Distressed Commercial-Property Sales Seen Surpassing Last CrisisDistressed Commercial-Property Sales Seen Surpassing Last Crisis

(Bloomberg)—An estimated $126 billion in commercial real estate will be forced to sell at distressed prices through 2022, more than the first two years after the global financial crisis, according to CoStar Group Inc.

Distressed hotel, retail, office and other properties will continue to flow to the market over the coming five years, potentially reaching $321 billion in sales by 2025, the real estate analytics company said. The total may swell to $659 billion in a worst-case scenario, according to a CoStar presentation released last week.

Mortgage delinquencies have soared for hotel and retail properties during the pandemic, while office buildings face an uncertain future as employees continue working remotely. Regulators have so far avoided pressuring lenders to recognize losses, while most borrowers continue to hold out hope for a rebound, especially as Covid-19 vaccines begin distribution.

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