[quote=Moraen]

[quote=NYCTrader]

[quote=Moraen]

[quote=NYCTrader]

[quote=Moraen]

[quote=NYCTrader]Shania, the II Bull/Bear ratio is off the charts!!  3.13!!  That’s 52.2% bulls and 16.7% bears.  A spread of 35.5%. 

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intelligence.htm

If I’m a bull, I don’t like those numbers at all.  Too much blind optimism. 

Plus, you have insiders selling hand over fist.  If the corporate execs are cashing out now, what does that tell you about their confidence that share prices will continue to go up?


http://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue

Best of luck.  Hope the rally continues, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.  Anyone buying in now is rolling the dice big time. 



[/quote]

Look at the dates on the insider selling. All in December. Could it be that it is a tax issue for these folks?  Or that their options are about to expire?
[/quote]

Insider selling has been rampant for the entire fourth quarter.  The link I posted just shows the last week’s numbers.   Come on man, do the research.  Insiders are selling like crazy and it has nothing to with tax issues or options expiring.  It has everything to do with how frothy share prices are right now and locking in gains.  These people are not stupid.  They are making sure they get paid. 

[/quote]

Show me the other links.  Those all show from the 17th.  How do you know all 4th quarter sales aren’t for tax reasons?

And the fact that certain options will expire definitely skews the statistics. 

“Doing the research” involves more than just looking at insider trade numbers.
[/quote]

I’m not going to do your research for you. 



How do you know all 4th quarter sales ARE for tax reasons?



Believe whatever you want.  I don’t really care. 



The only person on this board who has laid out a bullish case is
Moriah.  I disagree with him, but at least he has a point of view
beyond “show me more links”.




[/quote]

Who is Moriah?  Is that a combination of me and Shania? 

I don’t know they are for tax reasons.  But just because an insider sells, doesn’t automatically mean the stock is going to fall.  If they are taking profits, maybe it is because they didn’t want to get the shaft in case something went bad like last time.

It’s ok to take money off of the table.

I think you are reading a little too much into one thing.  A little backwards reasoning is more telling about insider selling than just looking at bare bones numbers.

Most CEOs and directors have some formal strategic training.  Selling now, whether or not for tax reasons makes good strategic sense.  Taking profits off of the table to diversify their holdings might make sense for them.  Or to take advantage of other opportunities outside of the equity markets.  Real estate in Las Vegas, I hear, is very cheap right now.
[/quote]

You’re absolutely right. 

[quote=NYCTrader]



than participate in downside.





[/quote]



I dont like this either.   





(BTW. keep it simply.   Q’s to 51 quickly)

[quote=NYCTrader]   Would rather miss out on upside than participate in downside. 

[/quote]

Agree bit time.  I am considerably more cautious than I was in November to be sure.  I don’t share a the “raging” bull opinion.  But neither am I bearish.

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft

newsletter writers fell to the lowest level since April 1987,
six months before the equity market crash known as Black Monday,
following the biggest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
in seven decades.

The proportion of bearish publications among about 140
tracked by Investors Intelligence fell to 15.6 percent yesterday
from 16.7 percent a week earlier. Sentiment has improved since
October 2008, when the financial crisis drove the figure to a
14-year high of 54.4 percent. After plunging 38 percent in 2008,
the S&P 500 has risen 24 percent this year.

Some analysts consider lower pessimism a sign stocks will
stop advancing, under the theory that there are fewer bearish
investors left to change their minds and purchase shares. The
S&P 500 plunged 20 percent on Oct. 19, 1987.

“Wow, I know things are better than they were one year
ago, but are they so dramatically better with little downside
risk?” Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak &
Co. in New York, wrote in an e-mail to clients today. “Combine
this sentiment reading with the VIX at 20 and 2010 will be
interesting, especially with the very likely prospect of higher
interest rates.”

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility
Index is known, is posting a record annual drop as investors pay
less for protection from declines in the S&P 500. It has fallen
75 percent since a record high of 80.86 in November 2008. The
dollar climbed to a three-month high against the yen today on
speculation the Federal Reserve will withdraw stimulus measures
as the economy recovers.

10% Retreat

The percentage of surveyed newsletter writers who are
bullish declined to 51.1 percent from 52.2 percent. Advisers
expecting a correction, or 10 percent retreat, rose to 33.3
percent from 31.1 percent. Investors Intelligence, based in New
Rochelle, New York, has examined forecasts in newsletters
since 1963.

When the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
to records in October 2007, the bullish percentage was 62
percent. The S&P 500 fell 57 percent from that record to a 12-
year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009. The benchmark index has
since rebounded 66 percent to 1,123.91.

The following are results from Investors Intelligence’s
analysis of investment newsletters for Dec. 23 through
yesterday.

15.6% number



these are frustrated bears tired of looking stupid.   They going to “correction” camp.



first 5% down move that bear number will explode (like july).



everyone has a qualifier.    



inflation

deflation

china faux

jews

iran

new normal

old normal

mad cow

swine flu

blah blah blah



this just like 1982.    read those headlines



You wont find many saying mid teens 10 year annual returns coming…cept me



bric



brazil middle class

india eating twice a day

china

commies



ag,infra,tech,commods

(no bac, bby, tgt etc)



the first 2 weeks in jan gonna be fun.