Skip Schweiss, Managing Director of Advisor Advocacy, TD Ameritrade Institutional
"I'd call this the biggest presidential election shocker since "Dewey beats Truman" in 1948. Markets don't like uncertainty and this election result was clearly not expected.”
“Many people have asked me how this might impact the Department of Labor’s Conflict of Interest Rule. The rule was finalized in April, and was effective in June, with a compliance date in April 2017. I do not see anything changing here, but as we all learned last night, forecasts don't always work out. Rolling back this rule would take an enormous effort - perhaps an entirely new regulatory process. It wouldn’t be easy, it would take time and I doubt the DOL rule is the highest priority for the incoming administration. So while it’s possible the DOL rule gets reversed, I just don’t think it’s probable.”
Albert Brenner, Director of Asset Allocation Strategy at People's United Wealth Management
"The market was anticipating a Clinton victory. Volatility may stay elevated as investors rebalance portfolios from the 'Clinton' portfolio to the 'Trump' portfolio. Any near-term market downturns are not likely to last.
Although markets generally prefer divided government in Washington, the incoming Republican administration and Congress may prove to be the exception to the rule.
Policy uncertainties will prevail and may unsettle markets until policies are clear.
But equity markets are likely to respond favorably to the unified government’s policies as they are likely to stimulate the economy provided (and this is a significant caveat) that trade policy is moderate and fiscal policy does not balloon the budget deficit.
Differences within the Republican party should make extreme policy initiatives unlikely and increase the likelihood of bi-partisan cooperation on key tax and economic issues."
David Knoch, President, 1st Global
“The market doesn’t like uncertainty and I think we have a high likelihood of persistent volatility heading into the end of the year, but in the long-run time horizon of our clients, we’re going to be ok, that’s what makes America, our democracy and our people so special. Financial advisors will need to coach their clients through this volatility and do what they can to keep their attention on the ‘big picture.’ People often focus on investment performance and product choice, but uncertain times are when financial advisors provide the most value to their clients: keeping them from getting caught up in their emotional reactions which leads to hasty decision-making and losing sight of their long-term objectives.”
Stephan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer, Deutsche Asset Management
Trump’s unpredictability and his lack of political experience are more than enough reason to approach the coming months with some caution. Media coverage is likely to remain negative. Even if he were to follow through on only half of his vigorous campaign promises, this could cause considerable unrest.
Despite that, we do not think that investors should lose their nerve. Let us not forget that the key constant in Trump’s election campaign was to continually surprise the public. It is entirely possible that after his election, he could in fact surprise markets on the positive side.
Our hopes are based on Trump’s pragmatism, his ability to adapt and his generally limited political allegiance. There is a chance that he could allow the political veterans in Congress to pass a fairly classical Republican campaign program.
Nigel Green, founder and Chief Executive of deVere Group
“Savvy investors will know and capitalize on the fact that the shock result will, despite the recovery of the markets, still create some key buying opportunities due to Trump’s protectionist rhetoric during his campaigning.
“They will also appreciate that under Trump’s policies some sectors will do significantly better than others. The mining and oil sectors are, for example, likely to rally as he has promised to limit environmental laws.”
“Mr Trump has also been bold on promising tax cuts for high net worth individuals and corporations in the hope of attracting investment, jobs and talent.
“With all of this in mind, it can be expected that investors in the U.S. and around the world will be now urgently reviewing and rebalancing their portfolios and personal financial strategies, in order to take full financial advantage of the surprise Trump victory.”
Rob Brown, Chief Investment Officer at United Capital
Here in the U.S., we benefit from: the stability of our governmental structure, an improving U.S. economy, and the inherent inventiveness and creativity of the American people. Our government is built on the basis of checks and balances between five key components: The White House, House of Representatives, Senate, Supreme Court, and the state Governorships. Last night’s election left four of these five components virtually unchanged from their composition just six months ago. Only the White House changed parties. This inherent stability, and slow pace of change, mean that the introduction of new policies and directions can only unfold after due consideration and with the general, broad-based agreement of all branches of government. This structure is a unique and powerful strength of the American system.”
Rob Foregger, co-founder of NextCapital
"The new DoL Fiduciary rule, unquestionably, is in the cross-hairs of the incoming Trump White House and a Republican controlled Congress. I would not be shocked if the new Rule is included in Trump's one hundred-day plan. "
While there is little debate that over-regulation is a legitimate concern in the financial services industry, and the broader American economy, the Fiduciary Rule is one of the good ones."
"Specifically, unlike Dodd-Frank, the new DoL Fiduciary Rule is laser focused on delivering a best interest standard of care to all Americans saving for Retirement. This is a Rule specifically addressing the $7 trillion in defined contribution plans and the $7 trillion in IRAs-- together this sensibly protects more than 40% of all financial assets of American investors."
Javier Paz, Senior Analyst, Wealth Management at Aite Group
There is a potential for a simplification of tax policy, something that both parties and multiple candidates over the past few elections have discussed. Will this be a President Trump priority? Possibly, but we think he will look to solidify his support in Congress through selective repeal of Obamacare and let tax policy reform take a back seat.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates during the Trump presidency, something that could at some point lead the newly elected president to verbally intervene. Trump’s protectionist trade policy in today’s already low unemployment rate environment will likely lead to higher wages and inflation rates. Even so, both the Fed and Trump desire a healthy U.S. economy, and we believe they will likely agree more than they will disagree on policy.