BEARS=Back to your spider holes. new highs
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[quote=mlgone]these senators are embarassing. they just sit up there and talk, talk and more talk without understanding sh*T[/quote] I don’t think Bobby Rush can even form complete sentences…and you guys think Sarah Palin is stupid.
[quote=mlgone]these senators are embarassing. they just sit up there and talk, talk and more talk without understanding sh*T[/quote] I don’t think Bobby Rush can even form complete sentences…and you guys think Sarah Palin is stupid.
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Moraen]I really should be working on work stuff, but I just spent about 20 minutes doing this:
Consumer confidence index statistics:
From 1978 to 2010, the consumer confidence index has fallen from January to February 26 out of 33 times. Which is 78.78%.
Of those 26 times, the drop has been greater than 5% exactly 24 times, or about 90% of the times it dropped.
Of the 7 times where January was the month with lower consumer confidence, 4 were less than 1% lower than February. The remaining three were the years from 1997-1999.
[/quote]
Interesting stuff Moraen. Thanks for the posting this.
[/quote]
I’m a big fan of putting things into perspective. You see news
(whether positive or negative) and then try to drill down to see what
the significance is.
Moraen, FYI... I pulled this from The Big Picture blog...
Consumer Confidence fell 10 points last month.
That is a relatively rare event, occurring only 21 times in the 400 months or so the survey began its monthly format in 1977.
James Bianco notes that “Almost every such 10-point drop can be attributed to an unusual market-moving event.”
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
>
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
bull. look at those date. some GREAT buy points 11/87 monster rally 90 just before 1st iraq war monster rally 91-92 huge run 2/03 major bottom 10-02 good buy point 3/09 best buy in 70 years man thanks NYC this gets me evn more bullish (east coast blizzard? wtf) I think this should be a GREAT indicator for major BUY points. im going my memory. pull up an chart of spx and screw "next month" (which is stupid.) you buy after this event you beating buy and hold BIG timeYeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!!
[quote=Ron 14]Yeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!![/quote]
Dude, it’s data. Do whatever you want with it.
[quote=Shania Twain]
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
bull. look at those date. some GREAT buy points 11/87 monster rally 90 just before 1st iraq war monster rally 91-92 huge run 2/03 major bottom 10-02 good buy point 3/09 best buy in 70 years man thanks NYC this gets me evn more bullish (east coast blizzard? wtf) I think this should be a GREAT indicator for major BUY points. im going my memory. pull up an chart of spx and screw "next month" (which is stupid.) you buy after this event you beating buy and hold BIG time [/quote]Shania, I figured you'd have that reaction. I don't think this data isn't terribly useful beyond being kind of interesting to Moraen (based on his post yesterday). I have no idea how Bianco can attribute a big drop in consumer confidence to an east coast blizzard (twice!). I was never really crazy about his research when he was at UBS.
I almost got trapped in NYC during that blizzard. After I changed my train to an earlier Acela, the first thing that crossed my mind was “I better sell all my sh*t!”
[quote=NYCTrader]
Moraen, FYI… I pulled this from The Big Picture blog…
Consumer Confidence fell 10 points last month.
That is a relatively rare event, occurring only 21 times in the 400 months or so the survey began its monthly format in 1977.
James Bianco notes that “Almost every such 10-point drop can be attributed to an unusual market-moving event.”
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
>
[/quote]
It was interesting, I did an overlay of the S&P for the times going back to 78. This data that you put up is cherry-picked (not your fault), but when you put the other years into it, it’s kind of a wash. I meant to post this yesterday, but I figured since it was inconclusive, really nothing new.
I tried to follow the link to Bianco Research, but apparently you have to be a member. It bothers me that it doesn’t have ALL of the data in it.
But it is interesting, nonetheless. Also, what is interesting, is that if you are using natural disasters as market moving events, (East coast blizzard, Katrina, East Coast Blizzard), there is a net gain of 5.9%.
Once again though, correlation does equal causation. In either case.
I will and just did. Used it to clean up after my post lunch dump.[quote=Ron 14]Yeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!![/quote]
Dude, it’s data. Do whatever you want with it.
I will and just did. Used it to clean up after my post lunch dump. [/quote][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Ron 14]Yeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!![/quote]
Dude, it’s data. Do whatever you want with it.
Did you sh*t all over your desk? Or do you normally wipe your ass with consumer confidence data?
I did crap my pants. When I saw that data and realized I now had to move the money for 150 households I lost control of all of my bowels. I then had nothing to use besides that data to wipe with.
[quote=Ron 14]
I did crap my pants. When I saw that data and realized I now had to move the money for 150 households I lost control of all of my bowels. I then had nothing to use besides that data to wipe with.
[/quote]Here’s a tip. You may want to invest in some of these for the next time someone posts innocuous consumer confidence data on an anonymous chat board.
I don't have time to go out and buy any. I have to call everyone and tell them we are selling their holdings.
[quote=Ron 14]
I don’t have time to go out and buy any. I have to call everyone and tell them we are selling their holdings.
[/quote]Definitely call them. Showing up at their office or home reeking of sh*t isn’t good for business.
[quote=Shania Twain]nyc
Today was a monster bullish day.
we are going higher from here [/quote]
Very strong afternoon performance by the bulls. Still not sure what prompted it. Curious to see what your boy Art Cashin has to say about it in his morning notes.