hey 18 more minutes!

A long weekend at that...daughter is at the grandparents to hopefully ride on the big green combine. Wife heading to Indy to shop and me..well...mow the yard..and hopefully catch Alabama vs whoever football game with beer.

Canadian Thanksgiving ( Long Weekend ) .....Turkey , Pumpkin Pie and family. Maybe a couple of Gennys and a few Bushmills , well not maybe for sure.

It is suppose to snow 1 to 2 feet. I am going fishing in the mountains the and try to relax! Let it snow!

we havent seen nothing yet. next day to a month…bond market dislocation and the BIG market crash.

I'm looking forward to re-visiting this prediction in a month and see how close you are.  My prediction:  You'll be a long way from the stadium.

itink it will be all right in the short term as long as the world govs have big checkbook.

Just let us know when you buy back in to the market ( 7001).

we havent seen nothing yet. next day to a month…bond market dislocation and the BIG market crash.

[quote=fastcar]we havent seen nothing yet. next day to a month…bond market dislocation and the BIG market crash.

[quote=Indyone][quote=fastcar]we havent seen nothing yet. next day to a month…bond market dislocation and the BIG market crash.

I think the funny thing is how some of the people that are predicting Dow 6000 were the same ones calling for Dow 20,000.

Sort of off topic, but not really…
Had a new client ACAT in around end of Dec last year. Didnt have a real plan, and there was no rhyme or reason to what he owned - a few agency bonds, a market neutral mutual funds, 2 VA’s, a shitload of principal protected notes tied to the Russell, S&P, etc. and a bunch of bank preferreds that were bought as new issues. The whole portfolio looked commission driven to me. (not a comment on the VA’s so lets not start)

So he has a bit ove a million and feels he cant afford to take big risks, understands when i talk to him about asset allocation, protecting assets from loss of purchasing power. Pretty intelligent guy, although way too emotional.

Some time around February, with the Dow at around 12,500, he calls me and tells me that he knows a lot of people who are very smart, and from the conversations he has had with them he thinks that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg and the Dow is going to 8000. After i told him that he was an idiot (in a nice way) and that he needed to stop listening to his friends, the conversation ended. But over the next month or so, he sold most all of the pfds, moved all his annuity money to the Money Market , then decided he was worried about the insurance companies AND money market funds and surrendered his annuities, sold everything but the Principal Protected notes, and put everything into Treasuries and CD’s where they now sit.
I was shaking my head saying to myself, i need to fire this guy.

I never did, but dont know how to advise him going forward. I know even a clock is right twice a day, but this guy was so dead on, it wasnt funny, or actually, in a perverse way, it was. Move over Harry Dent!!!

I have actually spoken to several people lately that saved themselves from freefall by accident (for example, one guy that owns a law firm switched 401K providors 1 year ago - just never got around to re-investing the money, so he let it sit in MMKT in the new 401K - and when it just kept going down, he just let it sit there - lucky bastard). Then there are the people that got out way sooner than any advisor would have recommended, and ended up saving themselves. Problem is, many of these people will either miss the whole ride back up, and be at the same place as the rest of us, or jump back in on a sucker’s rally and get nailed.

Hate to use the analogy, but its like playing blackjack - always better to be lucky than smart!

Ain't that the truth.