Correction
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Ok. Well I am going to sell everything and hide under my desk. PM me when I should come out and buy everything back.[quote=Moraen] [quote=NYCTrader]Mel is a moron, but this correction is for real boys. I hope you’re protecting your clients. There will be little patience for watching portfolios blow-up again. [/quote]
Why is it that people think a correction is “portfolios blowing up”?
A correction is just that - a correction.
This is why I like individual equities. On days when the markets are down, most of our portfolios are up. On days when the markets are up, all of our portfolios are up.
[/quote]
If you are 100% long equities (like some people on this forum), you will blow up portfolios. It happened in '08 and it will happen again.
[quote=DOWN]Is my machine broken or is the S & P back to Sept levels[/quote]
Your machine is broken. The peak in September was 1071. The low was 994. The average was 1042.
Morean - What is the point of having clients if you can accurately value stocks and earn 78% returns ? Screw the hassles and trade it up. Instead of giving advice you can just give your current clients a percentage return on their capital, say 10-20% above a certain benchmark and keep much more for yourself.
[quote=Ron 14]
Morean - What is the point of having clients if you can accurately value stocks and earn 78% returns ? Screw the hassles and trade it up. Instead of giving advice you can just give your current clients a percentage return on their capital, say 10-20% above a certain benchmark and keep much more for yourself.
[/quote]I’ve looked into it. Talk about hassles. What I’m trying to do is build enough credibility to pass off all of my clients to advisors, and basically run a fund or SMA. It’s a slow process. I mean, I don’t really have the connections to actually do anything terribly significant. I talked to a guy who runs an SMA out in Ohio and he of course warns me against it saying it is to hard to get set up and that I need at least five years of returns (of course he’s trying to sell me his platform) and also that anything I did at Jones can’t count.
I’ve backtested my theories and models and they work, but backtesting is crap.
If you know anybody who I should talk to, let me know.
If you know of a better way, let me know. I stay in touch with Dan Strachman who has advised hedge funds over the years and has pretty much told me that I’m not where I need to be.
Also, I am not accurate all of the time. Sometimes financial models don’t work. But to give you an example. Right now one portfolio (each one has an average of 25 stock normally) has 15 positions. 12 have a 20% or greater return this year. 3 have 300% or more. 2 are negative, the largest one being 12%. 15% of the portfolio is in cash.
Really, as long as I don’t have to deal with clients, I’m good. In addition, I do trade for my own account, but most of the money I have is qualified. Doesn’t really do me much good when I’m in my early twenties.
Ok. Well I am going to sell everything and hide under my desk. PM me when I should come out and buy everything back. [/quote][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Moraen] [quote=NYCTrader]Mel is a moron, but this correction is for real boys. I hope you’re protecting your clients. There will be little patience for watching portfolios blow-up again. [/quote]
Why is it that people think a correction is “portfolios blowing up”?
A correction is just that - a correction.
This is why I like individual equities. On days when the markets are down, most of our portfolios are up. On days when the markets are up, all of our portfolios are up.
[/quote]
If you are 100% long equities (like some people on this forum), you will blow up portfolios. It happened in '08 and it will happen again.
That's not what I'm saying at all. Be prudent. Be diversified. Don't be a stock cowboy. That's not why clients hire us. The decision here isn't 100% long equities or 100% cash. There is nuance, a middle ground. You should be hedged. You should be in bonds. You should have alternative investments. Be intelligent.
But frankly, at the end of the day, I don't really care what you do. Stay long. Dismiss the bears. Buy on the dips. Get leveraged. Buy ultra bullish etfs. Buy on margin. It's not my call.
My point is, whatever your view on the markets, you should have an opinion and be able to articulate it clearly to your clients. If you don't see risk in the current environment and haven't hedged, fine. But if things continue to turn south, and you haven't prepared your clients for a potential correction or protected them from the downside risk, don't be surprised if your clients lose confidence in you and leave.
Morean - that all makes sense. I didn’t know that was your ultimate goal. I am glad that it is because if you have a system in place you will make real money, not advisor money.
I have a few friends who I traded with on the exchange floor and they went that route in 05/06 and although their systems were producing, raising the capital burnt them out. They were trying to do both and it killed them. They went to work at larger firms.[quote=Moraen] [quote=Ron 14]
Morean - What is the point of having clients if you can accurately value stocks and earn 78% returns ? Screw the hassles and trade it up. Instead of giving advice you can just give your current clients a percentage return on their capital, say 10-20% above a certain benchmark and keep much more for yourself.
[/quote]I've looked into it. Talk about hassles. What I'm trying to do is build enough credibility to pass off all of my clients to advisors, and basically run a fund or SMA. It's a slow process. I mean, I don't really have the connections to actually do anything terribly significant. I talked to a guy who runs an SMA out in Ohio and he of course warns me against it saying it is to hard to get set up and that I need at least five years of returns (of course he's trying to sell me his platform) and also that anything I did at Jones can't count.
I've backtested my theories and models and they work, but backtesting is crap.
If you know anybody who I should talk to, let me know.
If you know of a better way, let me know. I stay in touch with Dan Strachman who has advised hedge funds over the years and has pretty much told me that I'm not where I need to be.
Also, I am not accurate all of the time. Sometimes financial models don't work. But to give you an example. Right now one portfolio (each one has an average of 25 stock normally) has 15 positions. 12 have a 20% or greater return this year. 3 have 300% or more. 2 are negative, the largest one being 12%. 15% of the portfolio is in cash.
Really, as long as I don't have to deal with clients, I'm good. In addition, I do trade for my own account, but most of the money I have is qualified. Doesn't really do me much good when I'm in my early twenties.
QUOTE] Morean......Are you using DOG YEARS again???????????????
[quote=Moraen] [quote=Ron 14]
Morean - What is the point of having clients if you can accurately value stocks and earn 78% returns ? Screw the hassles and trade it up. Instead of giving advice you can just give your current clients a percentage return on their capital, say 10-20% above a certain benchmark and keep much more for yourself.
[/quote]I've looked into it. Talk about hassles. What I'm trying to do is build enough credibility to pass off all of my clients to advisors, and basically run a fund or SMA. It's a slow process. I mean, I don't really have the connections to actually do anything terribly significant. I talked to a guy who runs an SMA out in Ohio and he of course warns me against it saying it is to hard to get set up and that I need at least five years of returns (of course he's trying to sell me his platform) and also that anything I did at Jones can't count.
I've backtested my theories and models and they work, but backtesting is crap.
If you know anybody who I should talk to, let me know.
If you know of a better way, let me know. I stay in touch with Dan Strachman who has advised hedge funds over the years and has pretty much told me that I'm not where I need to be.
Also, I am not accurate all of the time. Sometimes financial models don't work. But to give you an example. Right now one portfolio (each one has an average of 25 stock normally) has 15 positions. 12 have a 20% or greater return this year. 3 have 300% or more. 2 are negative, the largest one being 12%. 15% of the portfolio is in cash.
Really, as long as I don't have to deal with clients, I'm good. In addition, I do trade for my own account, but most of the money I have is qualified. Doesn't really do me much good when I'm in my early twenties.
[/quote] I think I know someone who you could talk to about going SMA. The firm I work for had direct clients, and once they got into SMAs the AUM exploded. I'm interested in knowing your actual strategies to see if it can be transferred over to SMA. You will face a lot more challenges, and while you don't "really" have to deal with clients anymore (which you still do, just not as personal), you will have to deal with Financial Advisors and Due Dil teams (which can be much worse).
[quote=mlgone]WHO TOOK MY AVATAR?
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR[/quote] Was there a complaint about Dancing Ladies? I'll show them not to do this to us with my new "Lady gives Horse a BJ" avatar![quote=Wet_Blanket][quote=Moraen] [quote=Ron 14]
Morean - What is the point of having clients if you can accurately value stocks and earn 78% returns ? Screw the hassles and trade it up. Instead of giving advice you can just give your current clients a percentage return on their capital, say 10-20% above a certain benchmark and keep much more for yourself.
[/quote]I've looked into it. Talk about hassles. What I'm trying to do is build enough credibility to pass off all of my clients to advisors, and basically run a fund or SMA. It's a slow process. I mean, I don't really have the connections to actually do anything terribly significant. I talked to a guy who runs an SMA out in Ohio and he of course warns me against it saying it is to hard to get set up and that I need at least five years of returns (of course he's trying to sell me his platform) and also that anything I did at Jones can't count.
I've backtested my theories and models and they work, but backtesting is crap.
If you know anybody who I should talk to, let me know.
If you know of a better way, let me know. I stay in touch with Dan Strachman who has advised hedge funds over the years and has pretty much told me that I'm not where I need to be.
Also, I am not accurate all of the time. Sometimes financial models don't work. But to give you an example. Right now one portfolio (each one has an average of 25 stock normally) has 15 positions. 12 have a 20% or greater return this year. 3 have 300% or more. 2 are negative, the largest one being 12%. 15% of the portfolio is in cash.
Really, as long as I don't have to deal with clients, I'm good. In addition, I do trade for my own account, but most of the money I have is qualified. Doesn't really do me much good when I'm in my early twenties.
[/quote] I think I know someone who you could talk to about going SMA. The firm I work for had direct clients, and once they got into SMAs the AUM exploded. I'm interested in knowing your actual strategies to see if it can be transferred over to SMA. You will face a lot more challenges, and while you don't "really" have to deal with clients anymore (which you still do, just not as personal), you will have to deal with Financial Advisors and Due Dil teams (which can be much worse).[/quote]
How specific do you need me to be? Do you need my formulas, general theory or somewhere in between?
I would rather deal with Due Dilly people and FA's (who understand the business). I think the key is to be consistent in your message. Don't sell it for what it isn't.
Just what you think the product capacity would be. What mkt cap stock do you buy? Personally, Gaddock's portfolios won't work in SMA. Its one thing to have a good product and know how to sell it, but when you get into the SMA business, there is a whole operational side that can be a nightmare and is night and day compared to direct business.
How specific do you need me to be? Do you need my formulas, general theory or somewhere in between?
I would rather deal with Due Dilly people and FA’s (who understand the business). I think the key is to be consistent in your message. Don’t sell it for what it isn’t.
[quote=Moraen] By the way - I love how we hijacked mel’s thread.
[/quote]
I know right? He has my vote though for the 2010 (un)Registered Tool award
He was a unanimous 2009 winner, his biggest accomplishment.[quote=Moraen] By the way - I love how we hijacked mel’s thread.
[/quote]
I know right? He has my vote though for the 2010 (un)Registered Tool award
Unfortunately…down,mel,nyctrader,or whoever his new character is…will be correct. This time it does look like a fall back to the lows. It’s not easy to say that, but most of the leaders have been desimated and that my friends is EXTREMELY bad.
[quote=BigKahuna]Unfortunately…down,mel,nyctrader,or whoever his new character is…will be correct. This time it does look like a fall back to the lows. It’s not easy to say that, but most of the leaders have been desimated and that my friends is EXTREMELY bad.[/quote]
Please, just because I’m bearish doesn’t mean I’m one of Mel’s many doppelgangers. I realize there aren’t many bears on this forum, but look back at some of my posts. I actually know how to compose a coherent sentence.