Market Sucks
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Is it possible that, because there is SO much cash sitting on the sidelines, that when this crap eventually subsides (in like 50 years…kidding), that the markets will really take off?
Any takers on this?Yes…I will take that bet and I don’t gamble. I invest. At some point Cash will need to move ( sooner or later ) and not in 50 years
man, I just checked out a client of mine, fairly aggressive, down 20% or 105k. That makes my stomach turn. American world g&I down 25%!!
[quote=ezmoney]man, I just checked out a client of mine, fairly aggressive, down 20% or 105k. That makes my stomach turn. American world g&I down 25%!!
[/quote] How's the new Benz? Maybe you should drive by the client's house a few times for shits and giggles. Seriously, a lot of funds are down around there if they've got international exposure. It sucks. What sucks even more is that people don't want to talk much about it.You might be right, i was just echoing the opinion of the money manager. But from all i;ve read, there are an awful lot of people who still havent moved from the rice paddies to the cities.Sportsfreak … on a persoanl note , I am not as confident in the growth in China as we have seen in the past. In addition , politics are always a Wild Card in China. I agree that they ( Chinese ) have a vested interest in maintaining the staus quo BUT with their government it does pose some unique challenges.
snags, my opinion is its not a good time to be reallocating out of equity. Besides which if he is 59, he either needs an awful lot of assets or a decent amount of growth.
I guess you also have to look at the client you are dealing with. Maybe ask him the question (unless you already know the answer) - what would make you feel worse, losing more money, or selling stocks today and seeing a market rally next week. Then he makes the decision.\ Reality is its a tough call, i;ve struggled with it myself, but i gotta say, the pessimism on this thread is very encouraging. The air in my branch is so thick you could cut it with a knife. This is what happens at market bottoms. And it was very encouraging that with all the crap going on about Lehman and WAMU, the market went from down 150 to up 150 in short order. (although the breadth wasnt so great) Just my humble opinion.[quote=snaggletooth]Is it possible that, because there is SO much cash sitting on the sidelines, that when this crap eventually subsides (in like 50 years…kidding), that the markets will really take off?
Any takers on this?[/quote]Precisely. Look at the sentiments being expressed on here. Do you think folks can be much more pessimistic?
[quote=HymanRoth] [quote=snaggletooth]Is it possible that, because there is SO much cash sitting on the sidelines, that when this crap eventually subsides (in like 50 years…kidding), that the markets will really take off?
Any takers on this?[/quote]Precisely. Look at the sentiments being expressed on here. Do you think folks can be much more pessimistic?
[/quote] Much more pessimistic? I don't know, I hope not. However, if it just goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on, that won't be fun either.
OK so for those of you who think the time has come, what are you buying? What funds, stocks, etf’s ideas, sectors, etc.
Some nibbling in beaten down materials and commodities (steel, potash, etc) but very selectively, the leaders of the past tend to not lead when the bear goes back to the cave. Buying healthcare, mid cap, Financials (big banks), consumer, and UUP (Bullish USDollar ETF)[quote=Sportsfreakbob]OK so for those of you who think the time has come, what are you buying? What funds, stocks, etf’s ideas, sectors, etc.
Some nibbling in beaten down materials and commodities (steel, potash, etc) but very selectively, the leaders of the past tend to not lead when the bear goes back to the cave. Buying healthcare, mid cap, Financials (big banks), consumer, and UUP (Bullish USDollar ETF)[/quote]I started picking up some large cap tech today.
Staying away from banks right now, other than one large bank in Texas. Too much toxic waste still on their balance sheets.
[quote=Sportsfreakbob]No Primo, i said for those of you who think the time has come TO BUY.
[/quote] I know, I heard you. I am buying t-bills. Flight to quality will drive yields down hard. This mess has a ways to go IMO. Did a review today with one of my biggest clients. 80 eq/20 fi on 12/31/2007. Down 2.2% ytd, of course he does not own 80% equities anymore, hasn't for a long while. It is always time to buy something.[quote=Sportsfreakbob]OK so for those of you who think the time has come, what are you buying? What funds, stocks, etf’s ideas, sectors, etc.
Some nibbling in beaten down materials and commodities (steel, potash, etc) but very selectively, the leaders of the past tend to not lead when the bear goes back to the cave. Buying healthcare, mid cap, Financials (big banks), consumer, and UUP (Bullish USDollar ETF)[/quote] I've come to find out that I don't know much about anything, but I personally don't think financials will be good for several years or more. Back in the tech bubble and crash, it took like 4 years for the new tech companies to come along with new products to make the sector look good again. Where are financials going to derive their revenues from? It will be years before their "new" products come about that bring the sector back again.I put some clients money into DUG…to counter my clients exposure to xom etc…I personally have been calling other advisors and gaging THEIR desire to be in this market/industry. Good way to pick up some assets by buying a book when the value and the confidence of an advisor and is down. Someone said we need to act like businesss owners…EXPANSION…
I like the tried and true method of DCAing money over 12 months...for new money.Where are financials going to derive their revenues from?
At some point all these toxic assets will start to move again. At that point, all of these write downs will come back on the balance sheet as earnings as the assets appreciate in value. The million dollar question is when.For those of you who survive this, a market like this is good training and valuable experience. Just don’t become part of the problem.
Take a look at your accounts. Pit in your stomach huh? That's the bad news. Here's the good news: It's no different for any other financial advisor, broker, or RIA in your town. Get on the phone and start prospecting! Hard times build big books! Smile and dial! Forget about all the problems, you are the answer! And the only way people are going to get that messege is if you tell'em. What are you waiting for?I live in a town of roughly 10,000 people that is home to an independent firm that sells fixed and equtiy indexed annuities exclusively, and naturally, we have many mutual clients.
Right now, I'd imagine they're earning 4-5% on their money and will seldom exceed that, BUT their principal is "safe." Of course, they pit my and the indie firm's statements against each other, and for the past year or so, I've lost hands-down. I realize we're talking apples to oranges here in terms of investments, but most of the folks I deal with have to be taught what a mutual fund is before we open the account, so all they know is that their money is going down and they don't like it. How would you address this ongoing challenge to compete with the indie annuity sellers?Yeah, but we’ve got that state guaranty fund that covers up to $100k per account, and those guys open numerous accounts and watch the balances closely. If they get to $100k, they take out the free withdrawal and open another annuity contract.
Are annuities the way to go from here?