Actually NYC, politics isn’t about supply and demand.  Politics is about influence, salience and position.  The Chinese government ultimately cares about staying in power.  Not about pissing off the U.S.  While I don’t really have the time or inclination to do the analysis of whether it is more important for China to keep buying our debt or keep us from seeing the Dalai Lama, the evidence points to this being a bluff.

[quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader]

Actually NYC, politics isn’t about supply and demand.  Politics is about influence, salience and position.  The Chinese government ultimately cares about staying in power.  Not about pissing off the U.S.  While I don’t really have the time or inclination to do the analysis of whether it is more important for China to keep buying our debt or keep us from seeing the Dalai Lama, the evidence points to this being a bluff.

[quote=Moraen]Actually NYC, politics isn’t about supply and demand.  Politics is about influence, salience and position.  The Chinese government ultimately cares about staying in power.  Not about pissing off the U.S.  While I don’t really have the time or inclination to do the analysis of whether it is more important for China to keep buying our debt or keep us from seeing the Dalai Lama, the evidence points to this being a bluff.
[/quote]

No, Moraen, I meant treasury supply, not politics.   US is issuing record amounts of paper in 2010.  In order to keep our debt service at reasonable levels, we need strong demand.  China has been one of the more dependable buyers in recent years.  Of course, they aren’t going to dump all their treasuries, but by selling part of their position and threatening to not buy as much in the future, they are turning the screws on us and trying to influence our foreign and domestic policy.  I agree, it’s probably a bluff, but it’s debatable as to whether or not the US has the upper hand here.

[quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader]

ben raises freakin rates…

NYC - did you say that 1100 was the number?  That if the S&P made it to that number that the bulls would run?  I can’t find the post.  

[quote=Moraen]NYC - did you say that 1100 was the number?  That if the S&P made it to that number that the bulls would run?  I can’t find the post.  
[/quote]

I don’t think I ever made an upside call.  The bulls can certainly continue to run here.  I don’t have an upside target number on the S&P where I throw in the towel and join the bulls, if that’s what you’re asking.

My view is that equity markets are over valued right now.  The multiples we’re seeing cannot be sustained with unemployment and consumer spending where they are.  I think fair value on the S&P is 900.  I would load up into equities if we breached that number (regardless of macro-economic conditions, because, believe it or not, I believe stocks outperform in the long run, but like Buffett, I will only put my capital at risk when I believe I’m getting excellent value for my investment).  I’m buying selectively right now, only when I see individual names hit my conservative price targets.  I plan on holding these names for the next 3 years minimum.

Look at buffets BNI buy



look how big this was. even for him. largest buy EVER



16 billion in mf cash, 21 million freakin shares of brook



so



…average retard peanut investor HATES stocks.

scared to death.

idiot no load flipper is in cash



and warren makes a monster bet on stocks?



the retards are going to be right?



“Be greedy when others are fearful” warren b

[quote=NYCTrader]

[quote=Moraen]NYC - did you say that 1100 was the number?  That if the S&P made it to that number that the bulls would run?  I can’t find the post.  
[/quote]

I don’t think I ever made an upside call.  The bulls can certainly continue to run here.  I don’t have an upside target number on the S&P where I throw in the towel and join the bulls, if that’s what you’re asking.

My view is that equity markets are over valued right now.  The multiples we’re seeing cannot be sustained with unemployment and consumer spending where they are.  I think fair value on the S&P is 900.  I would load up into equities if we breached that number (regardless of macro-economic conditions, because, believe it or not, I believe stocks outperform in the long run, but like Buffett, I will only put my capital at risk when I believe I’m getting excellent value for my investment).  I’m buying selectively right now, only when I see individual names hit my conservative price targets.  I plan on holding these names for the next 3 years minimum.
[/quote]

You are right.  It was shoe.  He said 1103 on good volume and the bulls will run.

is shoe mel?



is mel gone?

[quote=Shania Twain] Look at buffets BNI buy



look how big this was. even for him. largest buy EVER



16 billion in mf cash, 21 million freakin shares of brook



so



…average retard peanut investor HATES stocks.

scared to death.

idiot no load flipper is in cash



and warren makes a monster bet on stocks?



the retards are going to be right?



“Be greedy when others are fearful” warren b

[/quote]

Shania, I don’t know if your bullish rants are losing their punch or if I just don’t have the energy today… 

[quote=NYCTrader]





[quote=Shania Twain] Shania, I don’t know if your bullish rants are losing their punch or if I just don’t have the energy today…



[/quote]



haha.



I think you’re breaking down.   

Ready to come over to the right side of tracks.



Im like d***s water boarding…

[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]





[quote=Shania Twain] Shania, I don’t know if your bullish rants are losing their punch or if I just don’t have the energy today… 



[/quote]



haha.



I think you’re breaking down.   

Ready to come over to the right side of tracks.



Im like d***s water boarding…[/quote]

Not after today’s consumer confidence numbers.  Ugly, my friend, ugly.

NYC - I like your arguments.

However, February has historically been lower than January nearly every time. 

Some other fun facts about February.

- It’s the shortest month
- Divorces filed are at the highest every February (Interestingly enough, Feb. 14 is the highest filing date).
- There are more suicides in February than any other month.
-  It’s a depressing month dude. 
-  Valentine’s Day is in February
- Lincoln and Washington birthdays in February
-  Slavery gets talked about more in February
- NAACP revenues spike in February

friday intra-day 1043 low. thats it







Rod Smyth turned bearish today.   i like him.



(ps: how did the japs turn so stupid?   gezz man)

[quote=Moraen] NYC - I like your arguments.However, February has historically been lower than January nearly every time. Some other fun facts about February.- It’s the shortest month- Divorces filed are at the highest every February (Interestingly enough, Feb. 14 is the highest filing date).- There are more suicides in February than any other month.- It’s a depressing month dude. - Valentine’s Day is in February- Lincoln and Washington birthdays in February- Slavery gets talked about more in February- NAACP revenues spike in February

[/quote]



thats interesting.   i wonder why?



OMG…my ex-wives birthday was in Feb!!!



You’re right!!!



wow

I really should be working on work stuff, but I just spent about 20 minutes doing this:

Consumer confidence index statistics:

From 1978 to 2010, the consumer confidence index has fallen from January to February 26 out of 33 times.  Which is 78.78%.

Of those 26 times, the drop has been greater than 5% exactly 24 times, or about 90% of the times it dropped.

Of the 7 times where January was the month with lower consumer confidence, 4 were less than 1% lower than February.  The remaining three were the years from 1997-1999.

that is interesting



I wonder if it is hope for new year? (in Jan)   

resolutions etc?

then MF reality sets in that your life still sucks?



like at the Y.   a billion peeps in jan.

then in feb back to normal

[quote=Moraen]I really should be working on work stuff, but I just spent about 20 minutes doing this:

Consumer confidence index statistics:

From 1978 to 2010, the consumer confidence index has fallen from January to February 26 out of 33 times.  Which is 78.78%.

Of those 26 times, the drop has been greater than 5% exactly 24 times, or about 90% of the times it dropped.

Of the 7 times where January was the month with lower consumer confidence, 4 were less than 1% lower than February.  The remaining three were the years from 1997-1999.

[/quote]

Interesting stuff Moraen.  Thanks for the posting this.