Bottom Yet??

78 replies [Last post]
Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

 
 
1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time."- John Maynard Keynes in 1927 2."I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928 "There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 3."No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928 4."There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 5."Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929 "This crash is not going to have much effect on business."- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929 "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929 "We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929 6."This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." - R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 7."The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 "Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."- The Times of London, November 2, 1929 "The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." - Business Week, November 2, 1929 "...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929 8."... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." - HES, November 10, 1929 "The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929 "In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929 "Financial storm definitely passed."- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929 9."I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929 "I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." - Herbert Hoover, December 1929 "[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929 10."For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930 11."...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930 12."There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." - Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930 13."The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930 "... the outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930 14."... the outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930 15."While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930 "...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." - HES May 17, 1930 "Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 16."... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930 17."... the present depression has about spent its force..." - HES, Aug 30, 1930 18."We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - HES Nov 15, 1930 19."Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." - HES Oct 31, 1931 20."All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."- President F.D. Roosevelt, 193321.
22 Years go by, WWII, Korean war, before the market gets back to EVEN.

Dark Knight's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-01-30

You forgot to put all the quotes at the bottom saying how the stock market is dead, and then show what happened for the rest of the century.

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

Dark Knight wrote:You forgot to put all the quotes at the bottom saying how the stock market is dead, and then show what happened for the rest of the century.
 

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

Hey...its just "past performance".....now READ and look at #4.....sounds alot like today.

Morphius's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-21

I hope you're not implying that only those who make bullish predictions are only wrong.  Seems to me that trying to predict the future leads to frequent failure for both bears and bulls.  An equal opportunity destroyer, as it were.Reminds me of a favorite quote from famous economist John Kenneth Galbraith: "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

Of course not..bulls have been right about 3/4th of the time..no one can predict the future...no one.
 
Morph, we've touched on this before.  Credit is in the worst shape in history, the financial market is faltering, and we have supply/demand crisis in commodities and oil.  It is just an educated opinion on my part...like Indy said..time will tell.

EDJ4now's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-02-08

Broker7 wrote: 
21.
22 Years go by, WWII, Korean war, before the market gets back to EVEN.
 
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think this is NOT including reinvesting dividends, which would make a substantial difference.  I'm not saying that it wasn't bad, but that it may not be as dismal as this statistic would indicate.
 
FWIW, the book that has helped me the most in this job was required reading for a college statistics course "How to Lie with Statistics".  It helps keep the BS antenna up whenever I see numbers posted by someone trying to sell me something or get me to sell something for them.  Not that Broker7 cares if I go short or long, but I'm guessing this is not something he created himself over the weekend.

Big Taco's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-11-16

7, with each post you become increasingly irrelevant to this forum.

Morphius's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-07-21

Big Taco wrote:7, with each post you become increasingly irrelevant to this forum.I don't agree, my large Mexican food friend.  I certainly don't agree with 7's viewpoint of the imminent global financial apocalypse, but so long as he is willing to try and rationally support and defend his position rather than just state it, no harm no foul.  That doesn't mean I'm going to invite him to my next party to provide light comic relief!

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

Broker7 wrote:Credit is in the worst shape in history, the financial market is faltering, and we have supply/demand crisis in commodities and oil.
 
Again, all three assertions are opinion and not fact and while I'll acknowledge that the global economy is far from problem-free, I don't share any of these opinions. 
 
Not long ago when we were discussing oil supply and demand, I provided a link that shows current excess capacity of just under two million barrels a day, with the surplus forecasted to go to four million barrels per day in 2009.  Of course, OPEC, Chavez or whoever can choose to not run at capacity, which they've certainly done at times, to support or drive up current prices and profits, but I would argue that we are not using more than we are capable of producing.  Such a situation would make the price of oil go off the charts...much higher than we're seeing.  The day that happens, you will see alternative fuel research go through the roof, and the last oil reserves will never be extracted.  As an aside, I've seen some folks on the bull side arguing that oil is not organic and is actually regenerating and expanding reserves in some deep gulf fields.  Apparently neither the bulls nor the bears have cornered the market on lunatics.

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

EDJ4now wrote:Broker7 wrote: 
21.
22 Years go by, WWII, Korean war, before the market gets back to EVEN.
 
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think this is NOT including reinvesting dividends, which would make a substantial difference.  I'm not saying that it wasn't bad, but that it may not be as dismal as this statistic would indicate.
 
FWIW, the book that has helped me the most in this job was required reading for a college statistics course "How to Lie with Statistics".  It helps keep the BS antenna up whenever I see numbers posted by someone trying to sell me something or get me to sell something for them.  Not that Broker7 cares if I go short or long, but I'm guessing this is not something he created himself over the weekend.
 
I'm pretty sure that is correct and more on point, dividends used to represent about half of total return, so that statement is flawed at best.  It just goes to show that there's a lot of truth in your book.  It's not hard at all to find valid statistics to defend two opposing postions...it's done in politics all the time...

Big Taco's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-11-16

Morphius wrote: Big Taco wrote:7, with each post you become increasingly irrelevant to this forum.I don't agree, my large Mexican food friend.  I certainly don't agree with 7's viewpoint of the imminent global financial apocalypse, but so long as he is willing to try and rationally support and defend his position rather than just state it, no harm no foul.  That doesn't mean I'm going to invite him to my next party to provide light comic relief!
 
Allright, I forgot to insert "IMO" in my post.  Yes Morphius, I speak for myself, not anyone else here.
 
I just wrote to 7 in reply to his IM that I think his GEAB and Depression posts are akin to yellow journalism, in otherwords; spin and sensationalism which add up to nothing.  It's like part of the Early Show I caught this morning where Harry Smith and some other windbag went on and on about how Swaps are surely going to lead to global economic collapse in the near future -- and yet it was clear to me that for all the big talk and out-there parallels drawn, there wasn't even a reasonable explanation of what a Swap is!  Average Americans just learned 6 months ago what a sub prime mortgage is...  It was nothing more than sensationalistic fear mongering!  The rhetoric they used was unbelievable -- it was  like the GEAB website and had the tone of a raunchy ghost story told around a campfire.  I half expected Harry to be holding a flashlight up to his chin when the B-roll was finished.
 
I could just see ma and pa client waking up, eating their oatmeal, drinking their coffee, and then these nincompoops try to scare the crap out of them before 7am with complete drivel.  I told my wife I'm going to have to start eating breakfast in the den if she insists on watching these hacks.  I'll watch my TiVo'd Reno:911! and start the day off right--with a smile.
 
So, speaking for myself, to me 7 is becoming increasingly irrelevant to the quality of this forum (which I see as relatively high), although he seems like a nice enough guy all the same. 
 
I'm not the Content Police, some folks would rather read Weekly World News instead of TIME.  So be it.  Let's say the next few years are The Great Depression II.  The market WILL rebound eventually.  OR, we'll all just have to reconcile ourselves to living on an acreage, planting a garden, curing and scraping hides, cutting down trees for heating fuel (or burning dollar bills), reading by candlelight, bartering, fending off marauders (or marauding).  So looking at a crackpot website and a line chart that ends at the bottom of the depression seems like a waste of time to me.  Like the Early Show.

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

Quality of this forum as in a high and mighty bull market optimists Kneal , Kudlow and cramer?? Or do you even consider the other side of the coin?  There is alot of quality there too.   I've seen my fair share of idiots (ms Obama derivatives and good old Kerko to name a few) on this forum..and you definitely are not one of them, Taco.  You also seem like a good guy.  DID THEY REALLY TALK ABOUT CDS's ON THE MORNING SHOW TODAY???
Dang...that's not drivel..it is a fundamental concern.  What the heck does CBS have to gain by fearmongering??
That seems very very mainstream for such dire news......Just agree to disagree or just don't view my posts..peace
This was on CNBC today..it is worth watching:

http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=_0BsjygRBD_8wiWRTRiq44kHrEhFtl2L&UserName=cmsguest@cnbc.com&key=DMMYXpOPczgAMnA8pBHFkwPx3cY%3D&reporting=part=TOS|parttype=VOD|partcode=40642

Dark Knight's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-01-30

Broker7 wrote:
Dang...that's not drivel..it is a fundamental concern.  What the heck does CBS have to gain by fearmongering??


 
Fear sells my friend fear sells.

Ashland's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-03-07

Apparently, hope does, too. Look at Barack...

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

Fear and Hope..yes.  What we need is a PLAN.  Buddy of mine from the Hoosier state eailed me this.
 
http://www.indianaeconomicdigest.net/main.asp?SectionID=31&SubSectionID=62

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

OK, Dennis Hopper, that's yet another one-sided report being used to serve an agenda.  Where are all the new businesses and expansions of current businesses?  Indiana's December 2007 unemployment rate was 4.6%...as opposed to the national rate of 5.0%.  Apparently people are not having difficulty replacing these jobs.  IIRC, a new Honda plant is coming online in Indiana and apparently, there are a lot of new jobs to offset these losses...
 
http://www.indianaeconomicdigest.net/main.asp?SectionID=31&subsectionID=64&articleID=38464
 

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSDXB00015620080225

Greenspan acknowledges oil crisis.
 

"As of right now, U.S. economic growth is at zero," Greenspan said at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city. "We are at stall speed."
"Recovery might take longer to emerge than it usually does," he added.
The longer growth stays at zero, the more likely the world's largest economy would start to contract, he said, adding that globalization of trade could ease some shocks.

Greenspan also said a boom in oil prices, which hit a record of $101.32 on Wednesday, will "go on forever".
Soaring crude prices have kept U.S. inflation high, even as growth slows

Dark Knight's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-01-30

LOL, nothing goes forever.  Markets adjust.  Even if it takes 100 years, forever is an overstatement.  (It's always different this time until it's the same.  Sounds like even Greenspan isn't immune to over-exuberance and exaggerations.)
 
What do you think forever really is 5 yrs?  10 yrs?  I say less than 5.
 
Plus how can it go on forever if it is a finite resource? C'mon
What  a ridiculous comment by Mr. Greenspan, he's a little full of himself I think.

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

as far as oil prices increasing goes...you say,  less than 5 years..and then what?  Do you have a fundamental basis for making that statement?   Greenspan does.

Nothing goes forever...you said it

Dark Knight's picture
Offline
Joined: 2008-01-30

Look, trying to take my words out of context with a record you can't remove only makes you look stupid.  Of course prices will increase forever it's called inflation. 
You referred to the BOOM in oil prices.  Oil is up over 50% in the past 12 monhts, why don't you tell us how long that will continue you freaking idiot. 
 
Here is a lesson even you and Greenspan can understand, ECON 101.  Increased demand brings new entrants to the market which increase supply and/or creates substitutes.  Therefore over time things revert to sustainable mediums.  Prices cannot rise at unsustainable rates indefinitely.   
 
In addition I was clearly not trying to PREDICT a time frame of five years and I won't try to have a fundamental basis.  I'm GUESSING.  Just like you and Greenspan are guessing.  You really have no more clue than anyone else.  Oil could be $40 in a year for all any of us know. 
 
 

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

Oil will keep going on an upward real cost adjusted tragectory....till the end of our current global money/economic system. I have a fundamentals to support that, as does Greenspan.
 
Yes oil could be $40 a barrel..and the dollar index could be 20,  at the same time the dow could be 60,000..at the same time, we could be in a depression. do you see how that could be?   If so...please explain...if not...who's the "freaking idiot".....
 
Thank you for the compliment lumping me in with Mr. Greenspan. 
 
And thanks for the lesson...."Prices cannot rise at unsustainable rates indefinitely."
You are right...bingo..look at our current economic state.
 
 

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

You and the GEAB wackos only think you have the fundamentals to support that.  I'll say it again...we will never pump the last barrel of oil.  Long before that, oil will be obsolete.
 
Here we go...it's the end of the world all over again...

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

There was a line in that Syriana movie (I think that was it, with Clooney & Matt Damon?)...Matt Damon told Prince (insert Saudi prince I cannot remember) that, "50 years ago your people were riding camels around the desert, cutting each others' heads off...keep spending like you do now without investing & diversifying, and you'll be right back there in another 50 years."  I thought that was a great quote.
Alternative fuels are coming.  Developing countries will build their infrastructure, from transportation to power plants, on fuels that don't involve oil, much like the countries that developed communications infrastructure more recently built everything on fiber optics, and not our crappy twisted pair copper phone lines. 
 
Hybrids, Ethanol, BioDiesel, Hydrogen Fuel Cells, Solar, Wind, Nuclear energy....it's all coming, and it's coming worldwide.  I'm not saying it will be tomorrow, but I think sometime in the next 5-10 years you will see oil become less and less relevant to our economy and lifestyle.  As usual...just my humble .02. 

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

Ice,
That was a great movie.
 
I will agree with the fact that the world with have to become less ans less dependant on oil in the near future, as the economic metrics of supply and demand will dictate that.
But as far as oil becoming less relevant..oil is not just an energy source..look around you, nearly everything you see is manufactured using oil, as is food and pharmaceuticals.  We are in the oil age, and its shortage, I feel, will be and has been the MOST relevant to our economy and lifestyle.   ie: if we still had $15 bbl oil of a few years ago..the current financial/credit crisis may have been averted.

fastcar's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-21

This thread truely amazes me.  B7 bringing down the quality of this forum? He may be bringing down the optimism of the forum..but he's been nailing it on the head with alot of what he has said. Ben and the feds are FAR more waco then GEAB.  The greed driven economy has been paralyzed by FEAR.

Ashland's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-03-07

This thing is never going to bottom. Don't you know that every time the market goes up it goes back down. This has happened again and again. Up, down, up, down, up . . .

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

Broker7 wrote:
Hey...its just "past performance".....now READ and look at #4.....sounds alot like today.

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

Broker7 wrote:
Hey...its just "past performance".....now READ and look at #4.....sounds alot like today.
 
I'll add to my previous post.
 
I see nothing in this quote that relates to today. Same goes for the rest of the quotes. To list these quotes makes these men sound laughable. Yet, as we read these quotes we are taking them out of the context of the times. Considering how good the Twenties were, it would be hard to be anything but an optimist.
 
That said, let's look at the similarities between then and now:
 
In the eight years prior to the crash of 1929 the stock market was up 600%. Ok, ya got me, it was only up 597%. You know, just like today.
 
The Fed lowered interest rates in 1925 and kept them low to support the British pound. They did this to help England support the Gold Standard. The pound was the World commerce denomination of choice so supporting it made perfect sense. Again, just like today.
 
The low interest rates depressed the dollar leading to a boom in exports, just like what we have right now.
 
Margin requirements were only 10% fueling nearly unbridled speculation, just like today.
 
The Fed tightened credit causing massive banking failures. The banking failures in turned reduced the money supply not only wiping out the life savings of depositors but also the deposits of businesses, thus crippling the economy. Just like now.
 
The economies of the major super powers of the day, U.S., France, Germany. U.K., deflated 29% in 1929 alone, just like today.
 
The government, in an effort to boost the economy enacted a 50% tariff. Yep, we've got that goin on.
 
Our major trading partners reacted in kind to our tariff with tariffs of their own thus shutting down world commerce. Nobody was trading with anybody. Just like today.
 
Because nothing else had worked to pull us out of the depression, the government believed that people were stuffing their mattresses with cash and not spending it. This was in fact the case. Money being saved was a problem in that it did nothing to help the economy. So leave it to your freindly neighborhood congressman to solve the problem by raising taxes from 25% to a wopping 63%. If you wouldn't spend your money the government would take it from you and spend it for you. The government reasoned that lower taxes hadn't worked. of course taking money out the economy doesn't work! This is exactly like today.
 
Enough!
 
 The depression was not caused by the stock market crash of 1929. The market was a symptom, not the disease. Unbridled growth of the twenties, the repressive reactionary monetary policy combined with ill timed tax increases, mixed with a rise in world protectionism all came together to cause the depression.
 
 
 
That's not to say that what's going on today isn't serious business, because it is. Our leaders got it wrong in 1929 and that led to a decade of misery. Are our leaders today any smarter? Will they get it right? I believe they are. Yet, only time will tell.
 
 
 
 

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

Excellent post BondGuy; well written.

Ashland's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-03-07

BondGuy - what you forgot to add to your post was - things are cheap, go shopping!

Broker7's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-23

Houses are cheap, stocks are cheap, and the dollar is very cheap right now. I feel those things will generally continue to get significantly cheaper.  Just be very picky on the things you go shopping for.  Work that swing trade...play both sides.

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

B7, you've made it painfully obvious to all on this forum that you are a wrong way bettor who holds optimist in low regard. Of course whether today's optimist statements turn out to just that, or fact, only the future will tell. And while I hold out that the future is unknowable and anything is possible, I hang my hat and my financial well being on the fact that market bottomed in 1932 at 40 and despite everything our world has thrown at it since, has increased 30,000% to its current level.
 
B7, of course you are welcomed to express your opinions here. Makes for some interesting debate. It also acts as a reality check in that the downside is very real and very possible. And of course there is a lot of money to be made on the short side. An arena I gravitate to myself occasionally. Yet, that said, some freindly advice; for your continued good health whatever else you may do, don't take your wrong way bettor mentality to a craps table in AC. You might make it a few steps outside the casino before you realize your mistake. And we wouldn't want to see anything happen to our favorite short.
 
 
 

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

I still remember Bill Gross predicting Dow 5,000 when it was in the sevens...just before it took off.  That tells me that people a lot smarter than any of us can't predict the short-term direction of the market.  Long-term is much easier, and that's the arena I stake my professional reputation to.  I likewise enjoy poking fun at the folks on the short side of the fence who are likely sitting with a smug grin on their faces at the moment.  Inevitably, this false sense of security gets a reality check when the market is 30% higher and bears are still sitting in TIPS and commodities...and on the wrong side of short trades and futures contracts.  Given the history of the market, and the extreme pessimism of the moment, I like my chances staying (mostly) long.

fastcar's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-21

You are right indyone, long term is much easier this time..just take a look at the global economy...easy to make an educated decision based on that.
 
I wouldn't call B7 the gambler....Lmfao!!..you buy and hold equities guys are blowing up right now....I just read his commodities thread from nov 07..he nailed that one while most of us were laughing at him.  I find his opinions to be well in sync with what is going on with the economy.    "Wrong way bettor"...come on...if you are long the market...you are the wrong way bettor....nothing to do with optimism here....just the reality of the situation.
 
Time to vent....SAD but TRUE:
 
For a realtor..it is always the right time to buy a house.
For an investment salesman..it is always the right  time to buy.
Stop being a saleman and try to understand what is going on...that is what you are paid for.
 

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

Stop being a salesman?  We couldn't have sold clients a similar strategy to the one B7 recommended?  Last I checked, I could've had my clients shorting, dumped their money into commodities, or bailed to cash too.
 
You talk about waking up?  Crashes happen.  Recessions happen.  You know what else happens?  The market goes back up and economies recover (and then they crash again)...and just like VERY FEW get lucky enough to predict when various markets have truly peaked, VERY FEW also get lucky enough to predict when the market has troughed.  Most people that try to time those market moves, will miss more often than they hit, and will do nothing over the long-haul but rack up excessive transaction costs and waste time. 
 
Granted, if you are within 5 years to retirement, that's a different story, hopefully you had an appropriate strategy in place before this mess started...but for the remainder of the investing public, you are just wasting your time and their money bouncing around (barring a few glaring market inefficiencies from time to time). 
 
"No bottom in sight..." yee-haw.

fastcar's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-21

No offense..but DUDE. you know you havent been shorting or acting in a similar strategy as B7.  You are a permabull telling your clients, "at least you are buying more shares with your money" 
 
 
I didn't talk about waking up, but I think it is time for you to wake up.
"a few glaring market inefficiencies "  give me a break.
 
Recessions happen, depressions happen.
 
This is the biggest financial debacle in history...world history.  If you can't sell the long term short...you need to rethink your career choice.  All this is just MHO
 
 

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

Just read your comments in another thread about the dollar index...any chance you could point me to a place where you showed concern for this last year?  The year before?  The year before that?  Or do you only bring up specific figures that bolster the particular argument you are trying to prove? 
By the way...I don't think I ever claimed to use a similar strategy to B7, I said I could have.  You told IndyOne that he needs to stop being a salesman...I was simply pointing out that we could have sold the same chit as B7 if we wanted to. 
 
More on this later...

fastcar's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-21

Sorry man, never said you used fundamentals in your advisement, just guessed you are a permabull by your retorts, we are all entitled to our own opinion, no mater how positive or negative...right?   My other post about the dollar index...not on this forum...just telling F. Bueller to shut the hell up with his retarded comments. It was sometime in 2003 after the index sank under 100. I made a note to watch the dollar.  At that time, I guessd the war  would destroy the dollar. Cant believe it has been  nearly 5 years, since I personally called SCAM on the financial system.  Ask the question to a fellow broker about the dollar index..and what are its effects..7 out of ten will have NO CLUE...that is some sad crazy crap.

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

fastcar wrote:
No offense..but DUDE. you know you havent been shorting or acting in a similar strategy as B7. 
 
Like I said, no I was not, nor do I plan to. 
 
You are a permabull telling your clients, "at least you are buying more shares with your money" 
 
Thank you for your analysis of my personality and my client relationships...I was unaware that through the reading of a half dozen of my posts you are able to infer such vast information about me.  Quite a skill you have there.   
 
I didn't talk about waking up, but I think it is time for you to wake up.
"a few glaring market inefficiencies "  give me a break.
 
My apologies.  All the Ph.Ds, all the economists, all the millions, check that, billions of dollars worth of research that goes on daily, but only you, B7, and a few other brilliant minds are able to predict the looming, unavoidable, and complete collapse of the worldwide economy.  I mean, it's been "in the making" since the turn of the century, right?  Almost 10 years, and you guys are the only ones to see it coming.  Yikes.  Based on what, the research you read on some economic conspiracy theorists blog site, coupled with your visits to morningstar, yahoo! finance, and your subscription to the wsj? 
 
Sorry man, I have yet to see one major institution implement the strategies you are suggesting; but if you think your research capabilities are superior and your forecasting
models are more accurate, I will again apologize.
 
Recessions happen, depressions happen.
 
This is the biggest financial debacle in history...world history.
 
Aren't they all?
 
  If you can't sell the long term short...you need to rethink your career choice.  All this is just MHO
 
If I can't sell the long-term short, I need to rethink my career choice?  I think quite the opposite. 
 
 
This is really for another post, or maybe even not for posting at all...but based on the worldwide economic landscape, nothing that has happened to the dollar should be shocking, and most certainly not catastrophic or worthy of adopting a "long term short" strategy for the remainder of my career. 
 
I don't think I need to re-hash what I already posted about the mortgage/credit debacle, but those results don't surprise me either (and I'm actually glad it happened). 
 
By the way; I don't need to tell my clients anything that you implied.  They were in the proper place all along....they were OK before this "crisis" started, they are OK now, and they will be OK when the "market" rebounds (which, more likely than not, your clients won't be able to say the same a few years from now).  Some of you gloom & doomers debate [what you call] permabulls under the assumption and generalization that because we don't adopt your strategy and views, that our clients have already suffered terribly at the hands of "the market", and that is simply not universally true. 
 
PS- I didn't get the chance to read your previous post, as I was busy typing this novel when you posted it...but I agree with much of it, especially the part about being entitled to your own opinion, and even more so the part about 7/10 brokers not knowing...well, plenty, about finance & economics.  But then again, that's not in our job description (which is the saddest story of all). 

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

fastcar wrote:You are right indyone, long term is much easier this time..just take a look at the global economy...easy to make an educated decision based on that.
 
I wouldn't call B7 the gambler....Lmfao!!..you buy and hold equities guys are blowing up right now....I just read his commodities thread from nov 07..he nailed that one while most of us were laughing at him.  I find his opinions to be well in sync with what is going on with the economy.    "Wrong way bettor"...come on...if you are long the market...you are the wrong way bettor....nothing to do with optimism here....just the reality of the situation.
 
Time to vent....SAD but TRUE:
 
For a realtor..it is always the right time to buy a house.
For an investment salesman..it is always the right  time to buy.
Stop being a saleman and try to understand what is going on...that is what you are paid for.
 
 
Fastcar-
 
Couple questions here:
 
You are B7?
 
Are you an advisor or just a short who has found his way onto the forum?
 
I ask  because you come off as someone who isn't an advisor. That you use and reuse the term investment salesman is a tell. That you use it derisively is also a tell. Your thinking is short term-tell. "Buy and hold equity guys"- tell. "Stop being a salesaman and try to understand what's going on"- not only a tell, but disingenuous as well. That you don't include youself as an "investment salesman", not even one who's strategy is to short the market, which,  by the way, would still be an investment, tells me you're not an advisor.
 
It's also obvious that you have no idea what a wrong way bettor is. But here's a clue to what it's not; it's not someone who invests against a trend. Which means, those who are long the market, with market in a down trend, are not wrong way bettors. I'll leave it to you to seach the net for the answer.
 
So, you aren't an advisor, and you don't understand some basic terms. My question: why are you here?
 
 

fastcar's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-21

LMFAO...Are you kidding? Of course I'm an advisor.  SERIES 7 2000....you??
77mm AUM....you? 
 
Let me call you out..are you really a bond guy?  
 I think alot like Broker7, from what I've read. He/she is more of an optimist than I am...I see a fast crash.      Just differentiating myself from the sheep (YOU), by letting my clients know i'm not a saleman.....try it..it definitely works.  Next time PM me if you are going to talk trash.

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

fastcar wrote:LMFAO...Are you kidding? Of course I'm an advisor.  SERIES 7 2000....you??
77mm AUM....you? 
 
Let me call you out..are you really a bond guy?  
 I think alot like Broker7, from what I've read. He/she is more of an optimist than I am...I see a fast crash.      Just differentiating myself from the sheep (YOU), by letting my clients know i'm not a saleman.....try it..it definitely works.  Next time PM me if you are going to talk trash.
 
Ah, your the guy who doesn't know what a wrong way bettor is, right? Or was the other guy?  And english is a second language for you, right?
 
I do have a serious question: what's the meaning of fastcar?  You're a NASCAR fan?
 
77mm in assets? All riding on the Don't Pass Line. (look it up)
 
Hey, don't be offended, I kid with you. It's obvious that you are not a salesman. you are so smart and drive such superior transportation that people, that is rich people, just throw their money at you. You don't have to sell, you need only show up. Cool!
 
As for me, well, I'm stuck here driving the 94 Estate Wagon, and I cower in your presence. And all I really have to say is "Baa."
 
 
 

doberman's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-02-22

[quote=BondGuy
 
Hey, don't be offended, I kid with you. It's obvious that you are not a salesman. you are so smart and drive such superior transportation that people, that is rich people, just throw their money at you. You don't have to sell, you need only show up. Cool!
 
As for me, well, I'm stuck here driving the 94 Estate Wagon, and I cower in your presence. And all I really have to say is "Baa."
 
 
 
 
Brag, brag, brag...

fastcar's picture
Offline
Joined: 2007-02-21

Well?? How long have U been in the industry? How much  AUM?? No answer.  Are you really a broker? By the way english is my second language , and fastcar is my F430.  It does command alot of attention...a conversation piece for the high net worth..

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

fastcar wrote:Well?? How long have U been in the industry? How much  AUM?? No answer.  Are you really a broker? By the way english is my second language , and fastcar is my F430.  It does command alot of attention...a conversation piece for the high net worth..
 
Ahh, the F430! That's the one with the  engine derived from a shared design, right? Ferrari shared the engine design with , who was that? It's right on the tip of my tongue? Sorry, can't come up with it, care to help me out?
 
And I have to admit, the Buick doesn't have the way cool Manettino Dials that you get to play with. But, then again you can't get a 4X8 sheet of plywood in the back seat like I can. So I guess it all evens out.
 
By the way, on the english is a second language thing; you didn't have to answer, we already knew.
 
Where did I say I was an advisor? 
 
I'd answer the AUM question, if I knew what AUM was? Or is it what AUM is?
 
Mind if I call you Wrong Way?
 
 
 
 
 
 

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

Ferris Bueller wrote:Maserati is the name. He's a liar. He might have the diecast version, but even that I doubt. http://www.autotrader.co.uk/EDITORIAL/car_page_content/fake_ferrari_gang_is_caught.html
 
Ferris, what am I going to do with you? Of course it's Maserati. Every car guy knows that. The question is, or was, does fastcar?
 
And yes, you have him pegged.
 
No problem, I'll set him up again.
 
I have to admit that I find his belief that people are impressed by cars entertaining. And I question why he picked the F430 of all cars to try to impress us with? It's an aging supercar,  so 2004. My best guess is that he picked it because he could spell it without fouling it up.
 
 
 
 

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

I'll take my M5 any day. Fast and versatile. PLUS I can put clients in it, something slowcar doesn't have.

BondGuy's picture
Offline
Joined: 2006-09-21

Ferris Bueller wrote:I'll take my M5 any day. Fast and versatile. PLUS I can put clients in it, something slowcar doesn't have.
 
I like the M5. But you still can't pull stumps with it like I can with the RoadMaster!
 
 

Indyone's picture
Offline
Joined: 2005-05-31

Geez...and to think I was feeling fly about my new Chrysler 300 limited...I skipped the hemi so I wouldn't contribute excessively to the oil shortage...

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

Pretty simple to prove...just print out this thread, take a pic of the printout laying on the hood of your F430, and post away. 

Please or Register to post comments.

Industry Newsletters
Investment Category Sponsor Links

 

Sponsored Introduction Continue on to (or wait seconds) ×