I’d like to see the app as well.



Back to Alyssa Milano though…



Jason don’t you know that you can’t beat the market with your fancy models? As an advisor, you are supposed to put your money in the hands of EXPERIENCED money managers, or create great ALLOCATION models out of index funds and ETFs.



I don’t care what you’ve done the past few years… you can’t REPLICATE that. Your clients will leave in the future.



The markets are soooooooooooo EFFICIENT.



Sorry guys, had to bring this argument back. I am getting absolutely NO work done today.

I’d like to see the app as well.

Back to Alyssa Milano though…

Jason don’t you know that you can’t beat the market with your fancy models? As an advisor, you are supposed to put your money in the hands of EXPERIENCED money managers, or create great ALLOCATION models out of index funds and ETFs.

I don’t care what you’ve done the past few years… you can’t REPLICATE that. Your clients will leave in the future.

The markets are soooooooooooo EFFICIENT.

Sorry guys, had to bring this argument back. I am getting absolutely NO work done today.

I’m not getting jack done today either - so off to the golf course.  Have a nice weekend everyone.

[quote=Moraen]I’d like to see the app as well. Back to Alyssa Milano though… Jason don’t you know that you can’t beat the market with your fancy models? As an advisor, you are supposed to put your money in the hands of EXPERIENCED money managers, or create great ALLOCATION models out of index funds and ETFs. I don’t care what you’ve done the past few years… you can’t REPLICATE that. Your clients will leave in the future. The markets are soooooooooooo EFFICIENT. Sorry guys, had to bring this argument back. I am getting absolutely NO work done today.

XBOX Live?

Moraen,

If and when you decide to man-up and get on XBox Live, we are going to have an in-depth chat about this. 

Or a friend…

You can’t be much younger than me.

U said I was too cool… I figure we are similar ages, we can be friends…

I’m over thirty. Ice and I are friends. I like XBOX. I have a wife and kid. That’s why I play XBOX. Problem is, I have a wife and kid. Hard to play XBOX.



Ice’s wife still let’s him do stuff.



But that’s all right. Soon, I will begin “studying” late at night, while she is asleep. I’m all about it Ice. Next week starts school, then I have an excuse to be up late.

Jason - I'd like to see the app that you mention. Please post when you get a chance.

[quote=Moraen] I’m over thirty. Ice and I are friends. I like XBOX. I have a wife and kid. That’s why I play XBOX. Problem is, I have a wife and kid. Hard to play XBOX.



Ice’s wife still let’s him do stuff.



But that’s all right. Soon, I will begin “studying” late at night, while she is asleep. I’m all about it Ice. Next week starts school, then I have an excuse to be up late.[/quote]



Hopefully ICE understood that my comment was just a joke. It was more self-depricating humor than anything…as in “I’m married with kids so can’t imagine having time to play XBox”. I should have used one of those goofy little emoticons…like this , or maybe this



It’s funny, one of my good friends at Jones used to talk about XBox all the time. I went to his wedding a few years back, and since then the XBox talk slowed a bit, he had a little girl about 6 months ago, and now I haven’t heard him talk about it once.   

…and by the way ICE, you keep playing XBox, you’ll have no shot at that kid.

[quote=B24] …and by the way ICE, you keep playing XBox, you’ll have no shot at that kid.



[/quote]



Whenever my wife “lets” me play. She watches for about twenty minutes and then goes and puts on lingerie. Next thing I know, I could care less that an eight your old just sniped me in Halo.



He’ll have a kid before he knows it.

Sorry guys, but I don’t think kids are my “thing.”

[quote=howie]

Jason - I'd like to see the app that you mention. Please post when you get a chance.

Any update?

[quote=chief123]Any update?

[/quote]

Will be done by Friday.

Alright - so here’s another update:

Switching to excel with no
macros was a little more difficult than I originally thought.  I did
this so advisors could see the minor changes I made to Mebane’s
algorithm.  I have it done and also did the tweaking of using actual
funds advisors could use.  This shortened the backtest and changed the
#‘s from using raw index data.

Here’s the yearly numbers for the past 10 years:

Strategy
1998 - 15.17%
1999 - 13.52%
2000 - 0.92%
2001 - 1.79%
2002 - (1.73%)
2003 - 22.97%
2004 - 6.37%
2005 - 38.51%
2006 - 10.26%
2007 - 14.44%
2008 - 3.09%
2009 ytd as of 7/31 - 3.02%

This
is using on 6 asset classes, which lowers the return potential but
makes curve fitting less an issue.  For fun - I plugged in the NAS 100
(which is not otherwise used) and the 1999, 2003 and 2009 returns all
nearly doubled.  That, is fitting (somewhat), and the excercise was
only to improve Mebane’s returns - which was done.

The mechanics
used were a simple momentum ranking system to dynamically change the
position size to favor the single asset class with the best
intermediate term momentum.  The end result is a super easy tactical
allocation program that would beat 95%+ of supposedly smart,
professional fund/sma managers the past 10 years with only 10 minutes
trading per month.

I’ll publish over at my site by Friday in the
’free stuff’ section.  Any questions or tweaks people would like to see
just let me know.

Jason, how would something like this perform during an extended bull-market run, like the 80’s/90’s?  It is obviously a great program during extremely turbulent/secular bear markets, but would it underperform over long positive periods?