain it satisfactorily as to how it might be righted. So it took a 40-50% discount off the price (14 to 7400). That is a discount that gets everyone's attention. And AS ALWAYS the market overdoes. NASDAQ was 2500 in Oct. 1999. Joe Kernan (that doofus on CNBC) said the Dow wasn't worth quoting anymore since it did not represent the new economy. NASDAQ hit 5000 in March 2000. The market overdoes things then and has overdone things today. It has pulled its chips off the table. Every theory is right at 6:00. But, we operate like the US Army, on a 24 hour day. So take the Elliott peoples and their Hale Bop Comet with a grain of salt or buy OEX puts with a factor of the Beta on the portfolio. If you hide in the bomb shelter with your peeps, when the parade comes to town, they will leave you in droves. Or you could just buy them “High Yield” CDs and give them a free calendar.
whatever dude…
here’s all I know…
when folks are selling due to fear and pain and confusion,
I wanna be on the other side of that trade…
just like when they were buying
because of greed and blindness to risk.
Here’s all I know.
Nothing will ever be said on this board…any more correct…then the above… dude
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Fritz - I am guilty of reading all of the news and it has been consistently poopish at least since 11/21/08 - Dow 7449. Now we swirl in the low 8000. What has changed? News is worse. Economy is more morose. Home sales continue to plummet. Banks continue to hoard credit. Citi and Bank owned by America are partially nationalized, our new Treasury Secretary just criticized the USA's biggest lender when we are about to go on a borrowing spree, nothing in the Tarp and financial rescue a year ago has helped (accept that maybe CP was freed up) and on and on. You know what I think has happened? The market - smarter than all of us - looked ahead and did not like what it saw and could not explain it satisfactorily as to how it might be righted. So it took a 40-50% discount off the price (14 to 7400). That is a discount that gets everyone's attention. And AS ALWAYS the market overdoes. NASDAQ was 2500 in Oct. 1999. Joe Kernan (that doofus on CNBC) said the Dow wasn't worth quoting anymore since it did not represent the new economy. NASDAQ hit 5000 in March 2000. The market overdoes things then and has overdone things today. It has pulled its chips off the table. Every theory is right at 6:00. But, we operate like the US Army, on a 24 hour day. So take the Elliott peoples and their Hale Bop Comet with a grain of salt or buy OEX puts with a factor of the Beta on the portfolio. If you hide in the bomb shelter with your peeps, when the parade comes to town, they will leave you in droves. Or you could just buy them “High Yield” CDs and give them a free calendar.
[/quote] your right on the averages. But Bear market rallies are normal, this market has actually been the worst on record for not having mini rallies on the way down. Not sure i would read too much into the averages not breaking down now? Many names like MSFT, GE etc are all well below their November lows and in fact making 12 year lows. I agree quoting or listening to the "experts" is a waste of time. My guess on a decline would be 2nd half 09..my main thought is everyone seems to be hoping for recovery in that time frame..think the short interest is too high for us to make a big decline right now. We've digested a lot of bad news and seems like for now selling dries up a little under 8000..I think if/when we get a breakdown it will be in a big way, dont see it doing it in the next few months. I predict September/October if no improvement is on the horizon or getting worse that will be the time frame for the move lower.[quote=CDO Squared] whatever dude…
here’s all I know…
when folks are selling due to fear and pain and confusion,
I wanna be on the other side of that trade…
just like when they were buying
because of greed and blindness to risk.
Here’s all I know.
Nothing will ever be said on this board…any more correct…then the above… dude[/quote]
Thanks.
I’m putting my money where my mouth is…following in the footsteps of many who I think are far smarter than I…and more rational. Time will tell…and I think it will tell before we see another January.
[quote=fritz]
But Bear market rallies are normal, this market has actually been the worst on record for not having mini rallies on the way down.[/quote]
Got links?
Or is that just propaganda?
Also, Danny I asked straight forward “Where will retention be” and he laughed and said the managers talk about the retention as much as we do.
That’s really reassuring, isn’t it? Four months into this process and Danny Boy responds to this most obvious and fundamental questions by laughing?!
I feel bad for my old AGE colleagues. They deserve much better, but I fear they’ll end up with much worse. And someday maybe they’ll actually know for sure one way or t’other.
87 worse than now? What planet are you on??? Market crashed in October and had an UP YEAR in 1987. This is EVERY bit as bad as the economy of 73-74 and the second worse calandar year in the HISTORY of the the market. This decade has been absolutely brutal and is worse than any time YOU have been in the market. Anyone in the business 25 years has spent the majority of his career in a structural bull market (82- 4/00) Through the first 8 years of this decade the market return is NEGATIVE. Through the end of 2008 the current rolling 10 year rate of return is the second worst in the last 200 years....
So spare me the bull crap about how much worse it was in 1987 or 1974 or 1981-82 http://www.mgo-inc.com/Rolling%2010%20yr%20averages%201802-2008.pdf[quote=BukiRob]
87 worse than now? What planet are you on??? Market crashed in October and had an UP YEAR in 1987. This is EVERY bit as bad as the economy of 73-74 and the second worse calandar year in the HISTORY of the the market. This decade has been absolutely brutal and is worse than any time YOU have been in the market. Anyone in the business 25 years has spent the majority of his career in a structural bull market (82- 4/00) Through the first 8 years of this decade the market return is NEGATIVE. Through the end of 2008 the current rolling 10 year rate of return is the second worst in the last 200 years…
So spare me the bull crap about how much worse it was in 1987 or 1974 or 1981-82 http://www.mgo-inc.com/Rolling%2010%20yr%20averages%201802-2008.pdf[/quote]I think you and Fritz need to make sure to read this part from your link before you put all your clients in inverse funds or apply for a greeter's job at Wal-Mart:
Rolling 10-year returns for the period ending 2008 are the second lowest in over 200 years! With the market decline in 2008, 10-year returns are below that of 1974 and 1857 and are within a few percent of the all time low reached in 1938. Indeed, another “black swan” event. What I do find intriguing is how strongly long-term stock market returns rose going forward after similar market swoon events.
Source: CLS Investments
[quote=WSxAG][quote=jimmymac24]
Mark it down. While not at the bottom, we are in a bottoming process. Been at this for 25 years. The Crash of '87 was far scarier and the Post 9/11 complete unknown was far more worrisome. Economy still not at '73-74 or '81-82 levels. Believe what you care to believe and enjoy your no-yield precious metals and T-Bills. I personally would like to thank all those who sold great companies to me at bargain basement prices and have allowed me to build, on sell-offs, a marvelous high-dividend yielding equity portfolio that will fund my, above average, retirement 15-20 years from now. Its not a "Stock Market" its a Market of Stocks - go do your job and find those opportunities for your clients -its what they are paying us for. Now, about that retention . . . the crash of 87 was much scarier?? I would rather have that then bleed a slow death. thats what will make this much worse. The damage done today will take years to recover. The market recovered very quickly after 87 and 911. This has been and will be a much slower process because the damage is much more severe. I know everyone needs to use history to convince themselves things are gonna get better but reality is this is all new and very bad and the only period that compares to this is 1929. Stop kidding yourselves with all this buying opportunity bs. our economy is in dire straights and it will take at least as long as it took to create this mess to fix it. [/quote] Really? 1929? Does anyone forecast 24% unemployment? A 65% contraction in GDP? and apparently you missed that wonderful timeframe of 12/99 - 3/03 when the indices fell three straight years for the first time since the Crash of '29, the NASDAQ shedding 70% from peak to trough. This market has been down for just over a year, down severely, yes but we survived that and we'll survive this.[/quote] Thank you HymanRoth.