As we turn the page on June, it is important to remember that the third quarter historically is the worst quarter of the year. The good news though is the weak performance opens the door to the historically very strong fourth quarter.
July Is Very Strong Post-Election Years
Now here’s the catch about the third quarter, July is usually strong. It is August and September you need to worry about.
During a post-election year, July is the best month of the year, up 2.2% on average since 1950.
The End of June and Early July Are Historically Quite Strong
Apparently, stocks like July 4th, as the few days leading up to the holiday are some of the best of the year for the S&P 500 Index.
First Six Months Indicator
Lastly, a good start to a year is usually a good sign for the rest of the year. When the first six months for the year gain more than 12.5% (like 2021 will likely do), then the final six months do extremely well, with a median return of 9.7%, nearly twice the median return of 5.0% for any given year.
