Where will be at end of next week?
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Boys and Girls, welcome to the Great Depression. What is getting ZERO play is what happens when both Soverign banks unwind US treasuries to cover loan loss provisions. Countries will be faced with either liquidating assets are creating inflation by printing money. The first thing to go will be assets. As this mess unwinds the fall boy will be the US economy. The market is in a free fall and at this level 5800-6000 is the next stop. If we fail to hold that level can you say welcome to Dow 3500?
Ive been in the business 15 years and it is VERY likely that the Dow will bottom where it was when I started in this business.... I want to cry[quote=BukiRob]Boys and Girls, welcome to the Great Depression. What is getting ZERO play is what happens when both Soverign banks unwind US treasuries to cover loan loss provisions. Countries will be faced with either liquidating assets are creating inflation by printing money. The first thing to go will be assets. As this mess unwinds the fall boy will be the US economy. The market is in a free fall and at this level 5800-6000 is the next stop. If we fail to hold that level can you say welcome to Dow 3500?
Ive been in the business 15 years and it is VERY likely that the Dow will bottom where it was when I started in this business.... I want to cry[/quote] Stocks are just pieces of paper..if the dividends are not real or being cut that paper is near worthless at times. If M&A appears that can change the game, but do not see that now for awhile. You can sit back and wait for the BK's to come up and cherry pick from there, why pay retail even when credit comes back. Looking at 100's of big names; AA, IP, WHR, DOW, GE, etc etc they are back to the early 90's. Anyone who thinks 3500 DOW is not on the table down the road is nuts. Next shoe to fall is insurance company goes belly up and and people scramble to see if they get .15 cents on the dollar on their annuities.I have been in the business 20 years and I predict that no matter how high Obama raises the capital gains tax rate, every thing I own will still be at a loss and I will pay no taxes if I sell.
Next shoe to fall is insurance company goes belly up and and people
scramble to see if they get .15 cents on the dollar on their annuities.
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That’ll be then end of the biz for many. Some FA’s would have a ton of charge backs if people start surrendering annuities done less than 12 months (I guess this depends what firm you work for)
if all hell broke loose, (fdic becomes insolvent) which is safer:
CD from a bank that may fail or a money market mutual fund only invested in treasuries?
If FDIC becomes insolvent, it doesn’t matter any more. The game would, in fact, be over.
FDIC can borrow from the Treasury. Sheila Bair is trying to tax the banks to sure up the FDIC funds but she doesn’t need to. I would be pissed if I was a small community bank doing all the right things, only to pay the price for BAC/WB’s mistakes.
[quote=josephjones107] todays close will be dramatic
down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)
tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)
market will be relieved to get that report out of the way[/quote]
jobs report alot worse than expected but market up over 2%, this keeps happening each month. It's as if the market just likes getting it out of the way.
mini rally starting. Dow close to 7500 by end of next week
Wishful thinking[quote=josephjones107] [quote=josephjones107] todays close will be dramatic[/quote]
down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)
tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)
market will be relieved to get that report out of the way[/quote]
jobs report alot worse than expected but market up over 2%, this keeps happening each month. It’s as if the market just likes getting it out of the way.
mini rally starting. Dow close to 7500 by end of next week
My mind must be in the gutter with Mike D. because that’s what I was thinking also. Then I remembered Valentine’s Day being in Feb. and figured sales would be high leading up to it. That and with the downturn in the market aren’t we all turning to items that make us feel better. Sin Stocks!
beware of easy money
late 90s easy money were tech stocks
2002-2006 easy money was flipping houses
2008-? easy money is shorting stocks
That’s interesting Ice. I have clients who own a large dive/ski/travel retail store, and they told me that January sales were great, which I also thought was weird. Obviously, no one NEEDS diving or ski (water and snow) equipment. I took it as a positive sign.
Agreed. Thanks for sharing now_indy. Good to know that if it's a fluke, there are other small businesses out there experiencing the same "fluke." [/quote][quote=now_indy]That’s interesting Ice. I have clients who own a large dive/ski/travel retail store, and they told me that January sales were great, which I also thought was weird. Obviously, no one NEEDS diving or ski (water and snow) equipment. I took it as a positive sign.
FWIW Valentine's weekend I was at Disneyworld with the wife and kids. Yeah the cabbies and some of the employees were complaining that business had been slow, but on Saturday night you couldn't get a reservation at ANY decent restaurant. The parks were packed during the day on Saturday with long wait times for the rides.
Now I am in Park City, UT on a guys ski trip that we do every year. There are more condos and rental homes with "FOR LEASE" or "FOR SALE" signs than usual, but the slopes are not empty by any means, nor the restaurants at night.
Whatever the press and the statistics may be telling you, there are plenty of folks out there spending money eagerly trying to combat the stress they've felt over this past year.
I'm starting to think that at this stage the financial markets may be reflecting a far more pessimistic environment than what is reflected in the 'real world'. Just my 2 cents.