Skee, your call on fundamental analysis may be valid.  You’re right in that all firms have access to the same information.  However, isn’t the same true of technical analysis? 

Why do you think oil is trading above $65 a barrel? Is there any

"fundamental" justification? or rather is it momentum, lack of overhead

resistence (a rather technical) term?



My folks thought I was crazy selling MSFT and DELL to buy OXY and VMC,

not any more. Remember that our job is to navigate the markets and

make our clients money, plain and simple. If your horse is not leading

the race—change the horse before they change the jockey.



The MSFT analyst is not going to tell you to dump the stock for the next 2

years becasue he’ll be left out of any future banking business. Just look

at how many “sell” recos are issued by wall street if you doubt what i’m

saying.



Elliot Spitzer, where are You?

I didn’t say I doubted what you posted.  I asked why you think that technical analysis is proprietary.

Sorry if I sounded harsh…I didn’t mean to. Its just that I can’t believe that

there are people out there that put such credence on fundamentals. I

remember the parade of mutual fund wholesalers in '99 coming out with

all these crazy forecast models and why they’re funds were the place to

invest.



My answer to your question is that this business of ours is a delicate

balance of science and art. Two people may agree that oil drilling is the

place to be but choose two different stocks that represent the industry.

One may go up 80% and the other 30%. That’s life.



It took me a few years to find out good sources of buy side research and I

have been with them for a long time. I maintain a very active approach to

portfolio management. If a position is not working out, ie: slippage or

not keeping up with peers I make adjustments.



After 12 years in the bus. I have a feeling for an appropriate level of

turnover in a client’s account.

[quote=skeedaddy]Why do you think oil is trading above $65 a barrel? Is there any
"fundamental" justification? or rather is it momentum, lack of overhead
resistence (a rather technical) term? 

[/quote]

Uh, yeah...I think there is a fundamental justification.  It's called supply and demand.  Do you realize how many new drivers there are just in China each day?!!

I'm glad charting works for you.  I've happened to have a fair amount of success with fundamentals, so I think I'll stick with what works for me.  You and I will just have to respectfully disagree about the value of technical trading vs. fundamental trading.  My guess is that the stocks mentioned in your previous post do not comprise the universe of your stock picks, and I'll further wager that you've had some real stinkers that you've failed to mention.  Hey, I'm no different in that respect...I'm much more interested in talking about my winners.

I've said it before to others and I'll say it again to you, if you are really that sharp at stock picking (and have a proven track record of consistently beating the market), why aren't you managing a fund?

"My answer to your question is that this business of ours is a delicate
balance of science and art."

I don't think you answered his question at all. He asked you, since you dismissed fundamental research as something "everybody has", it's it true that "everybody has" the very same TA charts. You may have a valid criticism about fundamental research, but the same applies to TA, “everybody has it”.<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

[quote=Indyone]

[quote=skeedaddy]Why do you think oil is trading above $65 a barrel? Is there any “fundamental” justification? or rather is it momentum, lack of overhead resistence (a rather technical) term? [/quote]

Uh, yeah…I think there is a fundamental justification. It’s called supply and demand. Do you realize how many new drivers there are just in China each day?!!

I’m glad charting works for you. I’ve happened to have a fair amount of success with fundamentals, so I think I’ll stick with what works for me. You and I will just have to respectfully disagree about the value of technical trading vs. fundamental trading. My guess is that the stocks mentioned in your previous post do not comprise the universe of your stock picks, and I’ll further wager that you’ve had some real stinkers that you’ve failed to mention. Hey, I’m no different in that respect…I’m much more interested in talking about my winners.

I’ve said it before to others and I’ll say it again to you, if you are really that sharp at stock picking (and have a proven track record of consistently beating the market), why aren’t you managing a fund?

Sorry about the double post–still working on quote feature.



Indyone:



I’ll start a fund if you agree to become my 1st external wholesaler.   



Your point about China is accurate, and BTW, you forgot about India. In

fact most of the developing world has been trying to improve their living

conditions and standards. They’ve been doing so for the last 30 years.



Each and every year, the demand for oil and energy has been increasing.

The question is who “flipped the switch” sending oil across 30, 40, 50 and

now 60 a barrel?



I think you’ll agree that NO WALL ST ANALYSTS were out there pounding

the tables to buy energy at $25/barrel because of increased Chinese

consumption. It seems more like after the sector was on fire, did they

start appearing on TV and putting out research.



You can always spin a story to your benefit, and I think that is what they

do, over and over again. Sure, if you upgrade a stock after good news is

out and you keep your forecast to within pennies of your colleagues, and

get paid $500,000 and fly first class–why not? I wish I had gone to

Wharton Business School too.



2 years ago the charts got me interested in COP, OXY and VLO. I didn’t

wait for some 28 year-old MBA to spoon feed me.

If you'll share your complete and unabridged track record, I'll certainly consider it.

Interestingly enough, I personally purchased VLO on 12/28/2001 at $18.905, split adjusted.  I justified my purchase on fundamentals, such as low P/E, etc.  It took a little while for the story to work well, but ultimately it worked out very well.  I'm pretty sure that a CSFB analyst got me interested in the stock initially, although to be honest, I don't remember for sure where I got the idea.  What I do remember is, the stock looked cheap.  I guess the moral of this story is that there are more than one way to get the same apple.

I'm not going to stand up for all analysts, as I've seen plenty that didn't deserve any defense, but much like there are plenty of good and bad investment advisors, there are also some very good stock analysts who make buy and sell calls for the right reason and in a timely manner.

Hey, if you're good at this game, it's never too late for Wharton.

Thank you Indyone.  Every night after dinner now, I look up your posts just to make myself laugh!  "Never too late for Wharton!"  Great school now that you mention it.  Ed Moldt was one of my early mentors and he tought there in the late 80s.  Not a bad school.

Ed "a great man" is no longer teaching there but thanks for all you taught me Ed.  It was from you I learned how not to be a sheep like you Indyone and all these fools who run Wall Street. 

Put up something good would you for Tuesday nights desert.  I had a kick ass day today Indyone.  My picks are smoking!