A great many asset classes have been moving almost perfectly sideways for months now. That is unusual by any standard, but more so given the circumstances of late 2016. This might be indicative of doubts, some of which are being reinforced by weakness that might be characterized as "unexpected" but really no longer is.
Today's data on Chinese exports is a good example. To hear economists tell it, the weak start to this year as leftover from last year was a close call, but one that is now just history. This is the view that predominates of wishful thinking on the FOMC. And, at times, it did seem as if this was a realistic scenario; Chinese trade including imports did appear to be improving if only as less negative. But as optimism builds for that scenario it is regularly interrupted by its opposite; September exports fell very sharply, casting…
