Thank God the Bear Market is Over

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Vin Diesel's picture
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Likes like we have finally bottomed...time to ride the momentum!

ednomore's picture
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I think we have seen the bottom, but I think we are in a bear market bounce. We should see some real upside after mid year, but I hope you are correct that the bear market is over

gvf's picture
gvf
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HURRY EVERYONE CASH OUT THOSE VARIABLE ANNUITIES!!! NO NEED FOR THOSE ANNUAL M&E EXPENSES1!!

Bodysurf's picture
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Sure.

HymanRoth's picture
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iceco1d wrote:Oh f*ck.  We are definitely screwed now.  That same issue crossed my mind....

troll's picture
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Once the market rebounds, tax rates will double to pay for all this "stimulus".

Philo Kvetch's picture
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Vin Diesel wrote: Likes like we have finally bottomed...time to ride the momentum!

Believe what you like, but I think we're in the top half of the first inning of a long, prolonged secular bear market and I'm positioning accordingly.

B24's picture
B24
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Philo Kvetch wrote: Vin Diesel wrote: Likes like we have finally bottomed...time to ride the momentum! Believe what you like, but I think we're in the top half of the first inning of a long, prolonged secular bear market and I'm positioning accordingly.
 
I agree with your secular theory.  However, I think we are a bit beyond the first inning.  I think we are around the 5th inning (and 10 years in).  The next shoe to drop will be consumer credit, and then Obama-flation. 

2wheeledbeemer's picture
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B24 wrote:Philo Kvetch wrote: Vin Diesel wrote: Likes like we have finally bottomed...time to ride the momentum! Believe what you like, but I think we're in the top half of the first inning of a long, prolonged secular bear market and I'm positioning accordingly.
 
I agree with your secular theory.  However, I think we are a bit beyond the first inning.  I think we are around the 5th inning (and 10 years in).  The next shoe to drop will be consumer credit, and then Obama-flation. 
 
"Now, this is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
Winston Churchill

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

"I'm sure it will work" - French Defense Minister Andre Maginot

snaggletooth's picture
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"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." - Yogi Berra

Philo Kvetch's picture
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"I didn't really say everything I said."
                               --Yogi Berra

MinimumVariance's picture
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Me thinks you R a wee bit premature

snaggletooth's picture
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MinimumVariance wrote:Me thinks you R a wee bit premature
 
I wonder what you're like in real life...you strike me as an odd fellow.

B24's picture
B24
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MinimumVariance wrote:Me thinks you R a wee bit premature
 
.....said his wife....

MinimumVariance's picture
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snaggletooth wrote:MinimumVariance wrote:Me thinks you R a wee bit premature
 
I wonder what you're like in real life...you strike me as an odd fellow.
 

Y do Usay that? Did Eday tell you to post that condescending response?

skeedaddy2's picture
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You saw what happened to the market in general with the short covering rally in financials? The markets can't make progress without financials participating. The New Plan is due out on Monday, about 2 weeks early. Maybe we'll get a spark of confidence.

MinimumVariance's picture
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What with the likes of Barney and Maxine trying to set wages and salaries watch financials collapse Mon am.

skeedaddy2's picture
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I don't need sex, the government F*UCKS me everyday! 

Vin Diesel's picture
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Joined: 2007-04-18

this looks to be tradeable bear market rally

B24's picture
B24
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A.K.A. "Sucker's Rally"
 
The shorts are coming....

buyandhold's picture
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B24 wrote:A.K.A. "Sucker's Rally"
 
The shorts are coming....I feel like calling all my skittish clients to say, 'Ok, if you want off this train, right now is the time.'

skeedaddy2's picture
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MinimumVariance wrote:What with the likes of Barney and Maxine trying to set wages and salaries watch financials collapse Mon am. [clearing my throat]  Were you just talking or "talking your book"?

Vin Diesel's picture
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looks like the bear is over...time to load the boat on financials

snaggletooth's picture
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Vin Diesel wrote:looks like the bear is over...time to load the boat on financials
 
Ehhh, is this being sarcastic?

Herman Munster's picture
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Just curious:
 
The banks are raising new equity capital now at peak short term prices.
 
Last month they were trading much lower and no one was interested in buying banks. How helpful has this rally been for the banks and the government? 
 
When it helps them it screws you. I plan on keeping my recent gains. Take some gains off the table while you can.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Ron 14's picture
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Its obvious that not a person on this site can consistently predict market fluctuations. Its obvious that many people on the planet can't do this either, so why bother ? Get in, stay in, and win. And yes, you can still win even though you may have lost 35% the year before.

Sam Houston's picture
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Ron 14 wrote:Its obvious that not a person on this site can consistently predict market fluctuations. Its obvious that many people on the planet can't do this either, so why bother ? Get in, stay in, and win. And yes, you can still win even though you may have lost 35% the year before.
 
You can win more if you didn''t lose 35% the year before.

Ron 14's picture
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yes, that is correct

Herman Munster's picture
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Ron:
 
Buy and hold?
 
I have clients that bought and held in the year 2000 and they have not made a profit yet.
 
How can you add value and justify a fee if you don't do some sort of market timing? I'm not suggesting huge allocation swings but I think we have to do something to grow the accounts. 
 
This market is forcing more activity. There's no real economic growth so justing sitting around in the asset allocation model is not going to work. I can buy the Fidelity lifestyle fund and do that.
 
I would  rather buy and hold and watch the money grow. It would meet my client's objectives and allow me to spend my time prospecting and planning.  Mean time I have to try something different.  

Sam Houston's picture
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iceco1d wrote:Sam Houston wrote:Ron 14 wrote:Its obvious that not a person on this site can consistently predict market fluctuations. Its obvious that many people on the planet can't do this either, so why bother ? Get in, stay in, and win. And yes, you can still win even though you may have lost 35% the year before.
 
You can win more if you didn''t lose 35% the year before.
 
And you can win even more than that, if you aren't a Vikings fan! 
 
Favre will take us to the SB!

Sam Houston's picture
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Herman Munster wrote:Ron:
 
Buy and hold?
 
I have clients that bought and held in the year 2000 and they have not made a profit yet.
 
How can you add value and justify a fee if you don't do some sort of market timing? I'm not suggesting huge allocation swings but I think we have to do something to grow the accounts. 
 
This market is forcing more activity. There's no real economic growth so justing sitting around in the asset allocation model is not going to work. I can buy the Fidelity lifestyle fund and do that.
 
I would  rather buy and hold and watch the money grow. It would meet my client's objectives and allow me to spend my time prospecting and planning.  Mean time I have to try something different.  
 
I like big allocation swings.

Herman Munster's picture
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Maybe it's not clear. I had a couple drinks and it's late.
My basic thought is that if you can use a little trading activity to increase returns you'll help your client. Buying and holding does not always work.
 
 

Sam Houston's picture
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Nothing always works. 

Herman Munster's picture
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Agreed

Sam Houston's picture
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And before we start talking about trends, and blah, blah, blah, blah, Sam posted a few weeks ago that technicals indicated the market was about to head back south...I hope he didn't act on that "indicator." 

 
 
 
???????????????

Ron 14's picture
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iceco1d wrote:Herman,
 
MOST mutual funds out there don't "buy and hold" the same static allocation.  They have teams of Ph.Ds, MBAs, CFAs, and CPAs actively trading, and most of these funds were unsuccessful at avoiding the crash as well.
What makes you think that you, the retail "financial advisor" can beat them? 
 
Besides, "buy and hold" doesn't mean you have to be only buying and holding stocks.  Or buying and holding just bonds.  You can be "buying and holding" a multitude of assets.  You can be making allocation changes based on client situation, not necessarily the market or economy, and still be a "buy and hold" investor. 
 
In fact, Mr. Munster, if you take a look at a TRUE "buy and hold" portfolio, say of ETFs, or index funds, you'll find the balanced plain vanilla asset allocations did much better than many, many actively managed asset allocation funds (or other funds that have the latitude to go to equity, fixed income, and cash, at will).
 
Many people took a little extra beating last year, doing the exact things you propose. 
 
And before we delve into Sams rebuttal - yes, you can buy & hold things that have negative correlation to the market too.  No, that doesn't mean a perfect -1 correlation, it just means negative.  No, that isn't a broken concept either.
 
And before we start talking about trends, and blah, blah, blah, blah, Sam posted a few weeks ago that technicals indicated the market was about to head back south...I hope he didn't act on that "indicator." 
 
In any case, not trying to debate this again - but what you are proposing we should be doing to add value is false. 
 
You want to add value to clients by doing something other than buying and holding ETFs?  Go sell annuities and lock out the downside.  Go sell munis to rich people in high tax brackets and provide them with tax efficient cash flow.  Go make sure people have enough life and disability insurance.  Go show people how to limit the downside to their asset allocation portfolios by using options.  Go make sure people are funding their Roth IRAs.  But don't go run-n-gunning their portfolios because you *think* all of a sudden the rules have changed. 
They haven't. 
 
The greatest single post this site has ever seen.  I am not joking. This is how we add value. This is why people hire us. Not to predict the market. Not to find what will be hot next. Not to make predictions. Put a plan together and guide your clients.

Herman Munster's picture
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I must say I agree with your post.
I just don't want to give back my profits and feel I need to do somthing. My client's held up rather well last year all things considered but I'm pissed ( and take it personally that we lost money).
 
I think we actually agree. I'm not suggesting wild changes in allocations daily but more of the type moves referred to in your post.  Maybe I'm a bit shellshocked but I have to go with my feelings which tell me it's ok to take some profits here.
 
No hard feelings. You can call me Herman.
 
 

Ron 14's picture
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Herman Munster wrote:
I must say I agree with your post.
I just don't want to give back my profits and feel I need to do somthing. My client's held up rather well last year all things considered but I'm pissed ( and take it personally that we lost money).
 
I think we actually agree. I'm not suggesting wild changes in allocations daily but more of the type moves referred to in your post.  Maybe I'm a bit shellshocked but I have to go with my feelings which tell me it's ok to take some profits here.
 
No hard feelings. You can call me Herman.
 
If your only job was to always be on the plus side you would have them in CD's. The markets fluctuate, they tank, crap hits the fan and it happens every 5-10 years. If you pull out at Dow 8500, buy back in at 7000, the client is going to expect that all the time. And that is something you won't be able to repeat consistently. The sell at 8500 may be wrong, who knows ?
 
 

Sam Houston's picture
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Oh that comment.  Nothing about any technical indicators, just my opinion on which way the next 20% move would be.  I'm not wrong yet.

Ron 14's picture
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Ron 14 wrote:Herman Munster wrote:
I must say I agree with your post.
I just don't want to give back my profits and feel I need to do somthing. My client's held up rather well last year all things considered but I'm pissed ( and take it personally that we lost money).
 
I think we actually agree. I'm not suggesting wild changes in allocations daily but more of the type moves referred to in your post.  Maybe I'm a bit shellshocked but I have to go with my feelings which tell me it's ok to take some profits here.
 
No hard feelings. You can call me Herman.
 
 
 
 

If your only job was to always be on the plus side you would have them in CD's. The markets fluctuate, they tank, crap hits the fan and it happens every 5-10 years. If you pull out at Dow 8500, buy back in at 7000, the client is going to expect that all the time. And that is something you won't be able to repeat consistently. The sell at 8500 may be wrong, who knows ?
 

voltmoie's picture
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Joined: 2008-11-05

Fools rally.. the job numbers are awful.  We lost 500k jobs with the govt spending billions to create them.

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