Economy vs. Stocks disconnected?

52 replies [Last post]
BigKahuna's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-19

I have been doing this for a couple of years now and certain things don't add up. I realize the market is a discounting mechanizism, but why then did the market not crash until the credit was already frozen? Why is it rising when we are creating worse figures than before? ( housing ) We need to create 500k jobs  per month over the next 5 years just to get unemployment back to where it was and we are still losing 500k jobs? I guess I'm missing something, what do you all think?

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

BRIC

US consumer is important but no where near as important as before

world changed nov 20, 2008

look at ewz   (brazil)   vs spx from that date to now.

brazil with a middle class
china with a middle class
india with a middle class
etc

stocks are cheap

the REAL story is the global economy. dont miss forest for tress

God bless ya ronnie. Mr Gorbachv, tear down that MF wall.
God bless personal individual freedom

What Me Worry's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-19

Shania Twain wrote: BRIC

US consumer is important but no where near as important as before

world changed nov 20, 2008

look at ewz   (brazil)   vs spx from that date to now.

brazil with a middle class
china with a middle class
india with a middle class
etc

stocks are cheap

the REAL story is the global economy. dont miss forest for tress

God bless ya ronnie. Mr Gorbachv, tear down that MF wall.
God bless personal individual freedom

Wake up the alarm clock is ringing

shantom1's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-10-28

I do not want to get into a long conversation on opinions, but I will comment. 
 
Things will continue in a trading range maybe with a small selloff 1st quarterish.  3rd and 4th quarters next year (GDP, wages, mkt etc) will be VERY good as those who can control their income will advance it as much as possible since 2011 will be the (already signed into legislation) start of massive tax increases. 
 
Tax increases has not, will not, CAN NOT, result in an increase in the production of goods and services. 
 
BY PURE DEFINITION THE INCREASE OF TAXES ON ANY CLASS OF PEOPLE WILL RESULT IN THE REDUCTION OF MONIES AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE GOODS AND SERVICES. 
 
If your argument will be one of the other 3 legs of the economy will take over I will offer this:
1. Foreign investments- Forget it, foreigners have and will continue to pull money out of the US due to the devaluation of the dollar (a true guarantee at this point)
2. Government- Forget it, that is why we are here in the first place
3. Corporations- Try to never rely on an entity to spend us out of a recession when their primary customer base has less money to spend. 
 
Short of a massive contraction in the monetary supply followed by large tax reductions sprinkled in with the elimination of ridiculous notions of universal healthcare and energy independence we are ROYALY SCREWED......

What Me Worry's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-19

Don't worry, the mkt has annualized 10 % since the beginning of time...buy, buy, buy

LockEDJ's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-07-06

BigKahuna wrote:I have been doing this for a couple of years now and certain things don't add up. I realize the market is a discounting mechanizism, but why then did the market not crash until the credit was already frozen? Why is it rising when we are creating worse figures than before? ( housing ) We need to create 500k jobs  per month over the next 5 years just to get unemployment back to where it was and we are still losing 500k jobs? I guess I'm missing something, what do you all think?
 
Are you making the mistake of misinterpreting the market as to mean "the United States"? Look at the S&P 500. How much of the overall profits generated by those companies comes from the United States? Pepsi: 38% of revenues are X-US. UTX: 38% of revenues are US. PG: 45% outside the US. Increasingly it makes no difference what happens to the American worker.
 
The regional AF guy told me they've found the optimum portfolio now is 48% international. It echoes what the Black Rock guy said last year.
 
Last one out, turn out the lights.

BigKahuna's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-19

LockEDJ wrote:BigKahuna wrote:I have been doing this for a couple of years now and certain things don't add up. I realize the market is a discounting mechanizism, but why then did the market not crash until the credit was already frozen? Why is it rising when we are creating worse figures than before? ( housing ) We need to create 500k jobs  per month over the next 5 years just to get unemployment back to where it was and we are still losing 500k jobs? I guess I'm missing something, what do you all think?
 
Are you making the mistake of misinterpreting the market as to mean "the United States"? Look at the S&P 500. How much of the overall profits generated by those companies comes from the United States? Pepsi: 38% of revenues are X-US. UTX: 38% of revenues are US. PG: 45% outside the US. Increasingly it makes no difference what happens to the American worker.
 
The regional AF guy told me they've found the optimum portfolio now is 48% international. It echoes what the Black Rock guy said last year.
 
Last one out, turn out the lights.
 
These markets are all behaving the same. International fell first and faster so now it is up more and faster. I don't get how people say the market predicts? It seems like it acts on it's own. Didn't predict the credit freeze, but now it is predicting recovery. I don't get it?

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

shantom1 wrote: I do not want to get into a long conversation on opinions, but I will comment. 
 
Things will continue in a trading range maybe with a small selloff 1st quarterish.  3rd and 4th quarters next year (GDP, wages, mkt etc) will be VERY good as those who can control their income will advance it as much as possible since 2011 will be the (already signed into legislation) start of massive tax increases. 
 
Tax increases has not, will not, CAN NOT, result in an increase in the production of goods and services. 
 
BY PURE DEFINITION THE INCREASE OF TAXES ON ANY CLASS OF PEOPLE WILL RESULT IN THE REDUCTION OF MONIES AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE GOODS AND SERVICES. 
 
If your argument will be one of the other 3 legs of the economy will take over I will offer this:
1. Foreign investments- Forget it, foreigners have and will continue to pull money out of the US due to the devaluation of the dollar (a true guarantee at this point)
2. Government- Forget it, that is why we are here in the first place
3. Corporations- Try to never rely on an entity to spend us out of a recession when their primary customer base has less money to spend. 
 
Short of a massive contraction in the monetary supply followed by large tax reductions sprinkled in with the elimination of ridiculous notions of universal healthcare and energy independence we are ROYALY SCREWED......

Your all BEARS

thats why they play the games

hold cash
short it
sell

Im long and bullish as a MF

keep shorting it
keep holding cash

NOBODY dis Ronnie.    even you Mel. you trashed Jesus (your gonna REALLY pay for that someday)

dont trash Ronnie
God bless ya Gip.   you would'nt believe the guy we have in washington

What Me Worry's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-19

Shania Twain wrote: shantom1 wrote: I do not want to get into a long conversation on opinions, but I will comment. 
 
Things will continue in a trading range maybe with a small selloff 1st quarterish.  3rd and 4th quarters next year (GDP, wages, mkt etc) will be VERY good as those who can control their income will advance it as much as possible since 2011 will be the (already signed into legislation) start of massive tax increases. 
 
Tax increases has not, will not, CAN NOT, result in an increase in the production of goods and services. 
 
BY PURE DEFINITION THE INCREASE OF TAXES ON ANY CLASS OF PEOPLE WILL RESULT IN THE REDUCTION OF MONIES AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE GOODS AND SERVICES. 
 
If your argument will be one of the other 3 legs of the economy will take over I will offer this:
1. Foreign investments- Forget it, foreigners have and will continue to pull money out of the US due to the devaluation of the dollar (a true guarantee at this point)
2. Government- Forget it, that is why we are here in the first place
3. Corporations- Try to never rely on an entity to spend us out of a recession when their primary customer base has less money to spend. 
 
Short of a massive contraction in the monetary supply followed by large tax reductions sprinkled in with the elimination of ridiculous notions of universal healthcare and energy independence we are ROYALY SCREWED......

Your all BEARS

thats why they play the games

hold cash
short it
sell

Im long and bullish as a MF

keep shorting it
keep holding cash

NOBODY dis Ronnie.    even you Mel. you trashed Jesus (your gonna REALLY pay for that someday)

dont trash Ronnie
God bless ya Gip.   you would'nt believe the guy we have in washington

wasn't that guy an actor...i've seen him somewhere before

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Look at that picture.
You think Ronnie ever "held cash"?

Get long you girly men

You think Ronnie's portfolio looked like this?

10% US dollar
15% 20 year treasuries
15% corporates
15% aggregate bond index
5% short GOLD
10% TIPS
15% BIL
CASH

Gezz man.
Check for a 7-11 and get some depends

BigKahuna's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-19

I'm not a bear. I do asset allocation. You know the rules for that don't you? I'm just trying to find an answer. If there isn't one, so be it. I collect assets and look for good funds, so don't call me a bear.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

BigKahuna wrote: I'm not a bear. I do asset allocation. You know the rules for that don't you? I'm just trying to find an answer. If there isn't one, so be it. I collect assets and look for good funds, so don't call me a bear.

The gipper got to ya!

Put his picture on the wall.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

bears:
check out baltic dry index in last 2 months

thats the REAL story. global economy ready to explode.
u will see oil over 147 SOON

Bodysurf's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-08-02

How do you reconcile your admiration for Reagan--which I share--with your optimism that things are similar today?  Reagan was a deregulator, a tax-cutter, and wanted to shrink the size of government.  He laid the groundwork for one of the longest bull markets in history.  Just what similarities do you see with the present Commander in Chief?

shantom1's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-10-28

Shania-I am not a bear. I was 100% long equities until late summer when we approached 10, I started pulling off the table (about 50-50 now). Turned out to be a good move b/c my fixed income investments have averaged a nice double digit return. I am looking for a re-entry point to make a short term play until end of next year.

Not believing the stock market will always go up all the time is not being a bear, it's being realistic and strategic.

You remind me of your typical bull market broker, "lost half your money, don't worry buy more b/c some day it will go up". I assume you feel very strongly that there is never a good reason to underweight equities b/c of the economy?

shantom1's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-10-28

Bodysurf wrote: How do you reconcile your admiration for Reagan--which I share--with your optimism that things are similar today?  Reagan was a deregulator, a tax-cutter, and wanted to shrink the size of government.  He laid the groundwork for one of the longest bull markets in history.  Just what similarities do you see with the present Commander in Chief?

SPOT ON!!!

Primo's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-18

shantom1 wrote: Bodysurf wrote: How do you reconcile your admiration for Reagan--which I share--with your optimism that things are similar today?  Reagan was a deregulator, a tax-cutter, and wanted to shrink the size of government.  He laid the groundwork for one of the longest bull markets in history.  Just what similarities do you see with the present Commander in Chief? SPOT ON!!!

 
 
Carter paved the way for Reagan, Obama will pave the way again in much the same way.

shantom1's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-10-28

PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?

Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?

HOLY SH*T are you off your F'in rocker?

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

shantom1 wrote: PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?

Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?

HOLY SH*T are you off your F'in rocker?

i hear ya........but the global economy bigger then ANYTHING this guy can do.

your missing forest for trees.

Look at Bubba. he raised taxes etc etc

tech run was bigger then ANYTHING he did.

stay away from us consumer names.

infra
ag
commods
emg markets

"global competition for the world's resources"

obama is toast

he is under 49& now
independents gone
he went way way too far left
he is done

They will ram though healthcare and midterms will be rep blowout

shantom1's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-10-28

I am not missing the picture. The only country getting it right is China. Scary.

Anyone who is a fan of stimulus packages should study economics 101, zero sum gain- quite negative actually.

China has gotten it right- Stimulus spent on infrastructure paid from surplus. Let that soak in a little. It took me a minute to grasp it. You can't borrow to stimulate. period.

Next on the list, and only other on the list is Germany. They just cut taxes. They are getting it.

I think everyone needs to back off from our brainwashed view that we are the supreme beings and our country cannot fail irregardless of our actions.   The rest of the world is waiting patiently for us to continue our slide. They want to remove the dollar as the world reserve. They want to demote our strength on the world stage. Normally we have the bench to take this challenge head on and beat it before it starts; the problem here is the coach has never coached a game before and his "centers of influence" are all professors. A professor is a tremendously smart person who can lay out on a chalkboard the exact cause and effect for any scenario you can come up with. But he can't tie his shoes.

Their problem comes in the practical application of theories; science cannot predict human emotion. Ask a mathematician to quantify the impact of greed, fear or manipulation and he will toss up his hands.

That is where our problem lies. Our government is run by people who are using the mathematician's guide to economy 101.

As I said I could go on for a day on any topic here. I am abbreviating and maybe rambling, but it is b/c I cannot puts to words how inescapably screwed we are and how a complete and absolute reversal of policy is the only chance of revival or even perhaps survival....

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote: shantom1 wrote: PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?

Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?

HOLY SH*T are you off your F'in rocker?

i hear ya........but the global economy bigger then ANYTHING this guy can do.

your missing forest for trees.

Look at Bubba. he raised taxes etc etc

tech run was bigger then ANYTHING he did.

stay away from us consumer names.

infra
ag
commods
emg markets

"global competition for the world's resources"

obama is toast

he is under 49& now
independents gone
he went way way too far left
he is done

They will ram though healthcare and midterms will be rep blowout

Too early to predict Obama's demise.  His approval numbers follow a similar to trajectory to Reagan's numbers in his first 300 days:   http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htmAs far as the state of the global economy.  Assets (stocks, real estate, etc) are still overvalued.  Consumers and the banking system haven't completed the necessary de-leveraging to get assets back to reasonable valuations.  The spending habits of the emerging middle class BRIC nations won't be enough to spur trade to '07 levels.  Weak dollar is driving this rally.  Not underlying business conditions.  It's a sucker's rally.   Read Bill Gross.http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Midnight+Candles+Gross+November.htm

amfUBS's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-04

Bill Gross has lifted narcissism to a new level. Any chance to mug for a tv camera. Hey Bill, get a haircut, you flamer. Combovers went out with disco. 

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

amfUBS wrote:Bill Gross has lifted narcissism to a new level. Any chance to mug for a tv camera. Hey Bill, get a haircut, you flamer. Combovers went out with disco.  Call him a narcissist with a bad haircut.  It doesn't mean he's not right.

What Me Worry's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-19

mlgone wrote: Global Growth story already taking hold, big time. You don't have to be a US investor to make money in this market.   Go where the opportunity is. Some emerging markets BECOMING real markets to play in. Middle class is emerging in China and India. Global Growth is the story. Don't be short all the way, just hedge and fasten your seatbelt

WRONG WRONG WRONG ALL WORLD MKTS ARE PART OF A HUGE BUBBLE THAT WILL ALL POP AT ONCE. QUIT PAYING ATTENTION TO YOU FIRM AND THE BONEHEADS ON CNBC.THEY ARE ALL SIMPLY TRYING TO SELL PRODUCTS

deekay's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-05-15

What Me Worry wrote: mlgone wrote: Global Growth story already taking hold, big time. You don't have to be a US investor to make money in this market.   Go where the opportunity is. Some emerging markets BECOMING real markets to play in. Middle class is emerging in China and India. Global Growth is the story. Don't be short all the way, just hedge and fasten your seatbelt WRONG WRONG WRONG ALL WORLD MKTS ARE PART OF A HUGE BUBBLE THAT WILL ALL POP AT ONCE. QUIT PAYING ATTENTION TO YOU FIRM AND THE BONEHEADS ON CNBC.THEY ARE ALL SIMPLY TRYING TO SELL PRODUCTS
 
What if one works for a firm that doesn't manufacture products and doesn't watch CNBC?

Iocaine's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-06-25

It is hard to get excited about the situation we are in.  If the rally is on and the recession is over why are interest rates still sitting at crisis levels?  What do you think would happen to this rally if the fed were to raise interest rates?  Can you imagine what a few extra % rise in interest rates would do to affordability in an already inflated housing market?  The fundamental problem of housing and bad assets has not been addressed in this crisis and all we are doing with interest rates at zero is trying to kick the can down the road for a little while longer.  Banks are sitting on forclosed properties for fear of flooding and further depressing the housing market or trying to work out forclose/lease deals with struggling homeowners.  Jobs are still being lost which is only going to compound the housing/banking/credit problems.  Credit is still being withdrawn from consumers and small business at a record pace, which will continue to cause deflationary pressures. 

With credit still contracting, where will the leverage come from to sustain a rally?
 
One small example, I have a client who owns a local Volvo dealership.  They sold 75 new cars in the month of September as cash for clunkers was winding down.  It was one of the best Septembers they have ever had.  That was followed with 5 (FIVE) new cars in the month of October which was their worst month in history.  With few exceptions, EVERY small business owner I interface with, regardless of industry, paints a similar picture of business prospects.  Large public companies have been able to outlast competition and cut costs but most smaller businesses are still in a world of hurt.  Should be interesting to see what happens, lots of smart people are calling for a continued rally or a fall off the cliff, somthing has to give.  I hope I am wrong because of the implications to our industry but count me on the bearish side of this argument.
 
I

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

NYCTrader wrote:
Shania Twain wrote: shantom1 wrote: PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?

Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?

HOLY SH*T are you off your F'in rocker?

i hear ya........but the global economy bigger then ANYTHING this guy can do.

your missing forest for trees.

Look at Bubba. he raised taxes etc etc

tech run was bigger then ANYTHING he did.

stay away from us consumer names.

infra
ag
commods
emg markets

"global competition for the world's resources"

obama is toast

he is under 49& now
independents gone
he went way way too far left
he is done

They will ram though healthcare and midterms will be rep blowout

Too early to predict Obama's demise.  His approval numbers follow a similar to trajectory to Reagan's numbers in his first 300 days:   http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htmAs far as the state of the global economy.  Assets (stocks, real estate, etc) are still overvalued.  Consumers and the banking system haven't completed the necessary de-leveraging to get assets back to reasonable valuations.  The spending habits of the emerging middle class BRIC nations won't be enough to spur trade to '07 levels.  Weak dollar is driving this rally.  Not underlying business conditions.  It's a sucker's rally.   Read Bill Gross.http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Midnight+Candles+Gross+November.htm

More bears.

REMEMBER.     everyone bearish

no one left to sell
no one left to sell
no one left to sell
no one left to sell
no one left to sell

(always remember, prices ARE simply supply and demand)

keep shortin it
more cash
keep selling

Can another bear else please tell me how bad stuff is?
I want to hear some more reasons why we are going lower

drive through guy at mcDonalds is a bear.

here is your happy meal.   
have a great day
stocks are going lower

look at 82 to 86.   as we climb this insane wall of worry.
The trap is cash/govies

(Bill Gross is a smart man.   although remember talking his book is bonds not stocks

Lou's picture
Lou
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-21

Kid, you're on a roll. Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Mel,

This is your best post....by far. i love it

LA Broker's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-12-03

Well, ladies and gentlemen we're not here to indulge in fantasy but in political and economic reality. America, America has become a second-rate power. Its trade deficit and its fiscal deficit are at nightmare proportions. Now, in the days of the free market when our country was a top industrial power, there was accountability to the stockholder. The Carnegies, the Mellons, the men that built this great industrial empire, made sure of it because it was their money at stake. Today, management has no stake in the company!  You own the company. That's right, you, the stockholder. And you are all being royally screwed over by these, these bureaucrats, with their luncheons, their hunting and fishing trips, their corporate jets and golden parachutes.

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Nay.

Obama nation is done.   he is under 50% now.
independents gone.
let em ram through healthcare
2010 will be the largest repub blow out in history

NJ and virgina tip of iceberg

he conned people.   people expected a moderate.
He is done.

and it will be like jimmy/ronnie

Mitt's acceptance speech will be like Ronnie in 1980.
romney/palin

LogansRun's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-01-25

You have my vote.

LA Broker's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-12-03

 I don't go to bed with no whore, and I don't wake up with no whore. That's how I live with myself. I don't know how you do it.

LogansRun's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-01-25

Rising profits...strong balance sheet.

SFEZ's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-10-25

Shania Twain wrote:Nay. Obama nation is done.   he is under 50% now. independents gone. let em ram through healthcare 2010 will be the largest repub blow out in history NJ and virgina tip of iceberg he conned people.   people expected a moderate. He is done. and it will be like jimmy/ronnie Mitt's acceptance speech will be like Ronnie in 1980. romney/palin QUOTE]

 
Shania,
 
It's weird for you to be so bearish on the economic policies that are about to happen.......and yet be so bullish on the market.....
 
If the market continues higher for the next year.......and the DOW hits, let's say 12K by election day 2010, it'll be because things have gotten better on the unemployment numbers.....as well as some of the other problems.......And if that happens, the Dems hold onto their edge.
 
You can't have it both ways..........The reason the Dems swept the 2008 elections was because of the economic mess.........The Republicans need numbers to stay poor to overtake the Dems in the mid-term elections......
 
If you think/want the Republicans to reclaim a majority in either or both the Senate and House, then you'll need the market to stay flat or pull back........If it goes higher, the Dems will get the credit (right or wrong) and the Dems keep majorities....

LA Broker's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-12-03

SFEZ wrote:Shania Twain wrote:Nay. Obama nation is done.   he is under 50% now. independents gone. let em ram through healthcare 2010 will be the largest repub blow out in history NJ and virgina tip of iceberg he conned people.   people expected a moderate. He is done. and it will be like jimmy/ronnie Mitt's acceptance speech will be like Ronnie in 1980. romney/palin QUOTE]

 
Shania,
 
It's weird for you to be so bearish on the economic policies that are about to happen.......and yet be so bullish on the market.....
 
If the market continues higher for the next year.......and the DOW hits, let's say 12K by election day 2010, it'll be because things have gotten better on the unemployment numbers.....as well as some of the other problems.......And if that happens, the Dems hold onto their edge.
 
You can't have it both ways..........The reason the Dems swept the 2008 elections was because of the economic mess.........The Republicans need numbers to stay poor to overtake the Dems in the mid-term elections......
 
If you think/want the Republicans to reclaim a majority in either or both the Senate and House, then you'll need the market to stay flat or pull back........If it goes higher, the Dems will get the credit (right or wrong) and the Dems keep majorities....
 
The market does not affect most voters.  Last year it did more than most due to the extreme volatility.  The Dems will be pushed out because people are sick of the the healthcare bill..

SFEZ's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-10-25

LA Broker wrote:
 
The market does not affect most voters.  Last year it did more than most due to the extreme volatility.  The Dems will be pushed out because people are sick of the the healthcare bill..

 
I think most people don't trust the government to take over healthcare, but realize it will probably happen.......in some form.....
 
That being said......By late next year, they should know the real effect of the changes.......any changes in cost and whether they can still go to their current doctors......If those 2 factors aren't affected or are affected  minimally, then it may be a non-event politically.....
 
If, things remain bad........unemployment, the housing market, inflation (gas, food, etc...)....those will make people vote one  way or the other......So, if things remain poor or even get worse, the Dems are out....But, as a consequence, the market likely has a tough year....
 
On the other hand, if things are better, the Dems stay in power......and, as a consequence, the market may have a great year.......
 
So, it's tough to be bullish if you think these policies will fail........and it's tough to be bullish if you think they will fail so badly that there will be a change in the political landscape of the country......

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

SFEZ wrote:
It's weird for you to be so bearish on the economic policies that are about to happen.......and yet be so bullish on the market.....
 
If the market continues higher for the next year.......and the DOW hits, let's say 12K by election day 2010, it'll be because things have gotten better on the unemployment numbers.....as well as some of the other problems.......And if that happens, the Dems hold onto their edge.
 
You can't have it both ways..........The reason the Dems swept the 2008 elections was because of the economic mess.........The Republicans need numbers to stay poor to overtake the Dems in the mid-term elections......
 
If you think/want the Republicans to reclaim a majority in either or both the Senate and House, then you'll need the market to stay flat or pull back........If it goes higher, the Dems will get the credit (right or wrong) and the Dems keep majorities....

Your missing what I think is the REAL story

the global economy

nov 20, 2008   the world changed

check ewz vs spx from nov 20, 2008

IT IS NOT JUST THE USA AND WESTERN EUROPE ANYMORE

DONT MISS THE REAL STORY

billions of additional people in free market economies.
a monster cheap labor pool to keep inflation under control
global govts in easy money mode

check the Baltic dry Index in last 60 days

f obama. he cant screw it up

listen to Ben and geitner.     They have said a million times that the BIG mistake back in the day in the depression was taking the stim off TOO SOON.

My bull case is the lack of inflation. if your ben (or jean claude etc) and there are NO signs of inflation, why not just keep the tit on?

We have some people who bailed in march.   We have one long term stock guy with 2 milish in money market from freaking in march   "get me out-period)"

he get like 23 bucks a month in interest.   
Its making him nuts.
how long can these people take it?   earning zero?   

way way too much cash earning zip     

stocks going higher

Lou's picture
Lou
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-21

Shania Twain wrote:

Mel,

This is your best post....by far. i love it

I don't know who Mel is , but I'm sure he would appreciate your kind words

Iocaine's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-06-25

Shania Twain wrote: SFEZ wrote: My bull case is the lack of inflation. if your ben (or jean claude etc) and there are NO signs of inflation, why not just keep the tit on?
 
Your "bull" case is the exact reason why I am bearish.  Inflation is not the risk here, it is still deflation.  The fed went "all in" to try and stimulate between providing liquidity and low interest rates and they still failed to light a fire under the economy.  Guess why, because credit is still contracting and banks are taking that "Free" money, leveraging it 10-1 and buying "riskless" short term treasuries.  There is simply no money velocity to create inflation because of our debt situation.
 
I actually agree with you regarding the opportunities in emerging markets but I think you are underestimating some of the risks out there.  For the sake of our industry I hope I am wrong.
 
I

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

Iocaine wrote: Shania Twain wrote: SFEZ wrote:
Your "bull" case is the exact reason why I am bearish.  Inflation is not the risk here, it is still deflation.  The fed went "all in" to try and stimulate between providing liquidity and low interest rates and they still failed to light a fire under the economy.  Guess why, because credit is still contracting and banks are taking that "Free" money, leveraging it 10-1 and buying "riskless" short term treasuries.  There is simply no money velocity to create inflation because of our debt situation.
 
I actually agree with you regarding the opportunities in emerging markets but I think you are underestimating some of the risks out there.  For the sake of our industry I hope I am wrong.
 
I

another bear.

I started with ef hutton in 1981
besides after oct 87 crash

ive never been so bullish

no chance......crowd can be right

please.   more bears tell me why market has to go down.

deflation
inflation
obama nation
taxes
healthcare
regulation
iran
toxic assets
terrorism
global warming
mad cow
swine flu
Myan calender
blah blah blah

NYCTrader's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-20

Shania Twain wrote:Look at that picture.
You think Ronnie ever "held cash"?

Get long you girly men

You think Ronnie's portfolio looked like this?

10% US dollar
15% 20 year treasuries
15% corporates
15% aggregate bond index
5% short GOLD
10% TIPS
15% BIL
CASH

Gezz man.
Check for a 7-11 and get some dependsNot sure how you gauge investor sentiment, but from my perspective the "crowd" is bullish right now, not bearish.  I completely agree with you on going against the grain (which is why I went long in January), but now is the time to look around and see that this rally is out of control and take profits.  You've got the media cheerleading a recovery, you've got economists talking about the worst being over, you've got dumf*** analysts telling everyone to buy on the dips, you've got Cramer talking his usual bullish nonsense, you've got momentum guys buying because the trend is your friend til the end, you've got the macro guys buying because of the weak dollar, you've got fundamentals guys buying because companies are beating cupcake earnings numbers, you've got inflation guys buying because stocks beat bonds in an inflationary environment, you've got retail investors buying because they have short term memories and the 6 month charts look great, you've got the savers buying because cash is yielding 0%.  But nobody is buying because the underlying business environment has improved.  

Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

1997     4.08%     1.60%     970.43     44.09     15.52
1998     3.11%     1.32%     1229.23     44.27     16.20
1999     3.07%     1.14%     1469.25     51.68     16.71
2000     3.94%     1.23%     1320.28     56.13     16.27
2001     3.85%     1.37%     1148.09     38.85     15.74
2002     5.23%     1.83%     879.82     46.04     16.08
2003     4.87%     1.61%     1111.91     54.69     17.88
2004     5.58%     1.60%     1211.92     67.68     19.407
2005     5.47%     1.79%     1248.29     76.45     22.38
2006     6.18%     1.77%     1418.3     87.72     25.05
2007     5.62%     1.89%     1468.36     82.54     27.73
2008     7.24%     3.11%     903.25     65.39     28.05

s and p earnings full year 2007      82.54

current 2010 s and p earnings estimate   80.56

productivity on fire.
inventories down
companies lean and mean

part time hiring shot up big time
next jobs number will be big upside surprise.
will be adding jobs feb 2010.

low rates
no inflation
global demand

stocks so cheap

BOSS's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-22

A short week with lots of economic numbers ...watch out below. stocks are expensive...( with a bad economy getting worse ) reality is just around the corner. Remember your firms screwed up the entire world just to make a buck. they don't care about you as long as you can cram a PRODUCT down someones throat. It's their job to brainwash you into thinking things are better than they are. The time has come. You got your resume ready ?

Magician's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-05-19

Let me guess. You are Lou.

Some of us have our own firms.

Some advice for you:

A short week to be alone in your basement.... watch out above, your stepfather might sh1t on you.. (with his diarrhea getting worse)... your boyfriend is not right around the corner. Remember you put yourself in this position, by not working when your firm told you to work, your Mom certainly doesn't care about you - she just wants to take it from behind from Shania, mlgone, iceco1d and and a few others. It's her job to make sure you are productive. She failed. Does your new boyfriend have a basement you can move into?

BOSS's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-22
Shania Twain's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-09-23

yo mel
didnt take long for the magic man to start on the mel hate-o-aid.
u do that to people.

dow futures up 54.   bye bye 08 oct gap.

BOSS's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-22

Shania Twain wrote: yo mel
didnt take long for the magic man to start on the mel hate-o-aid.
u do that to people.

dow futures up 54.   bye bye 08 oct gap.

Hate is such a strong word

newnew's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

"What's up at Firms?" is the category- how does all this relate to that?

BOSS's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-11-22

newnew wrote: "What's up at Firms?" is the category- how does all this relate to that?

Make your own topic if you don't like this one. Nobody asked you. your a guest here. get lost

Dorkydoo's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-10-27

BOSS wrote: newnew wrote: "What's up at Firms?" is the category- how does all this relate to that?

Make your own topic if you don't like this one. Nobody asked you. your a guest here. get lostYou keep changing your make-up and putting on different wigs... are you trying to hide from me?????

Please or Register to post comments.

Industry Newsletters
Investment Category Sponsor Links

 

Careers Category Sponsor Links

Sponsored Introduction Continue on to (or wait seconds) ×