Faced with first quarter results well below expectations, continued weak economic conditions and withering investor confidence, the Securities Industry Association lowered second-quarter and full-year profit estimates and forecast more layoffs.

SIA says first-quarter profits from New York Stock Exchange member firms totaled $3 billion, 7.7 percent below the $3.25 billion SIA forecast and 27.5 percent less than the $4.14 billion reported a year earlier. The results were reported in the June issue of SIA’s

Securities Industry Trends.

The SIA now pegs second-quarter profit at about $3.1 billion, 3 percent less than previous forecasts. That’s still more than the $2.8 billion reported a year earlier. Full-year expectations are $13 billion, 1.5 percent less previous expectations but about 21 percent more than was reported in 2001.

First-quarter gross revenue declined 9 percent to $38.5 billion from $42.3 billion the previous quarter, marking the fifth consecutive losing quarter. Revenue is lower than at any point since 1997, and down 40 percent from a peak of $63 billion in the first quarter of 2000.

George Monahan, SIA vice president and director of industry studies, says the disappointing results will "undoubtedly" lead to more layoffs. Many firms tried to delay firings, hoping for an industry rebound that never materialized. Even those firms that already reduced staffs, he says, may have to "cut deeper still."