500 or bust?
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there is supposed to be a BOD meeting today that addresses both name and retention. Might hear something next week…? Believe when I sees it.
[quote=WSxAG][quote=WSxAG][quote=jimmymac24]
Mark it down. While not at the bottom, we are in a bottoming process. Been at this for 25 years. The Crash of '87 was far scarier and the Post 9/11 complete unknown was far more worrisome. Economy still not at '73-74 or '81-82 levels. Believe what you care to believe and enjoy your no-yield precious metals and T-Bills. I personally would like to thank all those who sold great companies to me at bargain basement prices and have allowed me to build, on sell-offs, a marvelous high-dividend yielding equity portfolio that will fund my, above average, retirement 15-20 years from now. Its not a "Stock Market" its a Market of Stocks - go do your job and find those opportunities for your clients -its what they are paying us for. Now, about that retention . . . the crash of 87 was much scarier?? I would rather have that then bleed a slow death. thats what will make this much worse. The damage done today will take years to recover. The market recovered very quickly after 87 and 911. This has been and will be a much slower process because the damage is much more severe. I know everyone needs to use history to convince themselves things are gonna get better but reality is this is all new and very bad and the only period that compares to this is 1929. Stop kidding yourselves with all this buying opportunity bs. our economy is in dire straights and it will take at least as long as it took to create this mess to fix it. [/quote] Really? 1929? Does anyone forecast 24% unemployment? A 65% contraction in GDP? and apparently you missed that wonderful timeframe of 12/99 - 3/03 when the indices fell three straight years for the first time since the Crash of '29, the NASDAQ shedding 70% from peak to trough. This market has been down for just over a year, down severely, yes but we survived that and we'll survive this.[/quote] Thank you HymanRoth. [/quote]You're welcome. For what?
[quote=WSxAG]Charlie Brown - Lucy - Football . . . think about it.[/quote]
You might be running up against a generational communication gap there…
[quote=Ferris Bueller] [quote=HymanRoth]
[quote=WSxAG]Charlie Brown - Lucy - Football . . . think about it.[/quote]You might be running up against a generational communication gap there…[/quote]
Or maybe they are actually going to communicate something. My god, imagine that.[/quote]
Believe it or not I’m keeping my fingers crossed for you guys and gals…even watching from the outside it’s hard for me to imagine why WFC has conducted themselves in this manner…other than perhaps due to some behind the scenes government pressure.
In one respect this is keeping with how WFC operates. WS was in talks about a week before the C deal was announced with Wells. Wells said they needed more time and it was not until a day AFTER the C deal was announced that WFC came in with its offer.
Secondly, there was some very recent bad press regarding Wachovia that Wells wanted to distance themselves from. That news has come out and instead of the headlines being Wells, they are Wachovia related keeping an arms length from the bad press. Wells had exceptionally strong numbers and they are in very good shape IMO the retention announcement is going to happen in the next few days. Hayes said before the end of January. He said he was pleased with what he saw in retention and he said he believed we would be pleased as well. That is how the call ended last Wednesday. You do not draw a line in the sand like that unless you KNOW you have retention to work with. Not if you want to keep your job.[quote=fritz]
your right on the averages. But Bear market rallies are normal, this market has actually been the worst on record for not having mini rallies on the way down. Not sure i would read too much into the averages not breaking down now? Many names like MSFT, GE etc are all well below their November lows and in fact making 12 year lows. I agree quoting or listening to the "experts" is a waste of time. My guess on a decline would be 2nd half 09..my main thought is everyone seems to be hoping for recovery in that time frame..think the short interest is too high for us to make a big decline right now. We've digested a lot of bad news and seems like for now selling dries up a little under 8000..I think if/when we get a breakdown it will be in a big way, dont see it doing it in the next few months. I predict September/October if no improvement is on the horizon or getting worse that will be the time frame for the move lower. [/quote] I agree 100%. I was crossing my fingers last week we didnt close under 8000. When we do we go down another leg. I've been reducing leverage in my accounts in anticipation. In the mean time I'm scalping more than anything. I'm going to sell off most of the mutual fund positions I have on the books if we get to 9000 before we head down again.Will be interesting to see what happens with this bounce. Have you been reading Rod Smyth and Riverfronts thoughts??
[quote=Gaddock][quote=fritz]
your right on the averages. But Bear market rallies are normal, this market has actually been the worst on record for not having mini rallies on the way down. Not sure i would read too much into the averages not breaking down now? Many names like MSFT, GE etc are all well below their November lows and in fact making 12 year lows. I agree quoting or listening to the "experts" is a waste of time. My guess on a decline would be 2nd half 09..my main thought is everyone seems to be hoping for recovery in that time frame..think the short interest is too high for us to make a big decline right now. We've digested a lot of bad news and seems like for now selling dries up a little under 8000..I think if/when we get a breakdown it will be in a big way, dont see it doing it in the next few months. I predict September/October if no improvement is on the horizon or getting worse that will be the time frame for the move lower. [/quote] I agree 100%. I was crossing my fingers last week we didnt close under 8000. When we do we go down another leg. I've been reducing leverage in my accounts in anticipation. In the mean time I'm scalping more than anything. I'm going to sell off most of the mutual fund positions I have on the books if we get to 9000 before we head down again.[/quote] Don't confuse early success with absolute knowledge of short-term market movements. Eventually you will be the one scalped.People, PLEASE!!
No hijacking the thread! Please keep all comments limited to idle speculation, rumors, rants and threats about the perpetually soon-to-be-announced, right around the corner retention that Wells may, or may not, eventually, possibly (or not) offer to Wachovia brokers (possibly excluding AGE Legacy brokers).
And may the second hundred pages offer as much insight as the first hundred!!!
Thank you Morphius. If I wanted a technical analyst forum I would start one. Last I checked this was regarding a RETENTION. All of you attempting to show off you “market knowledge” go back to studying your charts and graphs and leave this forum to retention.
Latest rumor from someone in the trust department, Danny is on thin ice.
“Latest rumor from someone in the trust department, Danny is on thin ice.” Is this true or are you just trying to get the conversation back on track? Would think in 12 months the ice will be thin for many, but if he is in on it now would have think there is some friction over the retention or lack thereof.
“Latest rumor from someone in the trust department, Danny is on thin ice.” Is this true or are you just trying to get the conversation back on track?
I also hear this same information from the Not Clear department!!!
Retention is on the way. Just as stated before, they wanted to get the PR out there on good earnings, strong bank, didnt need TARP, lawsuits behind them etc. then they dont have to justify why they paid out retention.
I have to agree. These are bright people…too bright to ignore the expectation and obligation of retention, especially in an environment such as this which was much brought on by themselves (WB crew, not WF).
As much as I’d like to say “the old doesn’t matter” you can’t ignore the last round…what, just 12 months ago?..of retention, so I would not expect a full deal of 100% for $1mm+ as you would otherwise. As the legacy AGE guys say “so what about the last retention, this is new”…that is just foolish and, bottom line, greedy, thinking.
I would expect guys $1mm+ to be the “top bracket” with 50-60%, then tiered down from there. Now at $1.4mm myself, I would be remiss not to look at the 200%+ coming from UBS, MS, etc. ($700k v $2.8million?!), but then again…why try to move now when they are in total chaos organizationally, as well? Let them all sort their issues out, then–when deals come back up again, as they will–move on if we feel mistreated by Wells in this environment.
I would LOVE to think we’d get the same 100% as Bear Stearns or Lehman (especially legacy WS) but that is just not realistic.
Since when is a 300-500k broker butt dust? That is a bread and butter broker that is on his/her way to bigger and better things. The total disregard for this bracket is unbelievable.
Not all brokers live in Manhattan. From the way that WFC has handled this retention, every broker all the way down to the one who is in the training class, should receive a retention. Why would a trainee even want to work for WFC in light of this? They may be trainee's but may not be stupid. You have to start somewhere. I'm just trying to defend and ruffle some feathers on the mid-sized producer being squeezed like they don't matter. Are they really a dime a dozen, easy to replace??? It still takes more money to put a new butt in the seat than to retain one.Wheat-ie you hit it on the nose, although I do care to be a bit greedy as would love 100%. I am at 1.2 T12 and am expecting 50%, anything more would be great but your post was 100% correct
Just out of curiosity, do the $1mm+ brokers in your office spend much time on internet chat forums?