It has long been my position that deflation risk, declining bond yields, and loose monetary policy would dominate the macro environment for some time to come. The work of economists like Lacy Hunt, Gary Shilling, and John Mauldin has long pointed to the continuation of these trends in the wake of the huge balance-sheet recession that did so much damage to both the global economy and the markets in 2008-2009. The enormous equity market rally since 2009 has arguably been greatly prolonged by massive and nearly continuous central bank interventions involving ZIRP, QE, and now NIRP. But recently there have been some signs of the long-sought-after reflation, suggesting (yet again) that the great bond bull market may finally be over. If so, then the recent global reflation trade involving commodity price rallies and surging returns on bank loans, REITs, and other real assets might…
