The BULL everyone hates
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Dubai sends markets into turmoil
By Jennifer Hughes and David Oakley in London and Simeon,Kerr in Dubai
Published: November 27 2009 02:00 | Last updated: November 27 2009 02:00
turmoil…funny.
turmoil this.
we turmoiling to new highs wooooooooooooooo whoooooooooooooo
yeah but I heard it’s only topless there
Yeh, you're right. I saw your wife there
fat-stripper-pole.jpg500×666 52.7 KB
Wow funny you mention my wife. your not gonna believe this, but I have a picture here on my phone of my wife AND my college girl friend TOGETHER. can u believe it>?
they are still good friends even through they had that battle of trying to get me!!
we all three still joke about it. although its a bit sad. My ex-girl friend has not found anyone yet.
acm07_pressroom_faithshania_v_p.jpg480×695
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.
Sentiment Survey
Bullish 31.7%
AAII’s members were asked to
finish this sentence:
I feel that the direction of the stock market over the next 6 months will be:
Bearish, Neutral, or Bullish.
Neutral 16.7%
Bearish 51.7%
Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%
On Friday, many of the in-store deals were also
available online, causing some Web sites to overload as shoppers tried
to get deals without waiting in long, cold lines.
U.S. consumer spending and home sales rose more than expected in
October, while new claims for jobless benefits fell sharply last week,
suggesting the economic recovery was gaining traction.
More than a year after the economy’s collapse
began rattling shoppers, industry observers said Friday’s shopping
sprees offered a strong start to the holiday season.
U.S. consumer confidence edged higher in November after an unexpected
drop in October, with less consumers expressing doubt about the a
worsening jobs market, according to a report released on Tuesday.
Bookmark this thread. Dow will hit 11,000 by the end of the year.
YEAH! PARTY IN THE USA!!!
[quote=howboutshoeshine]
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=10 width=“100%” =/s/hmintroBG2.gif>
<FONT =hmIntroTxt2>AAII is a nonprofit organization that arms individual investors with the education and tools they need to build wealth. From stock investing to financial planning and retirement funding, AAII covers all your needs.
this site is a JOKE!!! Funny post. If you want to know sentiment look around, boy genius. Also, a poll of professionals is more telling or YOU could just turn on CNBC or bloomberg. The most you will here there is “correction” “double dip” “V shaped recovery” “sqare root shaped recovery” NOTHING about taking out lows. AGAIN, this is a ridiculous discussion. This bull within a secular bear is LOVED.[/quote]
actually, the “average joe” is EXACTLY what you want for the paradox of evaluating phychlology and the markets.
The “professionals” is investors intelligence which is neutral to bearish.
And now i am going to agree with you on one thing.
You ARE correct on one thing.
A retest or violation of march low (666) is NOT on ANYONES radar.
That does bother me a tiny bit. Even the purist of techs (louise yamada types) call it THE bottom
(and she is much more in your bear camp thinking we are now in 1937)
she thinks we are still in teeth of secular bear beginning in 2000.
You have a valid point that other nasty bears (74,29 etc) had monster rallys that proved to be huge bear traps (74 came back to even).
BTW AAII went to 79% bearish on the EXACT bottom (666). This was the worst (best) reading EVER.
that reading (plus VIX at 80) gave me the courage to sell govies for balanced accounts and do some other aggressive things that turned out to be huge.
predicting the market is obviously not an exact science but, if you dismiss extreme sentiment indicators as not valuable, your just flat wrong
look at aaii, investors intel, VIX etc and plot it behind the SPX.
the extremes are probably THE single most accurate indicator of major buy and sell points.
You are VERY correct about extremes.
At 74.2, the percentage of stock market bulls relative to the total of committed advisors is now the highest percentage since the October 2007 all-time high (76.0), ( investor intelligence) ISE Sentiment Index has risen to 149.2, its most extreme since Primary wave 2 (circle) started in March. In fact, the only more extreme level since the October 2007 all-time market peak was on December 30 of last year when the 10-day average spiked to 154.83. That was just 4 market days before the January 6 high, which was the top of wave (4).US dollar has been 3% bullish since September 15th The Daily Sentiment Index of gold traders has been above 90 percent bulls for 17 straight days, challenging the previous record streak of 20 days from November 5 to December 6, 2004, which resulted in the December 2004 high that remained intact for 9 months. For all of these reasons, among the fact that it appears we are in a rapid decention, I believe this is a DEPRESSION not recession. Things are not better they are worse. The SPIN is out of control and people are STARTING to get pissed. I see things for what they are and it is B.A.D. out there. The market will suffer the consequences of the "change of world powers" I will not be there to see it happen, whenever it happens.
[quote=howboutshoeshine] You are VERY correct about extremes.
At 74.2, the percentage of stock market bulls relative to the total of committed advisors is now the highest percentage since the October 2007 all-time high (76.0), ( investor intelligence)
ISE Sentiment Index has risen to 149.2, its most extreme since Primary wave 2 (circle) started in March. In fact, the only more extreme level since the October 2007 all-time market peak was on December 30 of last year when the 10-day average spiked to 154.83. That was just 4 market days before the January 6 high, which was the top of wave (4).
US dollar has been 3% bullish since September 15th
The Daily Sentiment Index of gold traders has been above 90 percent bulls for 17 straight days, challenging the previous record streak of 20 days from November 5 to December 6, 2004, which resulted in the December 2004 high that remained intact for 9 months.
For all of these reasons, among the fact that it appears we are in a rapid decention, I believe this is a DEPRESSION not recession. Things are not better they are worse. The SPIN is out of control and people are STARTING to get pissed. I see things for what they are and it is B.A.D. out there. The market will suffer the consequences of the “change of world powers” I will not be there to see it happen, whenever it happens.[/quote]
Have fun with that DEPRESSION. This is not even close to a depression.
The two possible agreed upon definition of depressions are a sustained decline of 10% in GDP, or at least two years of a recession. Considering that with a positive GDP number, the clock has restarted, then we’re not even close. If next quarter has a positive GDP number, your depression thesis is shot.
Magician,
They won't know it's a depression until after the fact. I look at the world around me my friend and then make an educated guess ( hypothesis ) and then if I'm correct it is a fact. By the way .6% of GDP is always govt. programs although last quarter you had an additional 1.6% due to "special programs" How good do those numbers look now? I don't listen to what I'm told, I make my OWN opinions.The Decade of Emerging Markets
Out of 73 country equity indices that we track (that go back to the start of 2000),
just 17 are down during the current decade (starting 1/1/2000). Unfortunately, the US and five of the other G-7 countries are included in the
group of 17 losers.
The Ukraine has been the best performing country this decade with a gain of 1,445%.
Russia
has been the best performing BRIC country with a gain of 711%.
Canada has been the best performing G7 country,
while Japan has been the worst.
From a stock market standpoint, we saw emerging markets emerge in a big
way this decade, as developed nations stumbled pretty much across the board.
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=howboutshoeshine]
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=10 width=“100%” =/s/hmintroBG2.gif>
<FONT =hmIntroTxt2>AAII is a nonprofit organization that arms individual investors with the education and tools they need to build wealth. From stock investing to financial planning and retirement funding, AAII covers all your needs.
this site is a JOKE!!! Funny post. If you want to know sentiment look around, boy genius. Also, a poll of professionals is more telling or YOU could just turn on CNBC or bloomberg. The most you will here there is “correction” “double dip” “V shaped recovery” “sqare root shaped recovery” NOTHING about taking out lows. AGAIN, this is a ridiculous discussion. This bull within a secular bear is LOVED.[/quote]
actually, the “average joe” is EXACTLY what you want for the paradox of evaluating phychlology and the markets.
The “professionals” is investors intelligence which is neutral to bearish.
And now i am going to agree with you on one thing.
You ARE correct on one thing.
A retest or violation of march low (666) is NOT on ANYONES radar.
That does bother me a tiny bit. Even the purist of techs (louise yamada types) call it THE bottom
(and she is much more in your bear camp thinking we are now in 1937)
she thinks we are still in teeth of secular bear beginning in 2000.
You have a valid point that other nasty bears (74,29 etc) had monster rallys that proved to be huge bear traps (74 came back to even).
BTW AAII went to 79% bearish on the EXACT bottom (666). This was the worst (best) reading EVER.
that reading (plus VIX at 80) gave me the courage to sell govies for balanced accounts and do some other aggressive things that turned out to be huge.
predicting the market is obviously not an exact science but, if you dismiss extreme sentiment indicators as not valuable, your just flat wrong
look at aaii, investors intel, VIX etc and plot it behind the SPX.
the extremes are probably THE single most accurate indicator of major buy and sell points.[/quote]
Shania, I agree with your reasoning here on extreme sentiment. Check out the most recent investor intelligence survey numbers:
Date Published
Percent Bullish
Percent Bearish
<tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 12/02/09 </td> <td align="center"> 50 </td> <td align="center"> 16.7 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 11/25/09 </td> <td align="center"> 50.6 </td> <td align="center"> 17.6 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 11/18/09 </td> <td align="center"> 46.1 </td> <td align="center"> 21.3 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 11/11/09 </td> <td align="center"> 44.4 </td> <td align="center"> 26.7 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 11/04/09 </td> <td align="center"> 48.3 </td> <td align="center"> 24.7 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 10/28/09 </td> <td align="center"> 48.3 </td> <td align="center"> 22.5 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 10/21/09 </td> <td align="center"> 49.5 </td> <td align="center"> 23.1 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 10/14/09 </td> <td align="center"> 47.2 </td> <td align="center"> 26.4 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 10/07/09 </td> <td align="center"> 48.9 </td> <td align="center"> 24.4 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 09/30/09 </td> <td align="center"> 50.6 </td> <td align="center"> 23.6 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 09/23/09 </td> <td align="center"> 46.7 </td> <td align="center"> 24.4 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 09/16/09 </td> <td align="center"> 47.8 </td> <td align="center"> 24.4 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 09/09/09 </td> <td align="center"> 48.3 </td> <td align="center"> 23.6 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 09/02/09 </td> <td align="center"> 50.6 </td> <td align="center"> 24.1 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 08/26/09 </td> <td align="center"> 51.6 </td> <td align="center"> 19.8 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 08/19/09 </td> <td align="center"> 48.3 </td> <td align="center"> 23.1 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 08/12/09 </td> <td align="center"> 49.4 </td> <td align="center"> 21.3 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 08/05/09 </td> <td align="center"> 47.2 </td> <td align="center"> 25.8 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb239, 239, 239 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 07/29/09 </td> <td align="center"> 42.2 </td> <td align="center"> 31.1 </td> </tr> <tr style=": rgb255, 255, 255 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz--clip: -moz-initial; -moz--origin: -moz-initial; -moz--inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center"> 07/22/09 </td> <td align="center"> 36.7 </td> <td align="center"> 35.6
Now look at a chart of that tracks bullish and bearish sentiment over the last 4 years:
The last time we saw bearish sentiment this low was in July 2007, when the S&P was trading in the 1550 range, shortly before it hit it’s all time high.
I’m not normally a technical charts guy (I’m more interested in fundamentals), but your argument that this rally has not been embraced by the majority of market participants is dead wrong.
The bull side is very crowded trade right now.
Read the advisors comments that investors intel gives you.
reluctant bulls
II tops usually have 60 plus % bulls. raging bulls.
crowded bull trade? are you serious?
trim tabs NET outflows of equity fund after a 65% run?
are you kidding me?
has NEVER happened before
retail guy is NOT in this market-period.
The II 16 bear is real.
Im not buying it
look at july sell off
less the 10% look at II number
21 to 40!!! quickly
no one believes this rally
[quote=Shania Twain]Read the advisors comments that investors intel gives you.
reluctant bulls
II tops usually have 60 plus % bulls. raging bulls.
crowded bull trade? are you serious?
trim tabs NET outflows of equity fund after a 65% run?
are you kidding me?
has NEVER happened before
retail guy is NOT in this market-period.
The II 16 bear is real.
Im not buying it
look at july sell off
less the 10% look at II number
21 to 40!!! quickly
no one believes this rally
[/quote]
Look at the BB ratio. It’s 2.994!!! That’s three times as many bulls as bears. And guess what, it hasn’t been this high since… Oct 2007 when the S&P hit its all time high.
There is nothing to “buy”. The market has gone extremely bullish.
I’m holding cash, puts, a handful of high quality stock names (about 20%) and some muni bonds. Running a couple currency plays too. Think we’re going to see this USD carry trade unwind pretty soon. Market close today was telling of the confidence in tomorrow’s employment numbers. Do you have any hedges on? I’m not trying to be a d***, but if this thing goes south, it’ll happen in a hurry.
From The Big Picture:
Albert Edwards of Société Générale makes the simple contrarian arguement that the low number of equity bears is a bad sign for equities:
“The current extremely low number of equity bears (the lowest since the market top of 2007 – see chart below), the likelihood is that the next leg of the long-term structural valuation bear market is closer than people might realise.”
Here is Edward’s chart:
>
click for larger graphic
Source: Datastream, SG Cross Asset Research
1280ish year end/mid jan.
ewz,pot,gfa,osh,abv,fdx,isrg,aapl etc
buy strength. sell weakness
IBD, cabot,carter
so many good charts
quit over thinking it. going higher