IMHO the best policy is to be agnostic, and stick your Asset Allocation/Investment Disicipline regardless of what you think about future market conditions.

We can agree on that, but a little tactical asset allocation may be prudent now, just common sense given the market cycle. You've gotten more didactic and it feels patronizing, just my feedback to you personally, because I have admired your thinking here. Don't assume you are cutting any particularly new ground here, if you know what I mean.

ALLREIT

those are the some BLAND and Negative posts.

You honestly think it is impossible for us to understand market strategy and market conditions?  Why would I come on here and post what is on my market letter? 

If I relied on the market strategies of my firm, I would SUCK b/c my firm can't make a profitable trade to save their ass.

It sounds like you've given up on the game.  I'm sorry.

However, you're criticism has no value, as your responses weren't anywhere close to adding to the educational conversation we were having.  If you want to provide a good answer, go ahead.  But we weren't looking for someone who HAS NO idea who we are or what we know to tell us we don't know anything.  

Now I know that we're not in the business of timing the market, but we're sure as hell more likely to make a good call than 99% of people.

I see absolutely no reason why this would be true.   We have no special training that will allow us to time the market any better than a mechanic.

[quote=FreeLunch]

But when I like at a weekly/monthly chart on the S&P - It looks scary.

I'm not trying to call a top, I'm just curious what some of you guys think about the next 6months to a year...

[/quote]

Other than the fact that the market has gone up for 4 years, what exactly is it about the weekly/monthly chart on the S&P that scares you?

Two rules that I always live by:  "never fight the tape"  and "never underestimate the power and duration of an impulse wave."

I have yet to see any market action that indicates that the major uptrend is done.

Anonymous

YOU see absolutely no reason why it would be true for you.  Because YOU have no special training to time the market like a mechanic.

Let me make this clear - I AM NOT trying to time the market.  I am trying to determine a risk/reward ratio for UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE in the next 6 months to a year.

If you have no opinion on this topic, other than an opinion on MY OPINION - Don't Post. 

This topic is not for people who have NO FAITH in their abilities to at LEAST try and make adequate guesses about whats coming in the future.  It's all a frieking guess anyway, as there are too many variables in the future that we don't even know about yet.

If what you are saying is true, then there is no one out there that can adequately make forecasts on the economy & the market.  For every bull theres a bear.  If it wasn't worth talking about - YOU WOULDN'T LISTEN

I have no special training to time the market.  What is your special training.  If I could time the market, I would not be earning money by being a financial advisor.  I would be on my yacht.

Call it what you want, but you are trying to time the market. 

I'll post when I want.

I'm not quite sure how you can have faith in your "adequate guesses".  Please explain how if it is a guess, you can let this have any influence on the advice that you give.  That doesn't sound too smart. 

For every bull theres a bear

That's not remotely close to being true.

I happen to be very good at predicting the market.  Every year, I predict that it will go up and down. 

[quote=FreeLunch]

For every bull theres a bear. 

[/quote]

If that were true, then prices would never move even one tick.

Stocks go up when there are more buyers than sellers.  Stocks go down when there are more sellers than buyers.

[quote=FreeLunch]

Anonymous

YOU see absolutely no reason why it would be true for you. Because YOU have no special training to time the market like a mechanic.

Let me make this clear - I AM NOT trying to time the market. I am trying to determine a risk/reward ratio for UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE in the next 6 months to a year.

If you have no opinion on this topic, other than an opinion on MY OPINION - Don’t Post.

This topic is not for people who have NO FAITH in their abilities to at LEAST try and make adequate guesses about whats coming in the future. It’s all a frieking guess anyway, as there are too many variables in the future that we don’t even know about yet.

If what you are saying is true, then there is no one out there that can adequately make forecasts on the economy & the market. For every bull theres a bear. If it wasn’t worth talking about - YOU WOULDN’T LISTEN

[/quote]



Ha, have you ever even seen a bear market? You sound like a wet-behind-the-ears kid! Don’t worry about tomorrow or 6 months from now or even five years from now. You ARE attempting to time the market when you talk short-term, like you are. Think long-term and it really doesn’t matter.



What the “market” does really doesn’t make a difference in anything, anyway. What matters is what you/your clients own does.



Come back and talk in 15 years or so…or at least stand over my grave. Then, you won’t be so moist behind the ears and maybe you’ll have some experience to know how silly your babble was back in 2007.

[quote=FreeLunch]You honestly think it is impossible for us to
understand market strategy and market conditions?  Why would I
come on here and post what is on my market letter? 

If I relied on the market strategies of my firm, I would SUCK b/c my firm can't make a profitable trade to save their ass. [/quote]

And you can? If understoond your original question, you're working from the assuption that a profitable market strategy is possible.

[quote]

It sounds like you've given up on the game.  I'm sorry.

However, you're criticism has no value, as your responses weren't anywhere close to adding to the educational conversation we were having.  If you want to provide a good answer, go ahead.  But we weren't looking for someone who HAS NO idea who we are or what we know to tell us we don't know anything.  

[/quote]

Telling you that you don't know anything about the future could be the most valuable insight in this thread.

You guys obviously have no insight.

Go back to my original question.   What do you guys look for in the next 6 months to a Year.

I apologize if you do not think it is a fun issue to talk about.

And yes I have seen a bear market.  I began my investing for my personal portfolio in 2001.  You do the math.  I have seen a bear market and I know the reasons why they occur.

Call me what you want, but you obviously have nothing valueable to add.  If you did, you wouldn't be so scared about making a post where other people might disagree with you.

That's the problem.  You guys are too Scared to even make an educated guess, b/c you don't want to be judged by the others on this post.  I am not trying to time the market, I'm trying to see what some of you think about where our market is right now.

It doesn't require specialized knowledge to have an opinion - I mean really.

Get a Grip - You have made more assumptions about me, but refuse to make assumptions about the markets.  Hypocritcal.

Managed Money

Thanks for your Investing 101. 

- My response that for every "Bull there's a bear"  is obviously wrong if you take it out of content.  My point is, Markets wouldn't be efficient if you didn't have people taking both sides of the fence.

[quote=AllREIT]

And you can? If understoond your original question, you’re working
from the assuption that a profitable market strategy is possible.

…

Telling you that you don’t know anything about the future could be the most valuable insight in this thread.

[quote]

Profitable trading strategies are not only possible, they're easy to construct, and you don't have to know anything about the future to trade profitably.




[/quote]

[quote=FreeLunch]

Managed Money

Thanks for your Investing 101. 

- My response that for every "Bull there's a bear"  is obviously wrong if you take it out of content.  My point is, Markets wouldn't be efficient if you didn't have people taking both sides of the fence.

[/quote]

People don't take both sides of the fence equally, and markets aren't efficient.

EXACTLY

Market's aren't efficient.  That is why every day, there is opportunity.  And that is why IT IS possible to take advantage of an inefficient marketplace.

It is possible to discover the next bull-market and it doesn't take a damn rocket-scientist.

None of you have said what you think yet.  Managed Money - Do you really think that none of the managers of your SMA account aren't looking AHEAD?  What do you think they are doing?  After all, equities do trade on FUTURE EARNINGS potential & if they didn't, Forward P/Es would not be a valuable tool at all?

Don't you think that The Consumer Staple stocks trading at 2X Forward earnings gives ANY INSIGHT at all? 

Do you really think there is nothing to take from that?

Go back to my original question.   What do you guys look for in the next 6 months to a Year

Using my cloudy crystal ball:  I think the market is going to go nowhere for a while, bouncing up and down in a moderate range. I don't believe that interest rates are going to be hiked by the Fed unless we see a lot more inflation or unless there is some dramatic change in the Mid East that affects oil.

As we get closer to the election and IF it appears that Hillary and the Dems are going to take control of the economy (God help us all) the market will drop precipitiously as people take their profits and captial gains before we get reamed by tax hikes and soclialized medical care.

That's a good point Dust Bunny.

Don't Vote for Hillary!

[quote=ManagedMoney]
Profitable trading strategies are not only
possible, they’re easy to construct, and you don’t have to know
anything about the future to trade profitably.

[/quote]

If this is so damn easy to do, why are slaving away as an FA?

Here's why I don't think we'll go much lower.

P/Es for Financials and Energy are AROUND 10

- How much Lower can THOSE sectors go?

P/Es for Consumer Staples are trading at around 2X growth rate

- They may not be able to go too much higher

Healthcare stocks haven't done much.  Baby Boomers, Baby Boomers, Baby Boomers..

Technology - I'm just not sure about this sector - I think it goes higher.

Industrial Sector - Still Low P/Es and global industrialization

Consumer Discretionary - The Consumer is not Dead.

I PERSONALLY THINK THE MARKET TIMES OUT - THEN GOES HIGHER.

However, I guess I'm going to have to throw out all the Charts

[quote=FreeLunch]

Here’s why I don’t think we’ll go much lower.

P/Es for Financials and Energy are AROUND 10

- How much Lower can THOSE sectors go?

[/quote]

History tells us they can go lower, especially if the "E" starts eroding in the financials.  Like if there were some major problems in the corporate debt market.  We don't have anything like that developing, do we?

That's a good point Joe.

I guess if the E and the FP/E shrink @ the same time that would be brutal.

But maybe 'ol Ben will start lowering rates and that'll balance things out?