GMO's quarterly letter
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My best argument.
You're on the same side trade that the average sheep, lemming small investor, always wrong, always get killed is period. If you're right This guy is right.[quote=Shania Twain]My best argument.
You're on the same side trade that the average sheep, lemming small investor, always wrong, always get killed is period. If you're right This guy is right. [/quote]USD vs EUR is the hedge fund trade right now, it's not the dumb money trade.
I will say the latest II report moved in a major way towards the bears. Not what I wanted to see.
The best bullish argument I've heard is that the sovereign debt crisis and impending rate hikes are going to push money out of bonds. Bonds are over-valued right now and while I think stocks are as well, bonds had an insane amount of money poured into them in 2009 (out of the $377.4 billion in net mutual fund inflows for '09, $356.6 billion of it went into bond funds). If this money leaves bond funds where does it go? Cash isn't yielding anything.There is an case to be made that this may go long utility names or other stable, large cap, dividend paying names. Will this be enough to drive the markets higher in the face of all the bad macro data? I don't know.
[/quote] I told you. faux bulls, all with qualifiers. people are MF scared to death period they will be wrong
[quote=Shania Twain]My best argument.
You're on the same side trade that the average sheep, lemming small investor, always wrong, always get killed is period. If you're right This guy is right. [/quote] Funny thing Shania.....We agree in concept, we just disagree on the feeling out there. I don't see fear and sceptisism. I see greed. I got more calls about why in the hell I got short in January than I've gotten in my entire career. Our experiences are vastly different.Quote me!!! I’ve locked in a garaunteed gain. The s&p goes through 1103 on good volume I will close out the position at a 2% gain!!!
[quote=NYCTrader][quote=Shania Twain]
western europe debt "issue" is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever. funny
ummmm hello. spain aint leh. duh
dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long
[/quote]
Shania, you want to short the USD vs EUR, be my guest. The more I research this, the more bullish on the USD I become. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1.20. ECB is backed into a corner. They have to do something about Greece. But as soon as they do that, moral hazard kicks in and suddenly Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Iraly will have their hands out expecting the same (remind anyone of a certain bank/auto bailout in 08-09?) Remember, the Euro is a relatively new currency and this is their first major test. Not sure about you, but I'm betting most investors aren't going to want to hang around and see if the folks in the EU are going to be able to figure this out. Greenback's going to be the safe haven of choice. Get long USD.
[/quote]
Shania Twain/Jennifer Nettles/Sara Evans,
I'm calling you out here.
Good call on the situation in Europe, buddy.
You were dead wrong.
I called Euro 1.20 back on Feb 7th and here we are breaching 1.20.
You still bullish?
yo yo yo
sup brother? not hiding from you
summer is here and there is fighting in the streets
been riding my beast of a motorcycle and enjoying the sunshine!
I pulled some chips off the table in april (documented in my nom de plume.........ummm sara evans.......in the other neighborhood)
we did some heavy buying friday and today (1050-60ish)
perfect
love the action. nice, quick fear fulled smash. perfect.
we will hold some dry powder for maybe a 15-20% (dont see it though)
dude. we down 12 off high and you claiming victory? PALEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
love the fear
perfect
the faux 1000 point melt was PERFECT
add MORE fear (i couldnt have scriped that any better)
i want MORE books on why stocks suck and buy and hold is dead
i want more infomercials on why fix annunities are the only answer
the oil spill make me sad. wrecking the earth. killing things
sucks
market is super low risk here. its your chance to move from the dark side
get long. now
bricks.
peace brother
john_wooden.jpg900×1061
i bet he aint a negative whinny bear.
wooden all in