10. Crowdfunding
Real estate crowdfunding, which allows small-time investors to buy shares in commercial properties through online marketplaces, is the hot new trend right now, but it remains to be seen whether it’s a good idea. Many of the people who buy property stakes through crowdfunding have little to no experience in real estate management or investment and unlike REITs, crowdfunding sites are not bound by SEC regulations. That opens the ventures to both honest miscalculations and potential Ponzi schemes.
9. Rent Securitization
We all remember what happened when commercial mortgage securitizations got a bit out of hand in the mid-2000s. Underwriting standards went out the door and when the financial crisis hit and some owners found themselves under water they simply walked away from their properties, handing the keys back to the lenders. Unlike senior lenders like banks and insurance companies, however, bond buyers are usually not experienced in property management or foreclosure proceedings. What if the same thing were to happen in the rental market, where private equity firms like Blackstone and Cerberus Capital Management have been buying up foreclosed homes, securitizing the debt and then selling the securitized bonds to investors? Who’ll pick up the management of the properties if things go south?
8. Same-Day Delivery
Same-day delivery may be a convenience many businesses and consumers dream of, but it requires a delicate balancing act on the part of retailers and distribution center owners. As the service takes off, it will require the construction of more distribution centers. But what should those centers look like? How large should they be? Where should they be based to optimize distribution capabilities? Some of those issues still need to be figured out.
7. Dual-Branding in Hotel Space
The hotel sector has lagged the recovery of every other commercial property type this cycle, in part because of its unique vulnerability to macro-economic trends and in part because hotels are one of the more complicated assets to operate. It looks like investors have started to feel more comfortable about buying stakes in hospitality properties in the past year. But a new trend, which involves combining several hotel brands in one building, may add another level of complexity to such deals. Sure, the building may be positioned on the best corner in town. But is it a luxury property? An investment geared toward the mid-market consumer? What’s an accurate way to value it or predict occupancy trends?
6. Suburban Office Parks
As Millennials begin to enter the taskforce, they are brining drastically different ideas from their parents for where and how they want to work. In addition to being drawn to cities with vibrant downtowns and public transportation systems, they seem to thrive in open office spaces. That means that suburban office parks, especially in tertiary markets, may become an obsolete property type. In some cases, those offices may be converted into apartments or retail venues. In others, however, they may need to be razed.
5. Talent Shortage
Commercial real estate may be currently viewed as a hot investment option, but what about commercial real estate as a career choice? Consulting firm Deloitte estimates that more than 65 percent of senior leaders in the industry will retire by 2020. There is a fear that there are not enough well-trained young professionals to replace them, partly due to the fact that only a handful of universities offer commercial real estate degrees. Many REITs and brokerage firms have established training programs to groom young employees for leadership, but perhaps more needs to be done to promote the industry among young’uns.
4. 10-Year Loans Coming Due
The industry will also be facing a timing issue as approximately $188 billion in commercial mortgage loans reach maturity between 2015 and 2017. Researchers at ratings firm Fitch estimate that unless interest rates rise at a quicker-than-expected pace, borrowers on most of those loans will be able to refinance. But in some cases, especially with underperforming assets or assets in tertiary markets, borrowers may be forced to come up with extra equity to cover valuation gaps.
3. TRIA Extension
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA), which was signed into law following the destruction of the World Trade Center on September 11, is set to expire at the end of this year. If it’s not extended it will force property owners to seek terrorism insurance in the private market, where insurance companies have not been especially keen to agree to cover losses for events that are truly unforeseeable and that can result in billions of dollars’ worth of damage.
2. CMBS Underwriting Deteriorating
After several years of minimal CMBS issuance, everyone is happy to see conduit lenders back in the market. But with the competition heating up between banks, life insurers and conduit shops to lend money to real estate borrowers, underwriting standards have started to loosen. A little of that dynamic may be healthy, but if underwriting quality deteriorates more and more the industry may find itself back where it started, in 2007/2008. After all, this is a cyclical business.
1. Interest Rates Rising
Part of what’s been driving the recovery in property investment sales, in addition to improving fundamentals, has been the availability of cheap debt, as the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at historically low levels. But the era of cheap money can’t last forever and if interest rates begin to climb up, especially if they shoot up quickly and unexpectedly, that can put a damper on investors’ interest in commercial real estate assets.