GMO's quarterly letter
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wfr yikes. not my cup of tea William o neill is my daddy (i have my eye oin the ubekastan 10 yr today. could be huge. bwhahahahahahhahhaha) [/quote][quote=NYCTrader]By the way Shania, the name I went long yesterday was WFR.
Love the company. Amazing value under $12.
[quote=Magician]
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] need to hold 1071.
[/quote]1071 looks precarious.
Tomorrow could be a bloodbath when the revised jobs numbers come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html
[/quote]
Unemployment rate was a lot lower than expected.
[/quote]
Bloodbath.
[quote=NYCTrader]There’s a place in NYC called Shake Shack that makes a damn good cheeseburger.Also a fan of In & Out in LA. Moraen, I’m not always a bear. Just a bear right now. I’m actually bullish on a few individual names.
Mmmmmm, Shake Shack. My sister lives right down the street. That shat is good. [/quote]
is she hot?
[quote=NYCTrader]
Bloodbath.
[/quote]
Could not have asked more a more perfect day.
1045 intra day
bears RABID
ireland default
bwhahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahah
Thank God those bills went off in Yobeckastan
bwhahahahahahahhaha
2002 missed bubble
2008 missed bubble
2010 "they wont get me again"
Ill get out before next BUBBLE
no bubble
classic
keep your eye on Slovakia
[quote=Moraen]NYC - wasn’t quite the bloodbath your were expecting I imagine.
[/quote]
Not at all what I was expecting. That last hour rally was impressive. There was a rumor floating around that the ECB will announce a bailout of Greece over the weekend. Not sure if that’s what triggered it. Or if the consumer credit numbers released at 3:00 beating expectations (which was still pretty weak, IMO) did it. Or if the bulls have simply regained control…
This doesn’t change my macro view. Still bearish. Think fair value on the S&P is closer to 900. Will take positions in individual names as my price targets are hit on the way down. Incredibly bearish on China. Got long again on USD v EUR a few weeks ago. Gonna hold that to 130 or so.
Yeah, it looks like it was a short squeeze based on the ECB news on Greece.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHWYxn1VA98A&pos=1
Monday will be interesting if this rumor fails to materialize…
western europe debt “issue” is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever. funny
ummmm hello. spain aint leh. duh
dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long
JohnKerry.jpg1500×1875
[quote=NYCTrader] Yeah, it looks like it was a short squeeze based on the ECB news on Greece. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHWYxn1VA98A&pos=1Monday will be interesting if this rumor fails to materialize…
[/quote]
Greece gdp = 343 B
WMT’s revenues = 420 B
Sorry Shania, I’m not joining the bulls based on one hour of trading from 3:00-4:00 pm on a Friday when shorts got spooked going into the weekend because of a rumor the ECB is about to take the unprecedented step of bailing out a sovereign nation.
That isn’t the signal I’m looking for.
Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings Dividends
1960 5.34% 3.41% 58.11 3.10 1.98
1961 4.71% 2.85% 71.55 3.37 2.04
1962 5.81% 3.40% 63.1 3.67 2.15
1963 5.51% 3.13% 75.02 4.13 2.35
1964 5.62% 3.05% 84.75 4.76 2.58
1965 5.73% 3.06% 92.43 5.30 2.83
1966 6.74% 3.59% 80.33 5.41 2.88
1967 5.66% 3.09% 96.47 5.46 2.98
1968 5.51% 2.93% 103.86 5.72 3.04
1969 6.63% 3.52% 92.06 6.10 3.24
1970 5.98% 3.46% 92.15 5.51 3.19
1971 5.46% 3.10% 102.09 5.57 3.16
1972 5.23% 2.70% 118.05 6.17 3.19
1973 8.16% 3.70% 97.55 7.96 3.61
1974 13.64% 5.43% 68.56 9.35 3.72
1975 8.55% 4.14% 90.19 7.71 3.73
1976 9.07% 3.93% 107.46 9.75 4.22
1977 11.43% 5.11% 95.1 10.87 4.86
1978 12.11% 5.39% 96.11 11.64 5.18
1979 13.48% 5.53% 107.94 14.55 5.97
1980 11.04% 4.74% 135.76 14.99 6.44
1981 12.39% 5.57% 122.55 15.18 6.83
1982 9.83% 4.93% 140.64 13.82 6.93
1983 8.06% 4.32% 164.93 13.29 7.12
1984 10.07% 4.68% 167.24 16.84 7.83
1985 7.42% 3.88% 211.28 15.68 8.20
1986 5.96% 3.38% 242.17 14.43 8.19
1987 6.49% 3.71% 247.08 16.04 9.17
1988 8.69% 3.68% 277.72 24.12 10.22
1989 6.88% 3.32% 353.4 24.32 11.73
1990 6.86% 3.74% 330.22 22.65 12.35
1991 4.63% 3.11% 417.09 19.30 12.97
1992 4.79% 2.90% 435.71 20.87 12.64
1993 5.77% 2.72% 466.45 26.90 12.69
1994 6.91% 2.91% 459.27 31.75 13.36
1995 6.12% 2.30% 615.93 37.70 14.17
1996 5.49% 2.01% 740.74 40.63 14.89
1997 4.54% 1.60% 970.43 44.09 15.52
1998 3.60% 1.32% 1229.23 44.27 16.20
1999 3.52% 1.14% 1469.25 51.68 16.71
2000 4.25% 1.23% 1320.28 56.13 16.27
2001 3.38% 1.37% 1148.09 38.85 15.74
2002 5.23% 1.83% 879.82 46.04 16.08
2003 4.92% 1.61% 1111.91 54.69 17.88
2004 5.58% 1.60% 1211.92 67.68 19.407
2005 6.12% 1.79% 1248.29 76.45 22.38
2006 6.18% 1.77% 1418.3 87.72 25.05
2007 5.62% 1.89% 1468.36 82.54 27.73
2008 7.24% 3.11% 903.25 65.39 28.05
2009 5.35% 2.00% 1115.1 59.65 22.31
2010 SPX earnings $80 ish!!!
subprime? back window
new normal this Billy boy
stocks cheap
Thanks ML Gone[quote=suspended]good time to buy
Looks like an avatar you have used anyway[/quote]
Hope you bought!
In this environment, i would have expected to see a selloff on a Friday afternoon with market participants not wanting to be LONG over the weekend. Not the other way around. Tells me there is good underlying strenght here.
Does anyone really expect that Greece or any other PIG will default on their debt? C'mon, the world isnt going to let that happen. EU will step in and if necessary, other countries, World Bank, whatever. We've already seen that the powers that be will do what they have to do. Corporate balance sheets are stronger than ever, companies are lean as they can be in costs structure, dividends are rising again, jobs which are a lagging indicator anyway, came in better than expected yesterday. Q4 earnings are beating all over the place. Everyone is buying technology, (the products, not just the stocks). Capital flows to innovation, and the U.S. innovates. The emerging economies story is old, maybe a little long in tooth, but still true and intact longer term http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8 Short term cautious? maybe, but i have a feeling not. I'm a bull looking out past my nose. No ArmeggedonWon’t disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
I think any client who is in their 40's early 50"s and has the ability to add on dips, can ignore whats going on right now. Others do need to be more careful.[quote=Sportsfreakbob] Won’t disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
agreed. But I know 12 months from now the market will be higher. Time Frame boyz
08-09 scared people BIG TIME.
perfect trap
late 08 death sell off
then a calm
then feb mar 09 BLOODBATH
SO MANY got out
so many with cash at 0% now
1070 break was no so hot.
bet it holds
friday’s action says it all
money LOOKING for a home
new highs
intra day friday (1044?) is the low (like july 7)
repeat:
GREECE gdp 342 B
WMT’s revenues 420 B
F greece. Its post tramatic bear market syndrome
EVERYONE LOOKING FOR NEXT SHOE TOO FALL.
its comical
watching CNBC
Showing the GD Latvia bond auction
aint gonna happen
too easy. too many would be right
[quote=suspended]
Hope you bought!
[/quote]
mel,
your a bull.
come clean brother.
your welcome on bull money train
[quote=Shania Twain]western europe debt “issue” is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever. funny
ummmm hello. spain aint leh. duh
dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long
[/quote]
Shania, you want to short the USD vs EUR, be my guest. The more I research this, the more bullish on the USD I become. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 1.20. ECB is backed into a corner. They have to do something about Greece. But as soon as they do that, moral hazard kicks in and suddenly Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Iraly will have their hands out expecting the same (remind anyone of a certain bank/auto bailout in 08-09?) Remember, the Euro is a relatively new currency and this is their first major test. Not sure about you, but I’m betting most investors aren’t going to want to hang around and see if the folks in the EU are going to be able to figure this out. Greenback’s going to be the safe haven of choice. Get long USD.