500 or bust?
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[quote=maddog]
Here is my guess - for Legacy AGE -
Apply the original retention percentage numbers on 2008 calendar year end T12. Subtract remaining part of original retention. Accelerate the deferred comp amount that we are to get control of in about 4 years. Legacy WS gets deal AGE got originally. [/quote] All the way back on page 54...... However, I have changed my assumption from recently heard. Agree with KO - the delay in the naming is pending suit against WB that WFC doesnt' want to take any ownership of. But, heard of a scale that would put $1mi plus around 60-70% upfront and work down to about $300,000 would expect announcement next week.Agree with KO - the delay in the naming is pending suit against WB that WFC doesnt’ want to take any ownership of. What do you mean? I understand that we have paid pru their money for the minority stake.
WS is settleing the wage and hour stuff now. WFC wants all the documents and press to name WS as the company involved in the litigation. Not Wells Fargo Advisors. Makes pretty good sense.
[quote=HymanRoth] [quote=fritz]
Prechter is calling for market at 400 and Oil to 10.00 based on his cycle work. Thats the DOW not the S&P. Seems a little low, but based on all his valuation we are overvalued right now by at least double on many measures. Market could rally here and would be almost nothing, but think the way things are shaping up anyone who thinks the next 3000 points is up vs down is going to be in a world of hurt. I think when you throw the psychological damage in with the reality of the economy and the fact that baby boom generation begins retiring in 3-5 years we are only just getting started on the downside. Hope I am wrong believe me, but this buying opp of a lifetime stuff is a joke. We are about at the same level as the S&P 500 was in 2002, does anyone think the economy and financial industry is in the same shape as then?? Dont think there was one house underwater in 2002 in the U.S?
[/quote]Sales and profits for WMT are approximately 3 times higher than they were a year ago, and yet the stock is trading at roughly the same levels.
Get your facts straight.
In 2002 there may not have been many houses that were underwater, but then again real estate was only just emerging from a difficult period that ended a few years prior, and people were just starting to say "I'm going to invest in real estate because you can never lose money in real estate..." I tried to tell them but of course they had it all figured out.
If you really believe what you are saying, I hope you have your clients in double inverse funds, or maybe 10 years treasuries that are paying the handsome rate that starts with a 2.
When I start taking partial profits at Dow 10,000+, I'll be happy to sell to you and your clients as you scramble to join the party so you don't "miss out".
It's all this silly doomsday "this time it's different" pablum that has me even more convinced we're putting in a bottom right in front of your eyes. Study history, and think for yourself. Stocks that have economic sensitivity OFTEN look EXPENSIVE at a bottom because earnings are at trough levels. Just like homebuilders looked pretty cheap on a P/E basis a couple of years ago, because trailing "E" was at unsustainable bubble levels.
[/quote] My Gosh, Hyman not saying WMT or any one name. Dont have the report here, the valuation comprised of 3 different measures. Also showed dividend yield at every major bottom was 7% on the DOW, we are around 3.5% now. If you are already thinking of taking money off the table at 10K you are too optimistic either. As for doing inverse ETF maybe a little for myself, but as to how I survive the biz if we drop in 1/2 from here i have no idea, probably be in trouble. For how much everyone says WMT is a winner in the cycle its near 52 week low and has gone nowhere for 10 years. If somehow the banking/ housing can get fixed maybe we can be near a bottom, if it cant then just don't see how you can make a case to be bullish just because people are bearish. And people really arent bearish, 90% of the street analysts are expecting the indices to be a up in the 12% area and all put call ratio is now at levels seen when we about to head lower not higher. Look at a 20 year chart on MSFT, GE, INTC etc and tell me where they are going?
That is exactly why they are waiting on name. Spoke with regional today and that is exactly what he said before I read the speculation posting on name. Also, Danny I asked straight forward “Where will retention be” and he laughed and said the managers talk about the retention as much as we do. He said the amount he thinks is 1 mill+ 50-60% down to 400k+.
From Wikipedia...just for starters
"While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticised by media and pundits. For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[15] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[16]
Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in late May 2008 reached $135 bbl and gold was at $925/ounce."
here is a question. Wachovia has recruited alot of big producers over the last 3 to 5 years. these guys are under contracts that have atleast 4 years left and even more if they hit back end bonuses. Is it safe to assume that any amount still owed on previous note will be subtracted from this retention. Ie, lets say retention is 50 percent for a guy doing 600k. so his bonus is 300k. but he still owns 400k including back end on his forgivable note. this guy gets zero right?? anyone hear if this is how it will work.
[quote=HymanRoth]
From Wikipedia...just for starters
"While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticised by media and pundits. For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[15] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[16]
Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in late May 2008 reached $135 bbl and gold was at $925/ounce."
[/quote] Ok Hyman I'm ALL IN..Let me just check with Joe Granville first“these guys are under contracts that have atleast 4 years left and even more if they hit back end bonuses.”
Why would hitting backend extend your contract?because you sign another note when you get paid and you pay that off over another 8 years and since you have been with firm for 2 years now your extended to 10 years on that portion of your total note. Its another way they get you to stay around a little longer. They want you to hit your back end.
Dont think thats right. Think i asked that question specfically and date was your start date. Least verbally that is what i thought I was told.because you sign another note when you get paid and you pay that off over another 8 years and since you have been with firm for 2 years now your extended to 10 years on that portion of your total note. Its another way they get you to stay around a little longer. They want you to hit your back end.
I remember looking at my contract when i hit my back end and am pretty sure it extended it. I will double check.
Whalehunter you are wrong. must be a recruiter. my manager said guys under deals will be included but the hard part to figure is how it will be calculated. manager said alot of guys were recruited here recently and will be included. who knows. just wondering if anyone heard how these people will be handled. It would seem the whole firm is under some type of deal right now.I am hearing about one week or so for announcement.
Assuming I'm correct, I really hope they take the opportunity to play it up and start to revive feeling like a team again. It's definitely doable. Have the Wells Fargo guy with DL - we're going to make this work - we're the biggest - we're the best -- etc. etc. Some may say that type of stuff doesn't matter but way back at ML - that's all they did and you know what... I did a ton of business because of it. It felt like an exclusive club. It pumped me up. We need some of that over here.For the people who have been waiting for that stage coach carrying the retention check. I am told 2-3 more weeks.
Of course its another 2 to 3 weeks. What else should we expect from those F’ing morons.