(Bloomberg) -- A November victory for Donald Trump would be more beneficial for investors holding stocks and Bitcoin relative to his Democratic opponent, while a Kamala Harris presidency would bring slightly more relief to housing costs, according to the latest Bloomberg survey.
The stock market, up about 22% so far in 2024, is more likely to pick up steam under Trump than Harris. Some 38% of 350 Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey respondents see gains accelerating a year from now under the Republican candidate versus 13% under the Democrat.
That said, close to half of the investors expect the market to accelerate or maintain its current strong pace under Harris, and 59% anticipate such performance under Trump.
Elections tend to have limited if any, long-lasting impact on markets. Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Jim Reid noted that 13 of the last 15 U.S. presidents have overseen annualized stock returns of between 10% and 17% during their terms, regardless of their party affiliations.
Stocks also tend to rise more post-election as the uncertainties dissipate. During the last eight elections, the S&P 500 increased an average of 6.6% in the six months after Election Day, compared with a gain of 1.5% six months prior, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Market performance has more to do with economic fundamentals and the earnings outlook than it does with who sits in the White House,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors.
Read: What the U.S. Election Means for Markets
A Harris win is seen as being more positive for potential homebuyers. The average mortgage rate for a 30-year, fixed loan increased to 6.54%, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday, the highest since early August. The median estimate for that rate at the end of a Harris term would be 5.5%, according to survey participants, and 5.9% under Trump.
Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year Treasuries, and are a big factor in housing affordability. Many potential buyers have been stranded on the sidelines in recent years waiting for borrowing costs to come down. Sellers with mortgages at 3% or below, meanwhile, have been reluctant to move and take on more expensive debt.
Read: Homes, Cars, Kids and College Tell Tale of US Middle-Class Dread
Higher house prices and rallying stocks help boost wealth for many Americans. Gold, held by some as a haven asset, has also rallied, gaining about a third so far in 2024.
A year from now, about 57% of the participants taking the survey expect the price of gold to be even higher if Trump wins, compared with 45% who expect that after a Harris victory.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, is expected to rise to a new record above $80,000 by yearend if Trump wins, according to median estimates of those surveyed. The estimate under a Harris win was around $65,000, a drop from Bitcoin’s recent level around $67,000.
The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted Oct. 21-25 among Bloomberg News terminal and online readers worldwide who chose to engage with the survey, and included portfolio managers, economists and retail investors. Terminal users can sign up for future surveys here.
To contact the authors of this story:
Suzanne Woolley in New York at [email protected]
Ye Xie in New York at [email protected]
