In economics, as with many things in life, there's a long-run view, and there's what happens in the near term. Individual forecasters may try to predict GDP growth in the next year or two, and sometimes they're right, sometimes they're not. But there are market-based estimates that compile the views of legions of investors, which are incorporated in market prices. We can see this in simple display in equity prices, which are oftentimes a reflection of a company's earnings in the future. But the bond market offers a glimpse into what investors believe will happen to the entire economy in the future, and in some cases, far into the distant future. And what the yield curve tells us is that, after the election, investors see a bump to growth in the near term, given growth-friendly policies and stimulus, but that these effects fade over the long term.
Long-run economic growth…