Predictions

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skbroker's picture
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It's been a great market since march and the volatility has come down but any opinion on where s&p will end up by end of the year. Anyone actually buying stocks at these level?

B24's picture
B24
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Joined: 2008-07-08

Only Emerging Markets. Holding steady on everything else. S&P cannot rise much further without a significant bump in earnings. Otherwise we will be at 2007 levels all over again.

showmethemoney's picture
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Joined: 2009-01-09

skbroker wrote:It's been a great market since march and the volatility has come down but any opinion on where s&p will end up by end of the year. Anyone actually buying stocks at these level? Markets totally overbought. No fundamental reason for sustained rally. Rally purely technical and will fall apart within the next 60 days. There will be a re-test of March lows. No economic recovery until we get jobs recovery and that isnt getting any better. This rally is all smoke and mirrors and black box trader driven. When it breaks down its gonna break real hard and real quick. I would be a buyer then. I'm betting this scenario will play out before year end, more likely before Nov.

Gaddock's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

All I know is I have absolutely no idea and my magic eight ball (yes I actually have one in my office) doesn't work at all. All the positions I'm putting on are or close to market neutral.
 
The hedge is my edge. The revcon business has been good to me lately.

rankstocks's picture
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Joined: 2005-02-10

Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 
 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?

Jebediah's picture
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Joined: 2009-07-10

Not making any predictions, but does it concern anyone that if you overlay the chart of the Dow now onto the chart of the Dow from the Great Depression, they match almost exactly.  Nice rally followed by the big plunge if history holds.

fritz's picture
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Joined: 2006-01-12

rankstocks wrote:Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 
 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?

 
 
You are out of your mind.  Take a look at the chart of Morgan Stanley, it is at the same price as it was in the 3rd week of March.  By the way the DOW was at 7600 then, nearly 2000 point move in the DOW, and countless of garbage secondaries and no movement.  This stock (and many others) is telling you that the market is in deep trouble 6-12 months out.

A b's picture
A b
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Joined: 2009-06-04

rankstocks wrote: Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 
 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?

Spot on
we will all be dead before you ever see mar 9 levels again (if ever).   

I love the doubters. The wall of worry.
perfect.    
July 10th was your last real chance to get on train.   
Wont be any real corrections for the next 25-40%.   dow 20k by dec 2014 (or sooner)
get long stay long. enjoy the ride.
we have been through hell last 10-12 years. Next decade gonna be twice average returns

The global economy is the real story.   

A b's picture
A b
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Joined: 2009-06-04

You are out of your mind.  Take a look at the chart of Morgan Stanley, it is at the same price as it was in the 3rd week of March.  By the way the DOW was at 7600 then, nearly 2000 point move in the DOW, and countless of garbage secondaries and no movement.  This stock (and many others) is telling you that the market is in deep trouble 6-12 months out.

perfect.

Moraen's picture
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Joined: 2009-01-22

Flat the rest of the year, next and the year after.

Nobody should ever put anything about the Dow on their license plate.

Sportsfreakbob's picture
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Joined: 2008-08-24

ok, so take it the next step - Moraen - if you believe the market will be flat the rest of the year, and same in 2010 and 2011, how are you positioning your clients?This is a serious question.

voltmoie's picture
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Joined: 2008-11-05

The market will be upThe market will be down

B24's picture
B24
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Joined: 2008-07-08

rankstocks wrote: Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 
 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?

I think you are using flawed data. I would be interested to see the raw data you are referring to. Look at the earnings the Dow will have to post to get to 10K.

Kudlowfan's picture
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Joined: 2009-04-22

The Dow will close above 10k.  Pent up demand, money on the sidelines, companies are lean and can't get any leaner. We've hit the bottom.   Forget the charts, look at income statements, balance sheet, and cash flow statements.  Quit watching the headlines.

Moraen's picture
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Joined: 2009-01-22

Kudlowfan wrote: The Dow will close above 10k.  Pent up demand, money on the sidelines, companies are lean and can't get any leaner. We've hit the bottom.   Forget the charts, look at income statements, balance sheet, and cash flow statements.  Quit watching the headlines.

Who's financials are you looking at? Some banks may be undervalued from a cash flow standpoint, but their balance sheets would reflect a weakened financial condition. Retail? People are spending their surplus paying down debt (thus the higher savings rate). Manufacturing? Balance sheets may be strong, but their income statements are sad. Consumer staples? Are pretty strong but can't prop up the entire Dow. Cyclicals? Weak balance sheets with light cash flow.   Tech? Tech is weak with the exception of video games and Apple.

Companies are lean and are not allocating resources to payroll (usually the largest expense). What happens when they start adding to their payrolls?

The key financial statements of most companies predict slow growth punctuated with periods thinner margins. Thinner margins the result of increased payroll as companies begin adding personnel.

Bob - for me, now is the time to exploit undervalued, underreported equities. Minimal cash positions. I've picked the poisons for my various models. We'll maintain our disciplined approach to exiting each position. If you want more, PM me.

Gaddock's picture
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Joined: 2007-02-23

I submit that if you can get market neutral it just doesn't matter where it goes. That being said new positions I'm taking are by selling puts with a delta of around -35 no more than 90 days out. If I don't get the stock I get paid for being wrong and try again. My stops are tight and trailing. It seems to me that the heath care sector has the best fundamentals at the moment but then we have the great capitalist satan Obama trying to pull the plug on that.
 
 

Weddle Me's picture
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Joined: 2009-07-19

If you want to beat the S&P 500 --- The Edward Jones Model Portfolio is the only option.EDJ #1

wired's picture
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Joined: 2007-09-16

I predict Weddle Me will drown in a horrible drinking accident from continuously binge drinking kool-aid.

showmethemoney's picture
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Joined: 2009-01-09

Gaddock wrote:I submit that if you can get market neutral it just doesn't matter where it goes. That being said new positions I'm taking are by selling puts with a delta of around -35 no more than 90 days out. If I don't get the stock I get paid for being wrong and try again. My stops are tight and trailing. It seems to me that the heath care sector has the best fundamentals at the moment but then we have the great capitalist satan Obama trying to pull the plug on that.
 
 Great...just how does one go about doing that effectively and in a timely manner for 300 plus households? Between the paranoid compliance freaks and me trying to monitor these accts and all the others, I cant see doing this very effectively for too many clients.

Ron 14's picture
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Joined: 2008-07-10

rankstocks wrote:Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 
 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?
 

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

Well, Alan Skrainka says it's a great time to buy, so I am buying as much PG, JNJ, and AIVSX as I can get my hands on.

jamesbond's picture
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Joined: 2005-03-21

It has been and will continue to be a traders market. This is a bear market rally that we have experienced the past 8 months with little volume. As for next year, stocks are currently pricing in a 4% growth rate in GDP.  The real unemployment rate is 16.8% as we look at it today, banks continue to fail at record pace, and for the first time since WW II credit, wages and rents have decreased at the same time. Consumer spending is non existent, credit is tight to consumers and small businesses.  M1 and M2 supply is drying up. The oracle himself is shifting out of equity into income. Yeah, I am sure the S & P will do GREAT next year! 

B24's picture
B24
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Joined: 2008-07-08

What is the "Real Unemployment Rate"?  I assume it has to do with "underemployed" and "no longer seeking employment"?  Just curious.

jamesbond's picture
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Joined: 2005-03-21

Yes the U6 rate

deekay's picture
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Joined: 2007-05-15

My prediction? 

 
Pain.

bspears's picture
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Joined: 2006-11-08

Continued run up in the market, possible 25-40% gain for the year.  BUT....the commercial real estate problems will hit Q2 next year and you better have your clients prepared for another collapse of the market.  IMHO....

EMLandJ's picture
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Joined: 2009-08-26

bspears wrote:Continued run up in the market, possible 25-40% gain for the year.  BUT....the commercial real estate problems will hit Q2 next year and you better have your clients prepared for another collapse of the market.  IMHO....
 
I totally agree with this.  We haven't begun to see the worst of the real estate crisis.  This will hit when the commercial real estate bubble not only pops, but bursts!

Mr. Sunshine's picture
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Joined: 2009-08-05

Dow 6000ish again....look out folks

Kudlowfan's picture
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Joined: 2009-04-22

Who says the market's priced in a 4% GDP rise and if don't get that all hell will break loose.  Maybe the market priced in the great depression back in march, realized we're not in the 30's and we are coming up to sustainable levels.  Economic indicators are pointing positive albiet with a jobless recovery.  The jobs will eventually come.
 
This is a stock pickers markets and if you can pick stocks you can pick off clients.  There are still stocks out there 50% undervalued you just have to be willing to hold onto for awhile.
 
I predict once we break 10,000 the media may start pounding the drum that the recovery is taking place and of course everyone who didn't get in since March missed a 50% gain.

A b's picture
A b
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Joined: 2009-06-04

Mr. Sunshine wrote: Dow 6000ish again....look out folks

perfect.   get long   stay long

B24's picture
B24
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Joined: 2008-07-08

Kudlowfan wrote: Who says the market's priced in a 4% GDP rise and if don't get that all hell will break loose.  Maybe the market priced in the great depression back in march, realized we're not in the 30's and we are coming up to sustainable levels.  Economic indicators are pointing positive albiet with a jobless recovery.  The jobs will eventually come.
 
This is a stock pickers markets and if you can pick stocks you can pick off clients.  There are still stocks out there 50% undervalued you just have to be willing to hold onto for awhile.
 
I predict once we break 10,000 the media may start pounding the drum that the recovery is taking place and of course everyone who didn't get in since March missed a 50% gain.
 
Earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings.  You can't have a recovery with a lack of earnings.  You can do it at 10% unemployment (assuming we eventually reverse course - it's always a trailing indicator), but you can't recover without earnings.  I hate to say "it's different this time", but economically, it is. 
 
The only saving grace is that the unemployment rate in 12/1982 was 10.8%.  We all know what happened after that.  However, the 82-99 Bull saw some of the greatest increases in productivity in history, as well as a push towards globalization.  Other than in emerging markets, we see neither of those re-occurring any time soon (hint, go BRIC!). 

A b's picture
A b
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Joined: 2009-06-04

"except for emerging markets" ?

The following is why the next 20 years in financial markets are going to be WAY above the norm. Will make 82-99 growth seem small.

Free market horse out of the barn.
"competition for global resources" and massive wealth creation.
get long.   

sub-prime a footnote and last awesome entry point.
As time goes on, we will continue to be blown away by valuations on march 9, 2009.
We will be old fukcs saying "yep sonny, I was there was IP, TXT,IR,BAC,AXP,hig etc etc were under 10 bucks.   We will act like bad asses that we were buying like crazy (instead of in fetal position on floor).
And that most clients (and us) forgot about the cheese and wanted out of the MF trap.

Brazil
Chile
China
Colombia
Czech Republic
Egypt
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Israel[8]
Malaysia
Mexico
Morocco
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Russia
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey

bluetoon's picture
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Joined: 2009-03-29

As someone who actually bought on March 9th...and then sold Friday August 28th, (a 106% return), I fully believe we have seen the highs for the year. We are do for a 10% - 12% correction; and dips should be bought starting below 9000. To say we will go below 8200 on the DJIA (or more) is foolish and strikes of someone who is bitter for missing the initial move. For 2010, I do believe we will see DJIA 10,700ish.
 
Stocks I bought on March 9th:
 
AA
CAT
UNP
X
DRYS
GE
WYNN
FAS
COP
CVX
DD
FCX
FLR
JOYG
KFT
MSFT
PFE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A b's picture
A b
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Joined: 2009-06-04

dow 10000. how cool.

keep doubting it.

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