Where will be at end of next week?

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josephjones107's picture
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7500 ?

now_indy's picture
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I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

6500

etj4588's picture
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My client, who has a remarkable history for being right about the markets, told me today that he expects to see the Dow at 4800 before this is all over.
 
 

Sam Houston's picture
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now_indy wrote:I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I thought your crystal ball was broken. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...Oh, that makes it all better.  Also explains your other posts.  Don't mistake your missteps with the way I do business. [QUOTE]
 
 

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now_indy wrote:I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...
 
Great, now you've jinxed it.  Hasn't anyone told you that when you call the bottom there's some special force that resets it again.  Ask Kramer.  He knows all about it. 

now_indy's picture
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Sam Houston wrote:now_indy wrote:I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I thought your crystal ball was broken. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...Oh, that makes it all better.  Also explains your other posts.  Don't mistake your missteps with the way I do business. [QUOTE]
 
 
 
Sam, my crystal ball is broken.  That was not a statement of fact, that was a GUESS by me.
 
It's just that I'm willing to call it what it is, a guess. You make guesses, and attribute it to some ability to know when to get in and out of the markets.
 
If I go with a client to a casino, and he asks me if he should put his IRA into a slot machine, and I say "no," but he does it anyway, and hits a massive jackpot, was I wrong?  No, I wasn't wrong, he just guessed right.  That is not repeatable, in the same way that your "get out when the market is going down, get back in when it goes up" strategy is not repeatable.

Sam Houston's picture
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You keep telling yourself that I guess or predict or time or whatever you need to sleep at night.

JayMc's picture
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s and p earnings were 35 bucks in 1996.
peak earnings were about 95 in 2007
take us to 50?40?35?
think about it.

that will discount
population growth
productivity growth
tech growth and
the ENTIRE MF global economy since 96

be very very greedy when everyone is fearful

RISK is so on sale.

Philo Kvetch's picture
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I predict that by the end of next week we will be at March 13, and further, I will be at the GatorNationals.

UNDERMINDED's picture
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dow somewhere between 5900-8900.... give or take a couple of points.

Borker Boy's picture
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0

josephjones107's picture
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todays close will be dramatic

Anonymous's picture
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Why?

josephjones107's picture
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selling pressure more and more relentlus. People are concerned about survival

buyandhold's picture
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Had two clients liquidate this week. I've talked them out of it in the past, but now they're just transferring out.

now_indy's picture
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now_indy wrote:I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...
 
I could be wrong...

UNDERMINDED's picture
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haha, I'll say, I was thinking about your original post when I checked the market last.

josephjones107's picture
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josephjones107 wrote: todays close will be dramatic

down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)

tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)
market will be relieved to get that report out of the way

jkl1v1n6's picture
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How'd the market finished today?  I was too busy curled up in a fetal position under my desk to look up and see!

mojo99's picture
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The 8 talking heads on MSNBC all gave differing opinions. So I did a weighted average analysis on the square root of the sum of their predictions, multiplied by the number of months we've been in recession, divided by the number of jobs lost in the past six months, less the number of jobs expected to be lost next month, multiplied by the VIX then divided by pi since I needed some sort of mathematical greek number in here so I could justify the result to my clients, and came up with the answer. I'm waiting for the network to invite me on so I can announce it to the world.

josephjones107's picture
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MSNBC is has political shows, do you mean CNBC?

mojo99's picture
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damn, now I have to recalculate everything...

BukiRob's picture
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Boys and Girls, welcome to the Great Depression.   What is getting ZERO play is what happens when both Soverign banks unwind US treasuries to cover loan loss provisions.  Countries will be faced with either liquidating assets are creating inflation by printing money.  The first thing to go will be assets.  As this mess unwinds the fall boy will be the US economy.  The market is in a free fall and at this level 5800-6000 is the next stop.  If we fail to hold that level can you say welcome to Dow 3500?
 
Ive been in the business 15 years and it is VERY likely that the Dow will bottom where it was when I started in this business....
 
I want to cry

fritz's picture
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BukiRob wrote:Boys and Girls, welcome to the Great Depression.   What is getting ZERO play is what happens when both Soverign banks unwind US treasuries to cover loan loss provisions.  Countries will be faced with either liquidating assets are creating inflation by printing money.  The first thing to go will be assets.  As this mess unwinds the fall boy will be the US economy.  The market is in a free fall and at this level 5800-6000 is the next stop.  If we fail to hold that level can you say welcome to Dow 3500?
 
Ive been in the business 15 years and it is VERY likely that the Dow will bottom where it was when I started in this business....
 
I want to cry
 
Stocks are just pieces of paper..if the dividends are not real or being cut that paper is near worthless at times.  If M&A appears that can change the game, but do not see that now for awhile.  You can sit back and wait for the BK's to come up and cherry pick from there, why pay retail even when credit comes back.  Looking at 100's of big names; AA, IP, WHR, DOW, GE, etc etc they are back to the early 90's.  Anyone who thinks 3500 DOW is not on the table down the road is nuts.  Next shoe to fall is insurance company goes belly up and and people scramble to see if they get .15 cents on the dollar on their annuities.

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I have been in the business 20 years and I predict that no matter how high Obama raises the capital gains tax rate, every thing I own will still be at a loss and I will pay no taxes if I sell.

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Next shoe to fall is insurance company goes belly up and and people
scramble to see if they get .15 cents on the dollar on their annuities.*************************************************That'll be then end of the biz for many. Some FA's would have a ton of charge backs if people start surrendering annuities done less than 12 months (I guess this depends what firm you work for)

josephjones107's picture
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if all hell broke loose, (fdic becomes insolvent) which is safer:

CD from a bank that may fail or a money market mutual fund only invested in treasuries?

Philo Kvetch's picture
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If FDIC becomes insolvent, it doesn't matter any more. The game would, in fact, be over.

Anonymous's picture
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buy guns, ammo, canned food, and gold coins.

Borker Boy's picture
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What about the state guaranty funds for fixed annuities?

josephjones107's picture
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treasuries should be the last thing standing outside of actual goods, right?

go_huskies's picture
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based on this thread, we should begin looking for mushroom clouds...

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josephjones107 wrote:if all hell broke loose, (fdic becomes insolvent) which is safer: CD from a bank that may fail or a money market mutual fund only invested in treasuries?
 
FDIC won't go insolvent.  Go to the forum in my signature, there is a fresh discussion about that posted there.  Won't happen. 
 
 

Gordon Gekko's picture
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FDIC can borrow from the Treasury. Sheila Bair is trying to tax the banks to sure up the FDIC funds but she doesn't need to. I would be pissed if I was a small community bank doing all the right things, only to pay the price for BAC/WB's mistakes.

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josephjones107 wrote: josephjones107 wrote: todays close will be dramatic

down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)

tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)
market will be relieved to get that report out of the way

jobs report alot worse than expected but market up over 2%, this keeps happening each month. It's as if the market just likes getting it out of the way.

mini rally starting. Dow close to 7500 by end of next week

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josephjones107 wrote: josephjones107 wrote: josephjones107 wrote: todays close will be dramatic down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07) tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment) market will be relieved to get that report out of the way jobs report alot worse than expected but market up over 2%, this keeps happening each month. It's as if the market just likes getting it out of the way. mini rally starting. Dow close to 7500 by end of next week
 
 
Wishful thinking

Anonymous's picture
Anonymous

For whatever it's worth guys, and this may not be much, BUT:
 
I still have ownership interest in my previous company.  I know I'm being very ambiguous here, but it's necessary...suffice it to say that the company I'm talking about is a manufacturer & retailer of VERY DISCRETIONARY products.  Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, NEEDS the products, they are strictly for leisure.
 
That being said - I'm looking at sales figures for Feb, and thru close of business yesterday.  weekly & daily sales have been up over 200%.  In fact, the company just posted the best 3 weeks (sales) in the past 18 months.  Moreover, historically for this company, January and February are the WORST 2 months of the year sales-wise, and the numbers I'm referencing are NOT seasonally-adjusted.
 
I can confirm also, NOTHING has changed to spark the increase.  No extra advertising, no special sale, etc.  Also, this isn't one or two big wholesale accounts buying a sh*t load of products...this is a consistent increase on an almost daily basis. 
 
I know it's just a small slice, and not a very scientific sample.  Maybe it's just tax refunds being spent.  But whatever the case, I thought I'd share a unique (and positive for once) perspective.

Mike Damone's picture
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Ice, I didn't know you owned an Adult DVD / Bookstore.

jkl1v1n6's picture
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My mind must be in the gutter with Mike D. because that's what I was thinking also.  Then I remembered Valentine's Day being in Feb. and figured sales would be high leading up to it.  That and with the downturn in the market aren't we all turning to items that make us feel better.  Sin Stocks!

jkl1v1n6's picture
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Ice,
 
R U the Lovesack guy?  Those things are awesome!

Anonymous's picture
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LOL,
 
Looking back, I can see why you'd think it has something to do with Adult Entertainment...but it's not.  In fact, it's nothing you'd likely find in a "Vice Fund" (i.e. not related to drugs, tobacco, porn, or alcohol).  It's still completely discretionary/leisure - and has strung together a killer couple of weeks, without changing ANYTHING. 
 
Could be something.  Could be a fluke.  And yes, I already considered that it could be tax refund checks, but as I already mentioned, Jan. and Feb. are typically AWFUL months for this company. 

josephjones107's picture
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beware of easy money

late 90s easy money were tech stocks
2002-2006 easy money was flipping houses
2008-? easy money is shorting stocks

now_indy's picture
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That's interesting Ice. I have clients who own a large dive/ski/travel retail store, and they told me that January sales were great, which I also thought was weird.  Obviously, no one NEEDS diving or ski (water and snow) equipment.  I took it as a positive sign.

josephjones107's picture
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60% of people still have jobs, so they will go out and buy stuff

Anonymous's picture
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now_indy wrote:That's interesting Ice. I have clients who own a large dive/ski/travel retail store, and they told me that January sales were great, which I also thought was weird.  Obviously, no one NEEDS diving or ski (water and snow) equipment.  I took it as a positive sign.
 
Agreed.  Thanks for sharing now_indy.  Good to know that if it's a fluke, there are other small businesses out there experiencing the same "fluke." 

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iceco1d wrote:now_indy wrote:That's interesting Ice. I have clients who own a large dive/ski/travel retail store, and they told me that January sales were great, which I also thought was weird.  Obviously, no one NEEDS diving or ski (water and snow) equipment.  I took it as a positive sign.
 
Agreed.  Thanks for sharing now_indy.  Good to know that if it's a fluke, there are other small businesses out there experiencing the same "fluke."  FWIW Valentine's weekend I was at Disneyworld with the wife and kids.  Yeah the cabbies and some of the employees were complaining that business had been slow, but on Saturday night you couldn't get a reservation at ANY decent restaurant.  The parks were packed during the day on Saturday with long wait times for the rides.Now I am in Park City, UT on a guys ski trip that we do every year.  There are more condos and rental homes with "FOR LEASE" or "FOR SALE" signs than usual, but the slopes are not empty by any means, nor the restaurants at night.Whatever the press and the statistics may be telling you, there are plenty of folks out there spending money eagerly trying to combat the stress they've felt over this past year.I'm starting to think that at this stage the financial markets may be reflecting a far more pessimistic environment than what is reflected in the 'real world'.  Just my 2 cents.

jkl1v1n6's picture
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Hyman:
 
WTF are you checking this board for if you are right now on the slopes.  Take a break and enjoy the skiing and the bunnies.  I'll be in Beaver Creek next week myself.
 
ENJOY!
 

HymanRoth's picture
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lol...my buddies are skiers and this morning they went to "ski only " Deer Valley.  I only snowboard.I also had a couple of 'must do' items for work.  I guess that's one of those times where being indy is a bit of a drawback.  So I'm going to do a half-day at Park City Mtn Resort today...the lift is about 500 yards away.jkl1v1n6 wrote:Hyman:
 
WTF are you checking this board for if you are right now on the slopes.  Take a break and enjoy the skiing and the bunnies.  I'll be in Beaver Creek next week myself.
 
ENJOY!
 

now_indy's picture
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HymanRoth wrote: lol...my buddies are skiers and this morning they went to "ski only " Deer Valley.  I only snowboard.I also had a couple of 'must do' items for work.  I guess that's one of those times where being indy is a bit of a drawback.  So I'm going to do a half-day at Park City Mtn Resort today...the lift is about 500 yards away.jkl1v1n6 wrote:Hyman:
 
WTF are you checking this board for if you are right now on the slopes.  Take a break and enjoy the skiing and the bunnies.  I'll be in Beaver Creek next week myself.
 
ENJOY!
 
 
I'm a little jealous. (and by a little, I mean a lot). Have fun, and as you obviously know from experience, Utah snow is some of the best in the world.

ytrewq's picture
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Gordon Gekko wrote:FDIC can borrow from the Treasury. Sheila Bair is trying to tax the banks to sure up the FDIC funds but she doesn't need to. I would be pissed if I was a small community bank doing all the right things, only to pay the price for BAC/WB's mistakes.
 
I would be pissed if I was a Financial Advisor working for a firm doing all the right things and was paying a price for BAC/WB/C/UBS/MS mistakes........Wait!  I am.

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