Right on, Joe. And you rest easier.

Proactively contacting everyone in this manner right now is critical for me, although I am more like at the beach because portfolios are mostly ready. So it is just the personal contact that matters.

Free Lunch, you probably already know how much you elevate yourself as a professional when you call clients and say, " We're sitting in 40% fixed right now, and we've had a good run, and I'm reviewing what you said about your goals, and I'd like to move another 10% over to fixed for right now."

When you talk about the portfolio in terms of the mix, instead of relatively distaste individual vehicles, it is better for all.

With good reporting tools, you can pull up their allocation at close last night, look at 12 month trailing, year to date performance, drop in the S&P and broad bond indexes, and talk about that, then make your adjustment or not. Combine that with some fun time spent with clients and their friends, and we get and keep all the biz we need here.

I love managed money because people a lot smarter than myself can handle the tactical moves in the portfolio.



In general I’m reducing equity & high yield stakes in portfolios right now by 10 - 15%. Most of my clients don’t need or want to beat the market. Their bogey is that inflation number in their retirment plan. For me that means we avoid big losses even if we forego some gain.



My client’s like that & I have seen my assets grow dramatically in the past several weeks.

Now we are on to something, you can't handle losses/volatility. Having not experienced any, you feel sense of anticipation for punishment. Don't project that onto other people.

I generally like your posts, but this is a prime example of how your assumptions and logic over torque my lugnuts sometimes. You don't really know anything about how much my clients had lost at the aftermath of the last market mania, and what motivates me and my clients now.

One idea for the more technical brokers here - monitor the S&P futures (ES) for some additional help or guidance. As I’m sure all the smart brokers here know, the futures markets are very quick and responsive to movements. They can sometimes provide that little glimpse you might want or need.

For those just selling away, this won’t make much sense at all. I understand, I was there too!

[quote=joedabrkr]

Most people do it.  I make a couple of
extra bucks and they rest easier at night knowing that they’ve put some
of their realized profits in a safer pocket.
[/quote]



What your basicly doing it telling people to rebalance back to target
weighting. Thats part of straight up good portfolio management, w/o any
tactical elements.

[quote=GolFA]

Now we are on to something, you can’t handle
losses/volatility. Having not experienced any, you feel sense of
anticipation for punishment. Don’t project that onto other people.

I generally like your posts, but this is a prime example of how your assumptions and logic over torque my lugnuts sometimes. You don't really know anything about how much my clients had lost at the aftermath of the last market mania, and what motivates me and my clients now.

If I lost half my book, I'd do very little different except start prospecting harder. But I survived with 1/2 my book back then and can do the same now.

Infact the smartest thing of all, would be if my personal investments were wholly non-correlated with the market, since my professional fortunes are. So like a good pit trader, you own nothing but T-bills for your personal account

Now I know you are not a real advisor with actual clients.  If you are a fee advisor you would need to disclose to your clients that the investment tactics you are using for their portfolios are not the same as that you are using for your own.  This is a severe breach of fiduciary duty if you don't tell them you were recommending something that you are avoiding for yourself......and is illegal.

The fact you can shrug off losing half of your book without considering that your clients have lost half of their money and lifesavings is frightening.  I doubt that the example of OldProducer's colleague who committed suicide was because his "book" was down.  I imagine it was because he couldn't live with the guilt or idea that it might have been his mistakes and advice that has ruined other people's lives.

While what we do here is academic and analytical in many respects we always have to remember that we are dealing with real people's lives, hopes and dreams.  If we don't use our best efforts we can end up ruining somebody for years if not forever.

[quote=Dust Bunny]

If I lost half my book, I’d do very little
different except start prospecting harder. But I survived with 1/2 my
book back then and can do the same now.

Infact the smartest
thing of all, would be if my personal investments were wholly
non-correlated with the market, since my professional fortunes are. So like a good pit trader, you own nothing but T-bills for your personal account

Now I know you are not a real advisor with actual clients.  If you are a fee advisor you would need to disclose to your clients that the investment tactics you are using for their portfolios are not the same as that you are using for your own.  This is a severe breach of fiduciary duty if you don't tell them you were recommending something that you are avoiding for yourself......and is illegal.

The fact you can shrug off losing half of your book without considering that your clients have lost half of their money and lifesavings is frightening.  I doubt that the example of OldProducer's colleague who committed suicide was because his "book" was down.  I imagine it was because he couldn't live with the guilt or idea that it might have been his mistakes and advice that has ruined other people's lives.

While what we do here is academic and analytical in many respects we always have to remember that we are dealing with real people's lives, hopes and dreams.  If we don't use our best efforts we can end up ruining somebody for years if not forever.

Using your best efforts on behalf of clients includes not getting emotional about money.

[quote=AllREIT] [quote=Dust Bunny]

Using your best efforts on behalf of clients includes not getting emotional about money.

[/quote]

Or you can sell them a VA with principal protection, keep your clients happy and get new people in the door to help. 

[quote=AllREIT]

[quote=joedabrkr]

Most people do it.  I make a couple of
extra bucks and they rest easier at night knowing that they’ve put some
of their realized profits in a safer pocket.
[/quote]



What your basicly doing it telling people to rebalance back to target
weighting. Thats part of straight up good portfolio management, w/o any
tactical elements.

[/quote]

Not exactly, because I rebalance the fee-based (IAR) accounts back to a model weighting on an ongoing basis.  What I’m actually doing is telling them to take some of the profits out of the “variable” fee based portfolio and put it into a guaranteed “pocket”…to take it out of the MPT-oriented portfolio.

deekay - you say a VA will help with principal protection.

That's generally only for Income Purposes & Death Benefit.

I have recently met a guy whose VA he bought in 1999 For $110,000 is only worth $60,000, as his "Financial Advisor" (insurance salesman) didn't portray what he was really buying.  Putnam Growth Funds and Janus, etc.etc.etc.

For every great annuity salesman there might be 2 ignorant ones.  I doubt that any advisor coming here is an ignorant one, and in fact the vast majority of people here probably REALLY know what they are doing.

The more appropriate way to approach it is "A Well Balanced Investment portfolio within a Variable Annuity with good features"

Claiming that a VA is a great way to do it is simply TOO VAGUE

AS FAR AS THE ARGUE THAT TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION IS POINTLESS.

Take a look at the Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Funds.

They are GREAT for smaller tickets.  And These guys manage the funds in the portfolio TACTICALLY and the FUND is rather expensive.  Even with high fees it still OUTPERFORMS.

Is it worth it?  I think so.  If tactical asset allocation was not OF VALUE, then thousands of people would be out of a job, including CFAs, Hedge Funds, Professors, and the list goes on and on.

People that have no faith in this are more than likely the people who do not value investment expertise and simply invest in Index Funds.

[quote=futurestrader]One idea for the more technical brokers here - monitor the S&P futures (ES) for some additional help or guidance. As I’m sure all the smart brokers here know, the futures markets are very quick and responsive to movements. They can sometimes provide that little glimpse you might want or need.

For those just selling away, this won’t make much sense at all. I understand, I was there too!

[/quote]


There is absolutely no difference between the futures chart and the cash chart (think arbitrage,) except that the futures move about 15 seconds (on average) in front of the cash. (the tail that wags the dog)

[quote=AllREIT]

From what I saw of the aftermath, losses of 70% were not uncommon.  But that’s the cost of speculation on a sure thing.

[/quote]

Wrong.   It is not the cost of speculation, rather it’s the cost of not having a strategy in place to protect oneself in the event that the market does the opposite of what you hope it will do.

For example, losses of 70% are impossible with the use of a 20% trailing stop. (even if you allow for ridiculous slippage and gap openings.)

ALLREIT,

If your clients lost 70%, I truly understand why you are currently in All Reits.

Those type of losses are ridiculous.

[quote=ManagedMoney]

[quote=AllREIT]

From what I saw of the aftermath, losses of 70% were not uncommon.  But that’s the cost of speculation on a sure thing.

[/quote]

Wrong.
  It is not the cost of speculation, rather it’s the cost of not
having a strategy in place to protect oneself in the event that the
market does the opposite of what you hope it will do.

For
example, losses of 70% are impossible with the use of a 20% trailing
stop. (even if you allow for ridiculous slippage and gap openings.)
[/quote]



I was talking about what I saw from clients who came to me in the aftermath of the tech bubble.

[quote=AllREIT] [quote=GolFA]

Now we are on to something, you can't handle losses/volatility. Having not experienced any, you feel sense of anticipation for punishment. Don't project that onto other people.

I generally like your posts, but this is a prime example of how your assumptions and logic over torque my lugnuts sometimes. You don't really know anything about how much my clients had lost at the aftermath of the last market mania, and what motivates me and my clients now.

[/quote]

From what I saw of the aftermath, losses of 70% were not uncommon.  But that's the cost of speculation on a sure thing.

Don't take things so personally, have some confidence in yourself and what you are doing.
[/quote]

I thought about it, and it's good advice. Kind of like listening to Miles Davis at the first refrain, waiting for Coltrane to kick in. Allreit f****ng Soprano.

deekay - you say a VA will help with principal protection.

That's generally only for Income Purposes & Death Benefit.

Incorrect.  GMABs are all about principal protection.  I like them more than GMIB benefits because they are a more honest benefit (ie. none of the bullsh*t 5% that GMIB's give)

Personally, I tend to use a 10 year 0% GMAB.  This can be reset every year.  For younger people a 20 year guaranteed double is a good one to use.  I think that this works out to about 3.2%.

[quote=anonymous]

deekay - you say a VA will help with principal protection.

That's generally only for Income Purposes & Death Benefit.

Incorrect.  GMABs are all about principal protection.  I like them more than GMIB benefits because they are a more honest benefit (ie. none of the bullsh*t 5% that GMIB's give)

Personally, I tend to use a 10 year 0% GMAB.  This can be reset every year.  For younger people a 20 year guaranteed double is a good one to use.  I think that this works out to about 3.2%.

[/quote]

Are you serious?  A 20 year Guaranteed double for younger people?

They'd be better off buying a bunch of matchbox cars and California Raisins..

They'd be better off buying a bunch of matchbox cars and California Raisins..

Please explain.  I have no clue as to what you are trying to say.