[quote=bankrep1] [quote=NASD Newbie]

Are you saying that you believe that a VA will provide enough growth to fund the retirement of a 55 year old engineer?

[/quote]

At 55 the objective is no longer growth in most cases the objetive is guaranteed retirement income. The only tool that can guarantee a 5% withdraw for the clients entire life and their spouses life is a VA with a living benefit rider GWB, if the client still needed growth at 55, my advice would be not to retire they need to save more money


[/quote]

At 55 the guy is five to ten years away from retirment--and you're going to put him in a VA designed to give him a 5% withdrawal?

He has ten years to go before he wants to withdraw anything--where do you have him now?

How about a VA with a GMIB, that allows him to lock in th GWB at 60 or 65 and also lock in any gains between now and 65.   He can choose 5% guaranteed GMIB year over year, or his account value. When your ready to retire, we’ll look at what is worth more and base your income off that.



I only answered your original question that way because most engineers I meet with do retire around 55.

[quote=bankrep1]How about a VA with a GMIB, that allows him to lock in th GWB at 60 or 65 and also lock in any gains between now and 65.   He can choose 5% guaranteed GMIB year over year, or his account value. When your ready to retire, we'll look at what is worth more and base your income off that.

I only answered your original question that way because most engineers I meet with do retire around 55.[/quote]

What happens to him if he buys what you're suggesting and we experience 20% inflation?

Earlier you said the market will not suffere a 50% correction--while talking about a 35% correction in 2001-03.  Are you saying that that was the last major correction?  How do you know?  Do you have a secret ring you got in a box of Cracker Jack?

Are you saying we will have 20% inflation and down markets for a 10 year period? That cannot exist as the earnings growth from inflation alone will drive stock prices higher

The 35% correction lasted all of two weeks. The value investors quickly jumped in, this was also shortly after 9/11.



Of course we will have more corrections. I know we will experience several corrections over the years as the market makes it’s upward path.

[quote=bankrep1]Are you saying we will have 20% inflation and down markets for a 10 year period? That cannot exist as the earnings growth from inflation alone will drive stock prices higher[/quote]

Oh, you believe that EPS are a hedge against inflation--are you sure?

You also believe that the market will reward higher earnings with higher prices to retain the PE ratio.

Do you believe that PE ratios cannot be lower?  Is it possible that a company could be earning $5 per share and be trading at only two or three times earnings?  Is that possible?

Of course. I am using your stupid scenarios. If something costs $1 and now costs $1.20 cents the company made more money than it did in the past and so did every other company that supplied the goods. Hence the stock price would rise.



This would be true even if stocks trade at a PE of 1 times earnings

Why all the doom and gloom? The summer is often shaky, I think we are going to have a fantastic 3rd quarter!

[quote=bankrep1]Of course. I am using your stupid scenarios. If something costs $1 and now costs $1.20 cents the company made more money than it did in the past and so did every other company that supplied the goods. Hence the stock price would rise.

This would be true even if stocks trade at a PE of 1 times earnings[/quote]

Stocks rise because the earnings rise--it's that easy?

There has never been a time when stocks fell even though earning rose?  Has that ever happened?

Has the business cycle been repealed?

[quote=bankrep1]
Why all the doom and gloom? The summer is often shaky, I think we are going to have a fantastic 3rd quarter![/quote]

How many shaky summers have you witnessed in order to have such certainty--do you suppose legends like Peter Lynch would think you're naive?

[quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1]
Why all the doom and gloom? The summer is often shaky, I think we are going to have a fantastic 3rd quarter![/quote]

How many shaky summers have you witnessed in order to have such certainty--do you suppose legends like Peter Lynch would think you're naive?

[/quote]

Let me ask one more thing.  Do you believe that people who are naive can possibly be good advisors?

Is it ever appropriate for an advisor to tell their client to sell everything and go into cash--to roll CDs at a bank for serveral years?

[quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1] Why all the doom and gloom? The summer is often shaky, I think we are going to have a fantastic 3rd quarter![/quote]

How many shaky summers have you witnessed in order to have such certainty–do you suppose legends like Peter Lynch would think you’re naive?

[quote=NASD Newbie] [quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1] Why all the doom and gloom? The summer is often shaky, I think we are going to have a fantastic 3rd quarter![/quote]

How many shaky summers have you witnessed in order to have such certainty–do you suppose legends like Peter Lynch would think you’re naive?

[/quote]

Let me ask one more thing. Do you believe that people who are naive can possibly be good advisors?

Is it ever appropriate for an advisor to tell their client to sell everything and go into cash–to roll CDs at a bank for serveral years?

One last thing:



You state someone’s IRA portfolio could fall from 700K to 300K,then what? but you see no value in using a VA inside of an IRA, you clearly stated it is a bad idea, could you please explain your rationale. I have been kind enough to answer your questions, now answer that one?

[quote=bankrep1] [quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1] Why all the doom and gloom? The summer is often shaky, I think we are going to have a fantastic 3rd quarter![/quote]

How many shaky summers have you witnessed in order to have such certainty--do you suppose legends like Peter Lynch would think you're naive?

[/quote]

I am not trying to maximize returns, I would never compare what I do with a money manager, i was just stating i am bullish[/quote]

And all I am doing is asking you to make a case for being bullish--other than knowing that if you're not what you are doing is malpractice.

[quote=bankrep1]

Your either in or out, trying to time the market is impossible. I am a firm believer of that and can show you countless supporters much smarter than I who agree. Check out the folks at DFA for opinions of some of the smartest minds in finance, I am sure though NASD that your knowledge, your tenure will prove to be wiser than some of the greatest minds in finance. Your probably ignorant enough to believe that your in that group or should be. The truth is your a failed broker, you didn't make it so you took a job that is safe and secure nothing wrong with it, just don't stand on your soapbox thinking you know everything.

[/quote]

You cannot imagine how it saddens intelligent people to see writing such as that.

Count the times the you're mistake was made.

Stupidity has no room in this business, yet there it is in the banks selling a VA regardless of what the client wants or needs.

[quote=NASD Newbie] [quote=bankrep1] [quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1] Why all the doom and gloom? The summer is often shaky, I think we are going to have a fantastic 3rd quarter![/quote]

How many shaky summers have you witnessed in order to have such certainty–do you suppose legends like Peter Lynch would think you’re naive?

[/quote] I am not trying to maximize returns, I would never compare what I do with a money manager, i was just stating i am bullish[/quote]

And all I am doing is asking you to make a case for being bullish–other than knowing that if you’re not what you are doing is malpractice.

[quote=bankrep1]

Your either in or out, trying to time the market is impossible. I am a firm believer of that and can show you countless supporters much smarter than I who agree. 

[/quote]

So, do you believe that the people who subscribe to expensive timing services are simply not as smart as you?

Is it market timing to sell your entire position and stay in cash for several years?  I always thought that market timing was a scheme to attempt to take advantage of short term moves--not an attempt to sit out a market crash.  Am I wrong?

Have you ever heard the phrase, "Cash is King?"

Is it ever appropriate to recommend that a client be 100% in cash?

Somewhere you said that you do not try to maximize returns--does that sound like a good reason to hire you?

read this smartie pants



One last thing:



You state someone’s IRA portfolio could fall from 700K to 300K,then what?

but you see no value in using a VA inside of an IRA, you clearly stated it is a

bad idea, could you please explain your rationale. I have been kind enough

to answer your questions, now answer that one?

[quote=bankrep1]

Earnings are what drive the market, it's all about earnings

[/quote]

So you're a pure fundamentalist.  Have you ever heard of earnings going down?  How about not being as good as expected?

What do you suppose would happen to a stock with a PE ratio of, say, 60 if earnings are reported at, say, $2 and the street was anticipating $2.02?

How about the adage, "The market cannot climb a wall of worry," does that mean anything to you?