What A Long Strange Trip It's Been In The MarketsWhat A Long Strange Trip It's Been In The Markets
If you don't change, you're gonna get stung.
November 21, 2016
What a Long Strange Trip It's Been
Sometimes the light's all shinin' on me,
Other times I can barely see
Lately it occurs to me what a long, strange trip it's been
The Grateful Dead, 1970, by Jerome Garcia, Philip Lesh, Robert Hunter and Robert Weir
In my last note, May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor, I wrote "The bond market is, probabilistically speaking, an underdog to perform well over the next 2-3 years." Since then, the 10 year US Treasury bond has fallen over 3.5%, and the yield has risen over 58 basis points from 1.75% to 2.33% as of the close yesterday. For investors who bought the 10-year thinking they were going to earn 1.75% for the next ten years, losing over two years' worth of income in a month must sting a bit. And if they don't change, they're going to get stung again.
