November 08 Production Numbers
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ice, I respect your decisions, make no bones about it. Always interested in other points of view.
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The bottom line is this. If I want to charge 3% and fully dislose this to my clients and they agree, then it's a deal. Who can say the client is being wronged? Hell he agreed to it. There is nothing wrong with a 2% overall fee (including fund expenses). I am in business to make money. Profit is the name of the game. My services are not free. As long as all my merhcandise is priced, and fully disclosed, and the client buys my services. I'm o.k. with my pricing structure. Disclosure is the key. The only one disagreeing with this is your self rightous transaction broker who is about to starv for the next 6 mths.90% fee based, but down 20-30% for the month.
20% on client market value (I have a LOT of balanced managed accounts) and perhaps another 10% on clients who I have lost or whom have pulled money out against my advise to wait it out. Thank God for this type of business though. The commission guys here are on suicide watch.I have a nice base of income because of Advisory and C share mf's and L Share annuities. New to Fee business so my hit on the values are minimal as far as income is concerned. All L shares go in on 12 month DCA, which has been somewhat a savior. I'm doing more in tax free's to build on the base recently. However, the transfers are picking up as the prospects I've been calling on since 2001 are wanting a change. Not proud of that, but will not turn anyone away who wants to change advisor's-- and they go directly into Advisory. I have a tremendous $ sitting in mmkts and cd's and as they come due, like this AM, I can put into other revenue generators. 50k 12 month cd came due and put into a 7yr tax free at 5.5% paying 20 per 1000. Several more coming due in the next several months...
I’m 99% transactional and my GDC is up 21% from last year. I have a ton of VA contracts paying me 1% a year.
L shares, c shares, wrap and managed $$ I count as fee based, and I’m damn glad I have them. Makes you lazy though!
Judging by how the 'money managers" have performed I can't see paying them for something I can do myself, why punch their meal ticket with my clients $$$ I would rather keep the cash in their account.
Nolt talking about anybody but myself … AGE training wants you to be a non thinking managed money drone my trust in them blew up when they pushed the FNM. S & T series out as the greatest thing since sliced bread. Two months later Grannies acount goes POOF! I dont need a CFA to destroy an account. I can do that myself.
Nothing Magical about 8000? That was new closing low on the DOW, after weeks of bouncing off 8000. That will usually create a lot technical selling, and psycological damage. Looks like it happened. Just a number yes, but it matters, just like it will if we dont hold 5000.[/quote][quote=Morphius] [quote=fritz]… and the 500K guys will struggle to do 200K next year, even if we stay around 8000 on the DOW, if we break than all the above numbers are way to high. [/quote]
We broke 8,000 on the Dow just hours before you wrote that, with a close of 7,997. It may be ugly, and it may be a long time since we were below that level, but there’s nothing magical about 8000.
All that technical selling and psychological damage really plagued the market today, which probably explains why it jumped 6.5% to close back over that magical number again!
I have no idea what the short term will bring in this market, but the number on one artificially created index isn't nearly the market driver that the technicians would have us believe it to be.
Nothing Magical about 8000? That was new closing low on the DOW, after weeks of bouncing off 8000. That will usually create a lot technical selling, and psycological damage. Looks like it happened. Just a number yes, but it matters, just like it will if we dont hold 5000.[/quote][quote=fritz][quote=Morphius] [quote=fritz]… and the 500K guys will struggle to do 200K next year, even if we stay around 8000 on the DOW, if we break than all the above numbers are way to high. [/quote]
We broke 8,000 on the Dow just hours before you wrote that, with a close of 7,997. It may be ugly, and it may be a long time since we were below that level, but there’s nothing magical about 8000.
All that technical selling and psychological damage really plagued the market today, which probably explains why it jumped 6.5% to close back over that magical number again!
I have no idea what the short term will bring in this market, but I the number on one artificially created index isn't nearly the market driver that the technicians would have us believe it to be.
Agreed..is is upsurd to put any or much impact on the DOW, or maybe even the S&P 500. The couple points which have came recently tell the story....25% of S&P stocks under 10.00 per share (day after crash in '87 only 37 stocks, even with DOW at 4000+ then) and 40% of the S&P 500 stocks do not even qualify to be in the index on a market cap basis. DOW is not telling the story of whats going on. Saw Fid Magellan fund was down 60%+ as of 11-20-08..That is brutal, 50% worst than the so called market (DOW)..only two sets of back to back up days since Sept is a nice side note.
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When we do recover, wouldn’t a day like today tell you what will really move - commodities, reits, international - the stuff that has gotten brutalized really seems to pop on the few up days we’ve had. I hear “Buy US” more and more but you have to wonder if that will be where it’s at.
Good news about bear markets - you get paid the same for forced sales of stock relative to the buys. Unfortunately I had more of the former than the latter today. And unfortunately, no clue if that cash wil re-enter the market.Speaking in terms of “November 2008 Production Numbers”, it’s a good thing no one here is compensated on the basis of technical chart analysis.
[quote=Gordon Gekko]When we do recover, wouldn’t a day like today tell you what will really move - commodities, reits, international - the stuff that has gotten brutalized really seems to pop on the few up days we’ve had. I hear “Buy US” more and more but you have to wonder if that will be where it’s at.
Good news about bear markets - you get paid the same for forced sales of stock relative to the buys. Unfortunately I had more of the former than the latter today. And unfortunately, no clue if that cash wil re-enter the market. [/quote] I am always suspicious of late move like this on options expiration. There were 4 times as many puts as calls outstanding going into today, which can lead to artificially rallies in which stocks "need" to move higher to avoid market makers taking it up the a*s. Next week thanksgiving so maybe we can hold onto gains, but think this was a fluke today. Time will tell. Buddie of mine has had 11MM Acat out from a 26 MM book since mid october, some were 50%+ in cash and they still left with no phone calls..He was pissed after the first 5MM or so, now pretty much laughing. He says the brightside is less phone calls going forward.fritz,
Sounds like your Buddie might be living at your house soon. That is worth a laugh.
The phone that will need to ringing is on the other end of the cold call he will need to make. Him and me both! ACATs not a problem, just this 50% market retrenchment thing. I sold my few shares of dxd yesterday and bought BAC. That can only go down another $11, where's the risk? (You can't see it but I am winking)
I think a lot of folks dont realize the impact that depreciation of assets will have on fee based next year. A lot of us are smoothed, in other words, while the client is billed quarterly we are credited monthly. So right now we are getting most of our fees based on August/September values. In January, when we start getting fees based on Oct Nov Dec values, it is going to be devastating.
There is a lot of rebuilding to be done, and an awful lot of guys are going to shake out.
I about 50/50 fee based// transactional..for the most part almost all of my clients have the attitude of "on the next rally" I want out of the market. If it ever comes some will probably change their tune, but if most do it I am going to starting at a huge hole. Almost laughing at the thought of meeting the manager for my business plan for 2009. Think they always have a nack for making you feel like you are the only one not really ramping it up, but this time I know he is full of sh*t, but still have to put food on the table and think it is going to be brutal next year. Is anyone cold calling out there?, couple trainees only at our place that call all day (allegedly), and they are getting ripped a new one from what they tell me. Guess I am saying what do you do to rebuild the $$$ damage and the psychological damage people have suffered??I think a lot of folks dont realize the impact that depreciation of assets will have on fee based next year. A lot of us are smoothed, in other words, while the client is billed quarterly we are credited monthly. So right now we are getting most of our fees based on August/September values. In January, when we start getting fees based on Oct Nov Dec values, it is going to be devastating.
There is a lot of rebuilding to be done, and an awful lot of guys are going to shake out.