As an observer of ten presidential election cycles while working in the investment business, we thought it would be a good thing to give the current stock market environment some historical context. Revenue growth stories in tech are making what some would call "maniacal new highs." Perceived losers in the 2016 cycle, like healthcare, have been purged by the stock market. Betting sites and many of the polls have had Hillary Clinton running ahead (before the reopening of the FBI investigation) and favor among the S&P 500 sectors is seemingly representative of her perceived industry likes and dislikes. Could this discounting prior to the election be symptomatic of a contrary indicator?
Since the stock market is a discounting mechanism, a look at the stock market in the 1980 election season could be a helpful comparison for contrarian investors. Ronald Reagan, a former movie actor and Governor of California, ran as… Read More …
