It's that time of year when analysts dust off their crystal balls and make predictions for the next 12 months. In December 2015 not many were forecasting that Britain would vote to leave the EU, and even fewer were betting on a Donald Trump presidential victory, so investors would be wise to treat such missives with caution. Political risk is a capricious beast, even for the most seasoned market observers.
But, caveats aside, there seems to be a consensus forming that 2017 will be a tough year for one particular asset class: emerging market debt. A Trump presidency will usher in a new era of lower taxes - especially for high earners - and expansionary fiscal policy. Trump has also promised to introduce a more protectionist trade regime. Given that the US economy is growing above its probable trend rate, these policies are likely to result in higher inflation and…