Victor Calanog is the head of commercial real estate economics at Moody's Analytics. 

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

This will likely vary by geography and industry. Some will come back as soon as this month, while others will come later in the year, particularly if the office is located in a dense urban area that requires employees to take public transit. There is also somewhat of a growing divide in terms of what employers expect or verbalize, and what employees may have come to expect.

What will that return look like?

It will likely be haphazard, at least for the coming year. Many employees will be excited to return to the office; others may harbor resentment and concern about the official stance of their employer, as well as the actual behavior of their direct manager. Some firms will espouse flexibility, but if you have CEOs and executive leadership teams back in the office five days a week, that will cascade.

Lindsay Ornstein is a partner and New York market co-leader at real estate services and advisory firm Transwestern. 

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

Based on what we are seeing in New York, companies will treat the remainder of this year as a test ground to determine what functionality and level of flexibility is appropriate for their business on an ongoing basis. This will establish the important metrics to determine how much space and what kind of spaces they will need going forward and provide the clarity necessary to make long-term real estate decisions. By 2022, companies will be in a stronger position to engage the market in earnest, and property owners with an assortment of built, ready-to-go space will benefit from the newfound confidence we anticipate will permeate the sector.

What will that return look like?

The post-pandemic office environment will be an evolved workplace. The pandemic provided unique insights into how and where employees are most effective. We’ve learned volumes about how people work, what drives productivity and where adjustments can be made to achieve greater work/life integration. The simple answer is it’s different for everyone, and the workplace of the future should be geared for that. The knowledge and experience we’ve gained as advisors and as an industry will help enrich and enhance workplaces, making the office a place where employees want to spend time to reap the benefits of culture, camaraderie and collaboration. Widespread acceptance of flex optionality should also prove a boon to women, who will benefit from more latitude in their weekly schedules, as this group of professionals still carries the bulk of childcare responsibilities.

Christopher Rising is founder and CEO of Rising Realty, which owns and manages major office buildings in the Los Angeles metro area. 

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

We are seeing life return to “normal” sooner than expected as vaccination rates increase. While we expect office usage to further increase this summer, we anticipate large companies will plan for a full, unrestricted return-to-the-office after Labor Day.

What will that look like?

Drastic changes to the office environment require significant investment, and we do not anticipate major shifts in floor plans or office space in the near-term. Office culture still matters for productivity and innovation, and for that reason, executives will want employees working together within their space. However, we continue to believe companies will offer “hybrid” experiences, where employees can work remotely at least one or maybe two days a week.

Jay Neveloff is partner and chairman of the real estate practice at New York-based law firm Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel LLP. 

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

I expect to see a full-scale return after Labor Day, mostly during September. I am hopeful that businesses will encourage people to come back occasionally in advance of September because it will be a gradual process. Although I expect a full-scale return, it is not yet clear what that means—most likely three days a week (in the office) through the end of the year.

What will that return look like?

Every business I am aware of is giving the return process a great deal of thought. Both staggering and coordinating dates are the critical concerns.

Frank Pusinelli is senior vice president and chief operating officer for operating assets at RXR Realty, is a real estate owner, manager, and developer located in New York City and surrounding areas of Westchester County, Long Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

As more and more people get vaccinated, we’re seeing a corresponding increase in companies planning an earlier return to the office. That return will likely vary by company and by industry, with some returning to pre-pandemic norms, while others explore a hybrid model. The widespread distribution of the vaccine has been a game changer across every sector, and New York City’s recent surge in activity is perhaps the best evidence of that.

Heidi Learner is Americas head of real assets research at CBRE. 

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

A full-scale return may mean different things, as there are only a handful of firms that have pre-announced that all employees will be required back in the office. With only 52 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated, it is too early for employers to mandate a return until Labor Day, especially since many states are not requiring in-person school instruction until the start of the 2021 school year.

Nonetheless, collaboration is an integral part of work and productivity. This happens organically while we’re together in-person in ways that cannot be matched virtually. Additionally we are hearing that younger employees seem quite hungry to return to the workplace as a means of reconnecting with work colleagues, corporate identity/values and regaining traction in career advancement. There are a few industries, such as in the financial sector, that have asked their employees to be ready for a summer return, which will coincide with the start of formal college intern programs. For these hires training by established colleagues will be critical. This timing assumes that there will not be another wave of the virus among those who remain unvaccinated and that the current vaccines remain effective against any potential new strains.

What will that return look like?

A return to the office will not be a wholesale return of all workers, but a staggered return to allow flexibility among workers and enable teams that need to collaborate to engage with one another. While many will be given the option to return to the office on a full-time basis, most employees will opt for the hybrid arrangements that the bulk of employers will allow. Employers may provide employees with some flexibility in choosing their in-office days, but more likely will determine in-office days for sets of teams in order to facilitate scheduling and avoid over-booking of shared resources, such as conference rooms.

John Chang is senior vice president of research at real estate services and advisory firm Marcus & Millichap.

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

A full-scale return to the office still faces significant uncertainty. There are three open issues that could dramatically affect the timeline.

• Health risks and potential future lockdowns: There is an open-ended question about risks created by COVID mutations relative to the capacity of the vaccines to battle future pandemic-level spread. Assuming there is no major setback, this will not present a barrier to the full return to offices.
• Logistical issues: Businesses are still in the process of assessing space per employee, physical distancing requirements, HVAC capacity and government regulations, which have yet to stabilize on a national level, as each state has unique rules and standards.
• Business/employee decisions: Many employees have grown accustomed to working from home and prefer the flexibility this offers. Many have relocated to suburban areas or even new cities. At the outset of the pandemic, numerous companies suggested extensive flexibility in where people work from going forward, but have found that corporate culture, cohesion, collaboration, recruiting, training and productivity have fallen short. Currently there is a sizable disconnect between employers and employees regarding a full return to the office that has yet to play out.

Ultimately, resolving these issues will take time and, in some cases, some level of compromise will likely be required. Many companies are currently in the process of moving back to the office, at least on a partial level. By the end of summer, assuming there is not another major health-related setback, up to 40 percent of staff could be back in the office at least part-time. By the end of the year, staffing may be back to 70 percent in the office at least part-time. The remaining 30 percent may require a full year to resolve and a portion of that may not return to the office at all. By the end of 2022 office staffing levels should stabilize at the new normal, with the classic model of working from the office five days per week likely to continue to evolve.

What will that return look like?

A return-to-the-office will take a phased approach, with many employees having a more flexible office work schedule. The tight labor market among college-educated employees, along with a current unemployment rate of 3.5 percent, will force many companies to adopt partial remote work policies as an employee benefit, so we are s unlikely to see a full return to the pre-pandemic model at all. In addition, companies may limit their centralized office models in favor of having satellite offices in the suburbs or in smaller cities. This will give companies the ability to tap a larger prospective employee base. It’s unlikely office employment will return to the way it was for many years, if ever. A more likely outcome will be an adapted model that decentralizes office space and offers employees more remote work flexibility.

Rebecca Humphrey is executive vice president and workplace practice leader at real estate services and advisory firm Savills. 

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place?

There won’t be a light-switch return with everyone coming back full-time. And there are a lot of variables to factor in, like geography—different things are happening in different places. People have already returned to the office in some areas of the country, and we’re starting to see it happen in New York. As long as there are non-vaccinated among [them], the vaccinated workers will have concerns about social distancing and returning to the office. I do think we’ll see a large return—or as large as we’ll see for awhile—in the third and fourth quarters. It’s hard to say if large or small companies will return quicker. On the one hand, large companies are in the best position to come back successfully, as they have had occupancy support teams preparing for this for some time. On the other hand, they have more people to bring back, which may slow efforts because there are more people to convince that it’s safe. My guess is that with fewer workers, smaller companies may come back quicker because they have figured out their employees’ concerns about returning and have a strong pulse on what they want and a plan to react.

What will that look like?

I don’t think we’ll see a lot of reconfiguring of offices, but there will be a focus on making the office environment safe and healthy. People aren’t going to spend capital to redesign their offices unless they were already planning to do it or at the end of their lease term. But I can see spaces being used in different ways, like converting an office to a phone booth or small conference room where two or three people can connect with co-workers on Zoom. It’s going to be about having the right space for the way people will work in the immediate future.

Most people will have some form of a hybrid workforce, with an average of people working in the office two or three days a week. I expect employers to bring back young workers faster for mentoring, training and employee engagement.

Nadir Settles is a managing director and New York regional head at Nuveen Real Estate, a real estate investment management firm. 

When do you think a full-scale return to the office will take place? 

Nuveen plans to reopen offices more broadly to associates beginning in January 2022. This remains dependent on numerous variables around the virus and inoculation rates in our markets. We are planning to offer a limited voluntary return to the office in multiple waves after Labor Day in order to test and learn about our approach. 

Upon full office reopening, Nuveen will implement a hybrid model for the vast majority of our associates, focused on reestablishing the value of in-person interaction and collaboration, balanced with the flexibility of regular remote work consistent with business, client, and personal needs.

What will that return look like?

We are considering several factors, including the latest scientific facts. This includes advice from health care professionals, business and local requirements, associates’ views, and ensuring the appropriate safety protocols and training are in place in our offices. We’ve also gathered extensive input from our employees—and that feedback, combined with business needs and industry expertise and best practices, is influencing our space design plans.

As part of these efforts, we are transforming some of our large offices into more modern, engaging spaces that will better enable the success of our company and ensure the health, safety and well-being of our employees.

In addition, we are redesigning our Nuveen Real Estate-owned and operated properties to be more connected, so Nuveen’s own employees and employees of our tenants have access to amenities in multiple buildings. Using a mobile app, for example, both Nuveen employees and tenant employees can indicate whether they want to use the amenities in Nuveen portfolio owned-properties. Amenity sharing could range from scheduling lunch delivery from restaurants located in the Nuveen buildings to attending cross-building events hosted by Nuveen. Our goal is to create a sense of community and help both employees and those of our tenants appreciate working in an office setting again. We believe blending office with hotel-like amenities will keep our employees and tenants returning to the office engaged and happy.