(Bloomberg) - If the U.S. ends up with a divided government it could mean limited fiscal stimulus, capped increases in bond yields and dampened inflation expectations, while risk assets get a boost, according to BlackRock Investment Institute.
Some fiscal relief “looks possible” in the near term, but the size and scope will be more modest than it would have been with a united Democratic Party government, the BlackRock team wrote in a note published Nov. 7.
Democrat Joe Biden won the presidency and his party retained control of the House, but appears unlikely to take control of the Senate. The prospect of divided government has driven down yields and the environment bodes well for credit and growth companies, according to the note.
Developments point to a return to a near-term market environment dominated by “low rates, a hunt for yield and growth stocks,” it said.
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The global financial market had a volatile week as investors awaited the outcome of U.S. elections. Tech and health-care stocks helped the S&P 500 Index gain 7.3% last week, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields retreated by about five basis points. The greenback weakened.
BlackRock Investment Institute expects tech and health-care companies, as well as quality and large-cap stocks, to perform well under a Biden presidency with a divided government. Assets in emerging markets may benefit from improved trade sentiment, especially in Asia outside of Japan, it said.
