Originally posted on TheStreet on September 20, 2016
Despite many dire warnings this year, what has the market done so far? Not much.
With a few bumps, equity markets have traded sideways with low volatility. There was a shock in high yield earlier in the year, but even those yields have largely declined again.
What might be happening in this sort of quiescent market? A series of interconnected factors have combined to create this listlessness. Consider that:
- A number of expected global shocks did not happen, although they may still occur. The Chinese credit, equity and real estate market did not melt down; oil prices vaguely stabilized at a new (albeit much lower) band level and Russia seemed to avoid oil-induced debt default / financial collapse so far; war in the Middle East seems to have been kept at least to limited zones; and the U.S. real estate market, although
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