Prediction Thread

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JoeNatlanta's picture
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Thought it would be kind of fun for everyone to throw out their 12-18 month predictions on our industry in a separate thread...here are a few from me:

1.   BAC, C, WFC, and MS have to fully dilute their shareholders and ALL end up converting government and public preferred shares into common stock
2. JPM and GS attempt to pay the government back, then things worsen enough to where they end up keeping it
3. BAC and C end up being more than 50% owned by the government
4. UBS spins out the US wealth management division similar to what Citi did with Smith Barney, either with Stifel, or with WFC doing the same thing to their wealth management arm. The new entity is called Paine Webber, or a new name entirely
5. The RIA channel continues to add a tremendous amount of market share - mostly from wirehouse advisors bailing after disgust with the majors
6. The "small advisor" becomes a combined force in the industry. With all of the layoffs/pay cuts, the firms that they flee to gain market share and several smaller firms take a big step upward during this downturn
7. MS and SB merger easily overtakes ML as the biggest baddest boy around, and James Gorman becomes the leading major brokerage firm voice for the industry
8. The market turns down again and retests its lows
9. Unemployment hits 11%

Chazzy's picture
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could we be any more gloomy?  I predict you will lose more clients over the next year because of your negative vibe....Just sayin'

HymanRoth's picture
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Gee....that was fun!

3rdyrp2's picture
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America, if this guy's predictions hold true--------> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbNRyxJxRVM

Squash1's picture
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I don't think he is far off....
However I think the number of disenfranchised wires that form RIAs are grossly over estimated, most would rather just take another deal..
I don't think GS needs anymore money even if there is another downturn..
I think hungry "small advisors"(under $300K) who are hungry and angry and what happened to them can pick up tremedous market share from the Wires treading water.
 

Ron 14's picture
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How does thinking about any of this crap benefit you, your business, or your clients ?

Spaceman Spiff's picture
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It doesn't.  But while you're typing you don't have to call them and talk to them about how bad their portfolio looks right now. 

Ron 14's picture
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Spiff I am with you in that regard, but just the word "prediction" makes me physically ill. Nobody knows what is going to happen. Nobody saw this debacle coming. Nobody knows what the hell the government is going to do. But yet everyone has an opinion which makes all commentary on everything from sports to stocks just worthless!

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

I predict that if I have one more client think that CD's are "safer" than government and GSE securities, I will take a dump on my desk and quit.

frumhere's picture
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CD's. I have some clients refusing CD's because they perceive these too as risky.  They are an rarity lately though. 
 
Most clients are over it all, it is us that is frozen and nervous. 
 

snaggletooth's picture
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I predict Chrysler will file for Chapter 11.

norway401's picture
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Me too Snags....oh right it is 3:44 EST.

buyandhold's picture
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1. Stocks rally, off and on, then collapse again, late this year or next.2. Banks get hammered with credit card and commercial lending losses and go back to the Treasury, which nationalizes C and BAC.3. Real estate rallies a bit, but never gets back to its peaks, and the long, painful process of writing down mortgage-related debt begins. 4. Independant advisors flourish. ... With the wirehouses exiting retail for wealth management, a huge opportunity opens for a national firm to market like crazy and become the WalMart of investing. Edward Jones misses the boat.5. Deficit spending creates some kind of crash. Not sure what, maybe the U.S. dollar gets devalued when the Treasury's plan to spark doubledigit inflation fails.6. Longterm investors -- i.e., those with attention spans longer than 5 minutes -- spend the next five years buying value stocks at historic prices and retire comfortably.7. Unemployment hits 15 percent and everybody wakes up and says, 'Hey, you can't have a succesful economy without good-paying blue collar jobs.'8. Advisors who figure out how to flourish in this atmosphere get rich.9. Lakers win NBA title.

JoeNatlanta's picture
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Message
Topic: Prediction Thread
Posted: Today at 6:09am By Chazzy
could we be any more gloomy? I predict you will lose more clients over the next year because of your negative vibe....

Just sayin

i've never been more busy than I am right now...and folks aren't looking for optimism - they are looking for real solutions to this market - and to their goals...as is the same in ANY market - up or down

and the only consistent "positive vibes" I've seen in this business are the ones that cost their clients 30 -50% and most of their own net worth during these times...because reality slams them in the head while they have it in the clouds

Chazzy's picture
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JoeNatlanta wrote:Message Topic: Prediction Thread i've never been more busy than I am right now...and folks aren't looking for optimism - they are looking for real solutions to this market - and to their goals...as is the same in ANY market - up or down and the only consistent "positive vibes" I've seen in this business are the ones that cost their clients 30 -50% and most of their own net worth during these times...because reality slams them in the head while they have it in the clouds
 
***YAWN***
 
Wow thats original. You are a GENIUS . I didnt know that clients needed solutions in an up or down market. Thats great advice
 
 
Please save your '30 second' pitch for clients. I can read through your BS
 
 

Soothsayer's picture
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A Prediction Thread?  Now that's right up ol' Soothsayer's alley:
1) Joe Biden gets caught on camera slapping Michelle Obama on the ass and yelling out, "We need to get some red beans and rice in this ol' girl!"  He is relieved of his duties immediately, becomes the new spokesperson for Hair Club for Men, and is replaced by John Kerry as VP.
2) Morgan Stanley/ Smith Barney breaks into two entirely separate platforms.  SmithMorgan retains the top third of the company's advisors and caters exclusively to HNW clients with $1MM or more.  A second firm, StanleyBarney, begins to sign thousands of commercial retail leases on the cheap next to Subways, MoneyStores, nail salons, dog groomers, cell phone stores, and H&R Block locations (that sit empty 9 1/2 months per year) to compete with Edward Jones for the "mass affluent".
3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.
4) Stuck in 3rd place, and not a factor in the playoff picture, the Yankees trade A-Rod to a National League contender just before the trading deadline.  That team goes on to win the World Series.  (Dodgers maybe?)
5) The next shoe to drop in regard to the economy is commercial real estate--especially retail.  Saks and Nordstrom merge, Sears closes half their stores, and Pier 1 bites the dust.  There is a silver lining for advisors everywhere: Nordstrom actually holds a real sale and we all fill our closets with their best dress shirts for 50% off! 
6) Jim Weddle sells one of his cars to buy a solid gold implant to fill in that gap in his bottom teeth.  The gold implant has "JW" in diamonds.  He shows the new implant off for the first time on a broadcast announcing a special promotion whereby if you open a new IRA account, the client gets a full-size tube of BrylCreem. 
7) Merrill Lynch advisors receive a new compensaton plan with a top payout of 33%.  To achieve that level, the client must have their home loan, vacation home loan, auto loan, business loan, credit card, regular brokerage account, and two IRAs under Bank of Amerillca's care.  In protest, the advisors change the logo to a bull taking a crap.
8) 44 states sue UBS for withholding tax money from them, too.  UBS sells their US money management business in disgrace with all of the various lawsuits.  A better firm emerges from the ashes and becomes the new standard bearer for the wirehouse model. 
9) Arlen Specter loses his primary race, and Tim Geithner resigns as Treasury Secretary.  He is replaced by Paul Volcker who actually assembles a team of people to start dealing with the continued problems in the banking sector.  In an unrelated story, Barney Frank begins speech therapy to finally deal with his very annoying lisp.
10) Bucking the wind, solar initiatives of the government, private industry begins spending money to build natural gas compression facilities in greater numbers and move and transport natural gas more efficiently.  The US auto industry starts planning their comback by building cars that run on compressed gas.  Having very little natural gas in their part of the world, the Asian and European automakers are slow to react, and Americans embrace true energy independece.  The new compressed gas cars and trucks are huge hits with government tax incentives to buy them.  (Okay, this is just me wishin' and fishin', but wouldn't it be great?) 

NOVA's picture
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This would make a great "2009 Outlook" seminar.

Chazzy's picture
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Soothsayer wrote:3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.   Maclin? Seriously? As a Dawg fan, I have to agree about Stafford though....

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

Chazzy wrote: Soothsayer wrote:
3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.   Maclin? Seriously? As a Dawg fan, I have to agree about Stafford though....
 
It's hilarious that out of everything in that post, this is the one you took issue with...
 
 

Chazzy's picture
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SometimesNowhere wrote:Chazzy wrote: Soothsayer wrote:
3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.   Maclin? Seriously? As a Dawg fan, I have to agree about Stafford though....
 
It's hilarious that out of everything in that post, this is the one you took issue with...
 
 
 
 
I thought that was the only one he was actually serious about....

Soothsayer's picture
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I was also serious about A-Rod.  He's too much drama, and too much of a distraction in New York.  He needs a fresh start in a new town.

Chazzy's picture
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Soothsayer wrote:I was also serious about A-Rod.  He's too much drama, and too much of a distraction in New York.  He needs a fresh start in a new town.
 
Maybe he just needs another 'shot in the arm' - pun intended

BiLo's picture
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I think it's a decent analysis.  As far as the market goes it will probably turn down again and then back up.  Who cares what the next 12 months hold because assets are on sale at deep discount prices.  Buy low, hold on and reap the rewards!

Soothsayer's picture
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And suddenly, the Dodgers are in need of a right-handed stick in the 4 hole.  Hmmmmmm.....

lady_trader's picture
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1) Mutual fund companies will have fallout. M & A between a few mid-size companies  will happen. Consumers will stop contributing to their retirement accounts  because  a) of the severe loss that they have already taken b) these cash-strapped consumers need money for daily expenses.
2) Jobless rate will hit 11%.
3) Consumers will "give up" because it is now socially acceptable to say : " I received a bad loan from a bank" or " I can't pay my credit card that I maxed out".
4) Advisors who sell DOOM AND GLOOM will make a lot of money this year. Sell the 35% fed. tax bracket client the muni. Tell them that they will be laughing all the way to the bank if their tax bracket is changed to 39% because their tax-equiv. yield just increased.
5) This year rates will be flat, but we HAVE to go through a period of higher rates. A treasury auction may fail in a few years which will signal a rate increase.
 
 
 

Ron 14's picture
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Advisors who sell Doom and Gloom this year may look smart in the short term. Advisors who are building their business on short term market predictions will look like goons in the future.

JoeNatlanta's picture
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I don't disagree with you, but nearly every single big-time revenue producer at wirehouses ($1.5 million and up) that i've seen make their livings off selling whatever the current theme is. This year? Doom and Gloom and munis and "lighten up on your allocation"...even though it's normally the wrong thing to do. I can hear many of my co-workers the past few years touting international, oil and gas, etc...

just a thought...

Ron 14's picture
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It is always easier to sell people what they want instead of what they need. In that scenario who is advising who ?

Chazzy's picture
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lady_trader wrote:4) Advisors who sell DOOM AND GLOOM will make a lot of money this year.  
Good luck with that

Ron 14's picture
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I agree Chazzy. You only look smart selling Doom and Gloom before sh*t hits the fan. After the fact doesn't make much sense. That is what CNBC is for.

daytradah's picture
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Peter Schiff saw it coming and nailed it.
 

Chazzy's picture
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Soothsayer wrote:
A Prediction Thread?  Now that's right up ol' Soothsayer's alley:
leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  
 
 
Am I the only one here still laughing about this one???
 
 

Chazzy's picture
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Thats what I thought

Chazzy's picture
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Maybe, but I find it funny to hear Eagles fans say that every year

Soothsayer's picture
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For the record, I am not an Eagles fan.  Just think 2009 is their year. 

Chazzy's picture
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Soothsayer wrote:For the record, I am not an Eagles fan.  Just think 2009 is their year. 
 
please dont tell me you are a Cowboys fan

brokergirl's picture
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I am Cowboy fan, living and working in Eagle country, makes things interestig during footbal season.

Soothsayer's picture
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Chazzy wrote:Soothsayer wrote:For the record, I am not an Eagles fan.  Just think 2009 is their year. 
 
please dont tell me you are a Cowboys fan
 
Not by a longshot.  I still think Machlin was the steal of the draft.  We'll see. 

Ron 14's picture
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Maclin may end up being a good return man, but as a legit WR I have serious doubts. All he ran at Missouri were slip screens and reverses. Guys like him don't make it in the NFL as receivers (Peter Warrick, Desmond Howard, Raghib Ismail). I actually think DeSean Jackson isn't that good either. I wouldn't be surprised if his first year ends up being his best. // Although I may be unfairly judging the Eagles, I am still bitter they knocked out the Bears after the 2001 season !

Sam Houston's picture
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Ugh, a Bears fan.  Let me tell you how your season is going to go.  Hand off to Forte, 1 yd gain.  Pass to Forte in the flat, 3 yd gain.  Pass to Olson, 5 yd gain.  Punt.  Rinse and repeat.  Occasional incomplete bomb to Hester thrown in.

Chazzy's picture
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KNOWSON MORENOremember that name

Ron 14's picture
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Sam Houston wrote:Ugh, a Bears fan.  Let me tell you how your season is going to go.  Hand off to Forte, 1 yd gain.  Pass to Forte in the flat, 3 yd gain.  Pass to Olson, 5 yd gain.  Punt.  Rinse and repeat.  Occasional incomplete bomb to Hester thrown in.
 
I don't know if you live under a rock, but they did trade for Jay Cutler. They will probably still be 8-8, but Cutler slings it around. That Bears offense you described perfectly under Kyle Orton will change.

Sam Houston's picture
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Ron 14 wrote:Sam Houston wrote:Ugh, a Bears fan.  Let me tell you how your season is going to go.  Hand off to Forte, 1 yd gain.  Pass to Forte in the flat, 3 yd gain.  Pass to Olson, 5 yd gain.  Punt.  Rinse and repeat.  Occasional incomplete bomb to Hester thrown in.
 
I don't know if you live under a rock, but they did trade for Jay Cutler. They will probably still be 8-8, but Cutler slings it around. That Bears offense you described perfectly under Kyle Orton will change.
 
Did they trade for some receivers also?  Poutler cannot throw the ball to himself.  The defense will have more players collect social security this year than make the pro bowl.

Ron 14's picture
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You think Cutler is a baby ? Way to have an original thought. /That is like you being a top producer and some new manager comes in from another firm and wants to replace you with one of his guys who is older and not nearly as good. I am sure you would say, "Ok, Mr. New Boss, I am a team player, I will do whatever you feel is best for the team." - Give me a break.

Sam Houston's picture
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How do you know Poutler is better in McDaniels system?  Seems to me a professional head coach would know better than you or I.  I cannot seem to remember Manning or Brady ever being on the trading block.  Kind of made me wonder.  As far as calling him Poutler, it was more due to him refusing to return phone calls like a spiteful teenage girl. 

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Chazzy wrote:KNOWSON MORENOremember that name
 
Not enough speed, and doesn't break enough tackles for a big back.  He'll hang around the League for a few years with little meaningful impact.

Ron 14's picture
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Sam Houston wrote:
How do you know Poutler is better in McDaniels system?  Seems to me a professional head coach would know better than you or I.  I cannot seem to remember Manning or Brady ever being on the trading block.  Kind of made me wonder.  As far as calling him Poutler, it was more due to him refusing to return phone calls like a spiteful teenage girl. 

 McDaniels System ? What system is that ? It isn't a system, it is superior talent in a crap division. He has Belicheck, Brady, Moss, and Welker. He has never been a head coach at any level. I wouldn't have returned phone calls from that coat tail riding clown either.

chief123's picture
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I agree.. How did the other Belicheck disciples work out? Fat boy at Notre Dame? Romeo Crennel? Mangini...

That was like when Scott Linehan was deemed a master offensive coordinator when he was with the vikings for 3 season(and by the way they had Moss, Culpepper, and Carter)... Anyone who has moss has the easiest job in the world... Run 30 yards down field and I will just throw the ball and you jump up and get it.

Ron 14's picture
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Exactly, and Brian Billick before him. It doesn't take a genius to tell Moss to run deep and have Carter or Welker work single coverage underneath. Billick then went to the Ravens and couldn't do anything with the offense.

Sam Houston's picture
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chief123 wrote:I agree.. How did the other Belicheck disciples work out? Fat boy at Notre Dame? Romeo Crennel? Mangini... That was like when Scott Linehan was deemed a master offensive coordinator when he was with the vikings for 3 season(and by the way they had Moss, Culpepper, and Carter)... Anyone who has moss has the easiest job in the world... Run 30 yards down field and I will just throw the ball and you jump up and get it.
 
And what were they saying about Belicheck after his first job?  I am not saying that McDaniels is a genius or even going to be a good coach, what I am saying is that his playbook may require a different skill set than Poutler has, therefore bringing in a QB he was familiar with isn't the end of the world, cry in the corner, refuse to answer the phone crisis Poutler made it out to be.

Ron 14's picture
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Ron 14 wrote:
You think Cutler is a baby ? Way to have an original thought. /That is like you being a top producer and some new manager comes in from another firm and wants to replace you with one of his guys who is older and not nearly as good. I am sure you would say, "Ok, Mr. New Boss, I am a team player, I will do whatever you feel is best for the team." - Give me a break.
 
You are telling me you wouldn't be pissed off with the above scenario ? Anyone with an ounce of self respect would be angry at the way Punk McDaniels treated him.

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