Text Book Head and Shoulders Pattern
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The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
Very good, I see you've been paying attention to the information posted on these boards. So what I am hearing is that as a financial professional, you cannot see (not predict) what sectors are doing well and position your clients to take advantage of that? Your value proposition is "I will tell you it's ok in the bad times, if you hold on long enough, you will be ok." Is that it? So you are predicting this based on the past? What you don't realize is that you rely far more heavily on predictions than I do. Ironic.The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
Very good, I see you've been paying attention to the information posted on these boards. So what I am hearing is that as a financial professional, you cannot see (not predict) what sectors are doing well and position your clients to take advantage of that? Your value proposition is "I will tell you it's ok in the bad times, if you hold on long enough, you will be ok." Is that it? So you are predicting this based on the past? What you don't realize is that you rely far more heavily on predictions than I do. Ironic.[/quote] You are correct I don't predict anything. You are telling me that you look at what sectors are doing well and then position your clients to take advantage of that, AFTER THEY HAVE STARTED DOING WELL. That is usually late to the party and proves you just follow the crowd. Genius ![quote=Ron 14]The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
Just to clarify I don’t pick sectors. I use broad indexes and EMA to decide when to move portfolios… And I am not talking on a daily on monthly basis… i tend to make about sixteen trades/years or less(this is the high end for aggressive accounts where we use short etfs… 1 trade equals a sell or buy… so about 8 roundtrip a year on the high end… not including individual equities)
I think if American funds could have they would have started dumping their investments, but by prospectus they are limited not their fault…Very good stock pickers in a buy and hold market, intl bias helped boost their numbers previous to the crash… And they openly admit that some of their funds own the same things(something I don’t have a problem with, if it keeps popping up probably not a bad idea to own it)
Very good, I see you've been paying attention to the information posted on these boards. So what I am hearing is that as a financial professional, you cannot see (not predict) what sectors are doing well and position your clients to take advantage of that? Your value proposition is "I will tell you it's ok in the bad times, if you hold on long enough, you will be ok." Is that it? So you are predicting this based on the past? What you don't realize is that you rely far more heavily on predictions than I do. Ironic.[/quote] You are correct I don't predict anything. You are telling me that you look at what sectors are doing well and then position your clients to take advantage of that, AFTER THEY HAVE STARTED DOING WELL. That is usually late to the party and proves you just follow the crowd. Genius ![/quote] You predict that buying and holding will do well based on past performance. Of course every piece of sales lit you hand out says "Past performance..." You are correct, I go into areas of the market after they have begun to do well as opposed to when they are doing poorly. As far as following the crowd, you couldn't be farther off. I got out in Jan 08. Went back in last week. Your weak mind will say "You missed a 40% rally!!! Hahahaha". I will reply that I missed a 30% downturn. To each his own. I have never had a prospect who was down any amount tell me how beneficial DCA is, how it allows you to buy more shares at a cheaper price lower your cost basis. I have had many prospects ask me "why can't a professional do anything during a bad market?" You are the reason companies like Vangaurd and E*Trade exist. Clients can close their eyes and buy all by themselves, which judging by the fact you failed at Jones and have to work for a bank demonstrates you know all too well.[quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14]The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
Worked out well. It lost it's validity and I removed the protective hedging that was used to profit from it if it made the usual H&S move. No biggy. Point is we were ready for it and will be the next time. What's the bid deal? If you are market neutral it's just another way to make money. Do you not believe in technical analysis?Just look at this thread closely. It was begun by one of these “Simons, Soror, Rogers”-esque market-timimg wizards (hahahahahahaaaa!!!). How did that head and shoulders collapse work out for his clients? I rest my case.
Gaddock, you’re too nice. This guy is being a d**k and you keep giving him the benefit of the doubt.
He only believes in selling false hope to old ladies.
Yeah, the bummer is his ability to make production trumps their need to have a decent living…sigh. I guess FINRA is a good thing after all.
Very good, I see you've been paying attention to the information posted on these boards. So what I am hearing is that as a financial professional, you cannot see (not predict) what sectors are doing well and position your clients to take advantage of that? Your value proposition is "I will tell you it's ok in the bad times, if you hold on long enough, you will be ok." Is that it? So you are predicting this based on the past? What you don't realize is that you rely far more heavily on predictions than I do. Ironic.[/quote] You are correct I don't predict anything. You are telling me that you look at what sectors are doing well and then position your clients to take advantage of that, AFTER THEY HAVE STARTED DOING WELL. That is usually late to the party and proves you just follow the crowd. Genius ![/quote] You predict that buying and holding will do well based on past performance. Of course every piece of sales lit you hand out says "Past performance..." You are correct, I go into areas of the market after they have begun to do well as opposed to when they are doing poorly. As far as following the crowd, you couldn't be farther off. I got out in Jan 08. Went back in last week. Your weak mind will say "You missed a 40% rally!!! Hahahaha". I will reply that I missed a 30% downturn. To each his own. I have never had a prospect who was down any amount tell me how beneficial DCA is, how it allows you to buy more shares at a cheaper price lower your cost basis. I have had many prospects ask me "why can't a professional do anything during a bad market?" You are the reason companies like Vangaurd and E*Trade exist. Clients can close their eyes and buy all by themselves, which judging by the fact you failed at Jones and have to work for a bank demonstrates you know all too well.[/quote] Past performance doesn't do much when the market has been flat over 10 years. Explain to me how using past performance would help anyone sell anything after the last decade. If you think owning equities is the wrong choice for the long term, but jumping in and out is the right choice, good luck. People go to Vanguard and ETrade because they think they can jump in and out like you think you can. The average investor always bails at the wrong time and a brief look at the history of mutual fund in/outflows would show you that, but you are too busy reading a Jim Cramer book to follow logic.[quote=Ron 14][quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14]The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
What if you could consistently set up positions that are successfully no matter where the market goes? If such magic existed would it be something you would consider? YOU CAN EVEN DCA into it.
What would you think about that?Very good, I see you've been paying attention to the information posted on these boards. So what I am hearing is that as a financial professional, you cannot see (not predict) what sectors are doing well and position your clients to take advantage of that? Your value proposition is "I will tell you it's ok in the bad times, if you hold on long enough, you will be ok." Is that it? So you are predicting this based on the past? What you don't realize is that you rely far more heavily on predictions than I do. Ironic.[/quote] You are correct I don't predict anything. You are telling me that you look at what sectors are doing well and then position your clients to take advantage of that, AFTER THEY HAVE STARTED DOING WELL. That is usually late to the party and proves you just follow the crowd. Genius ![/quote] You predict that buying and holding will do well based on past performance. Of course every piece of sales lit you hand out says "Past performance..." You are correct, I go into areas of the market after they have begun to do well as opposed to when they are doing poorly. As far as following the crowd, you couldn't be farther off. I got out in Jan 08. Went back in last week. Your weak mind will say "You missed a 40% rally!!! Hahahaha". I will reply that I missed a 30% downturn. To each his own. I have never had a prospect who was down any amount tell me how beneficial DCA is, how it allows you to buy more shares at a cheaper price lower your cost basis. I have had many prospects ask me "why can't a professional do anything during a bad market?" You are the reason companies like Vangaurd and E*Trade exist. Clients can close their eyes and buy all by themselves, which judging by the fact you failed at Jones and have to work for a bank demonstrates you know all too well.[/quote] Past performance doesn't do much when the market has been flat over 10 years. Explain to me how using past performance would help anyone sell anything after the last decade. If you think owning equities is the wrong choice for the long term, but jumping in and out is the right choice, good luck. People go to Vanguard and ETrade because they think they can jump in and out like you think you can. The average investor always bails at the wrong time and a brief look at the history of mutual fund in/outflows would show you that, but you are too busy reading a Jim Cramer book to follow logic. [/quote] You have completely talked yourself around in a circle. So tell me, what is your basis behind reccomending buy and hold? That is doesn't work because of the last ten years? Or are you saying that as a buy and hold advisor, you haven't been able to sell anything due to the market action? People go to Vangaurd because they see no value in buying and holding, yes there are traders, but the majority of DIY investors go to Vangaurd et al because they have see no value in the "hold on, historically equities are the only way to beat inflation" pitch. They can suffer a 38% loss without paying you for it. If you consider getting out in Jan 08 and back in July 09 to be trading, then you need to get out more. I will give you a thought which will make you money. Job #1 is not to lose money. Job #2 is to not let little mistakes become big mistakes. A 38% drawdown violates both. As does a 35%, 28%, 25% (whatever you claim to be your 08 #) drawdown.[quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14][quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14]The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
Mutual Fund A share 3.5%
Wrap account 1.5% Seeing a person describe exactly why they sell a product that is the antithesis to their 'strategy' ... PricelessVery good, I see you've been paying attention to the information posted on these boards. So what I am hearing is that as a financial professional, you cannot see (not predict) what sectors are doing well and position your clients to take advantage of that? Your value proposition is "I will tell you it's ok in the bad times, if you hold on long enough, you will be ok." Is that it? So you are predicting this based on the past? What you don't realize is that you rely far more heavily on predictions than I do. Ironic.[/quote] You are correct I don't predict anything. You are telling me that you look at what sectors are doing well and then position your clients to take advantage of that, AFTER THEY HAVE STARTED DOING WELL. That is usually late to the party and proves you just follow the crowd. Genius ![/quote] You predict that buying and holding will do well based on past performance. Of course every piece of sales lit you hand out says "Past performance..." You are correct, I go into areas of the market after they have begun to do well as opposed to when they are doing poorly. As far as following the crowd, you couldn't be farther off. I got out in Jan 08. Went back in last week. Your weak mind will say "You missed a 40% rally!!! Hahahaha". I will reply that I missed a 30% downturn. To each his own. I have never had a prospect who was down any amount tell me how beneficial DCA is, how it allows you to buy more shares at a cheaper price lower your cost basis. I have had many prospects ask me "why can't a professional do anything during a bad market?" You are the reason companies like Vangaurd and E*Trade exist. Clients can close their eyes and buy all by themselves, which judging by the fact you failed at Jones and have to work for a bank demonstrates you know all too well.[/quote] Past performance doesn't do much when the market has been flat over 10 years. Explain to me how using past performance would help anyone sell anything after the last decade. If you think owning equities is the wrong choice for the long term, but jumping in and out is the right choice, good luck. People go to Vanguard and ETrade because they think they can jump in and out like you think you can. The average investor always bails at the wrong time and a brief look at the history of mutual fund in/outflows would show you that, but you are too busy reading a Jim Cramer book to follow logic. [/quote] You have completely talked yourself around in a circle. So tell me, what is your basis behind reccomending buy and hold? That is doesn't work because of the last ten years? Or are you saying that as a buy and hold advisor, you haven't been able to sell anything due to the market action? People go to Vangaurd because they see no value in buying and holding, yes there are traders, but the majority of DIY investors go to Vangaurd et al because they have see no value in the "hold on, historically equities are the only way to beat inflation" pitch. They can suffer a 38% loss without paying you for it. If you consider getting out in Jan 08 and back in July 09 to be trading, then you need to get out more. I will give you a thought which will make you money. Job #1 is not to lose money. Job #2 is to not let little mistakes become big mistakes. A 38% drawdown violates both. As does a 35%, 28%, 25% (whatever you claim to be your 08 #) drawdown.[/quote] You claimed I sell on past performance and I said how is that possible when the last 10yr performance wouldnt help in that area. A balanced ETF allocation over the last 10 yrs did 5.8%. If you are rebalancing and helping people avoid the big mistakes (jumping into smallcap in 2000 because it killed everything else, jumping into bonds in 2002 because it killed everything else, selling their portfolio to buy an apartment building in 2006 because it killed everything else) you are doing your job. There are different forms of buy and hold. I am not saying buy 30 individual stocks and never sell them. There are slight adjustments you can make to enhance a portfolio, but going completely in or out is not something that can be repeated successfully.[quote=Ron 14][quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14][quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14]The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
[quote=Gaddock]What if you could consistently set up positions that are successfully no matter where the market goes? If such magic existed would it be something you would consider? YOU CAN EVEN DCA into it.
What would you think about that?[/quote] Gaddock we have gone over this. I know this is what you do. Options aren't even on my product list. IF I WERE YOU I WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE PROFITS FOR MYSELF. I WOULDNT GIVE THOSE AWAY FOR A WRAP FEE.Very good, I see you've been paying attention to the information posted on these boards. So what I am hearing is that as a financial professional, you cannot see (not predict) what sectors are doing well and position your clients to take advantage of that? Your value proposition is "I will tell you it's ok in the bad times, if you hold on long enough, you will be ok." Is that it? So you are predicting this based on the past? What you don't realize is that you rely far more heavily on predictions than I do. Ironic.[/quote] You are correct I don't predict anything. You are telling me that you look at what sectors are doing well and then position your clients to take advantage of that, AFTER THEY HAVE STARTED DOING WELL. That is usually late to the party and proves you just follow the crowd. Genius ![/quote] You predict that buying and holding will do well based on past performance. Of course every piece of sales lit you hand out says "Past performance..." You are correct, I go into areas of the market after they have begun to do well as opposed to when they are doing poorly. As far as following the crowd, you couldn't be farther off. I got out in Jan 08. Went back in last week. Your weak mind will say "You missed a 40% rally!!! Hahahaha". I will reply that I missed a 30% downturn. To each his own. I have never had a prospect who was down any amount tell me how beneficial DCA is, how it allows you to buy more shares at a cheaper price lower your cost basis. I have had many prospects ask me "why can't a professional do anything during a bad market?" You are the reason companies like Vangaurd and E*Trade exist. Clients can close their eyes and buy all by themselves, which judging by the fact you failed at Jones and have to work for a bank demonstrates you know all too well.[/quote] Past performance doesn't do much when the market has been flat over 10 years. Explain to me how using past performance would help anyone sell anything after the last decade. If you think owning equities is the wrong choice for the long term, but jumping in and out is the right choice, good luck. People go to Vanguard and ETrade because they think they can jump in and out like you think you can. The average investor always bails at the wrong time and a brief look at the history of mutual fund in/outflows would show you that, but you are too busy reading a Jim Cramer book to follow logic. [/quote] You have completely talked yourself around in a circle. So tell me, what is your basis behind reccomending buy and hold? That is doesn't work because of the last ten years? Or are you saying that as a buy and hold advisor, you haven't been able to sell anything due to the market action? People go to Vangaurd because they see no value in buying and holding, yes there are traders, but the majority of DIY investors go to Vangaurd et al because they have see no value in the "hold on, historically equities are the only way to beat inflation" pitch. They can suffer a 38% loss without paying you for it. If you consider getting out in Jan 08 and back in July 09 to be trading, then you need to get out more. I will give you a thought which will make you money. Job #1 is not to lose money. Job #2 is to not let little mistakes become big mistakes. A 38% drawdown violates both. As does a 35%, 28%, 25% (whatever you claim to be your 08 #) drawdown.[/quote] You claimed I sell on past performance and I said how is that possible when the last 10yr performance wouldnt help in that area. A balanced ETF allocation over the last 10 yrs did 5.8%. If you are rebalancing and helping people avoid the big mistakes (jumping into smallcap in 2000 because it killed everything else, jumping into bonds in 2002 because it killed everything else, selling their portfolio to buy an apartment building in 2006 because it killed everything else) you are doing your job. There are different forms of buy and hold. I am not saying buy 30 individual stocks and never sell them. There are slight adjustments you can make to enhance a portfolio, but going completely in or out is not something that can be repeated successfully. [/quote] Small caps were bad in 2000? Hmmmmm. Might have to disagree with you. What exactly do you consider a balanced ETF portfolio?[quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14][quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14][quote=Jebediah][quote=Ron 14]The questions about American Funds ? In the 90’s they didn’t chase any tech or telecom because they were businesses they did not understand thus they didnt see great returns because the 90’s were fueled by monster gains in those areas. 00-07 they were good because they werent in the tech that crashed and they were huge owners of financials (largest shareholders of AIG, BofA, Citi) that paid great dividends and had huge gains. When that sh*t hit fan so did their funds. This just adds to my argument that nobody can predict the market. If monster fund companies with all of the resources in the world miss these huge fluctuations I am not going to push my value proposition by saying that I can predict them.
Can you read ? Small cap in 2000 because it killed everything else, meaning it did better than everything else. Everyone jumped in at the wrong time.
Balanced port would be 15% russell 1000 val, 15% russell 1000 growth, 10% Russell 2000, 20% MSCI EAFE, 30% Barclays Aggregate, 5% CS/Tremont Market Neutral, 5% NAREIT index
Depending on the time frame you run the above from, it is between 4.5-5.5%. Not great but not bad considering it was the worst decade ever for equity investing.
I can read, however translating your own statements back to you is becoming tiresome. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_600_vs_Russell2000_Concept_Paper.pdf You implied that getting into smallcaps in 2000 was the wrong move. However, smallcaps made money during the 2000-2002 market. Averaged about 5% annually from 2000-2008 (Yes that includes 2008). My statement was that I would have to disagree with you that smallcaps went bad in 2000. Care to disagree?Can you read ? Small cap in 2000 because it killed everything else, meaning it did better than everything else. Everyone jumped in at the wrong time.
The average investor jumps into smcap in 2000 (or just tech companies because their uncles nephews teacher made 100k in a day), treads water for 2 years and then sees it go down 20%. They say “I could have made 10% had I been in bonds, I am investing in bonds, this economy and this market sucks.” They are always late to the party.