Post of the Decade

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Shania Twain's picture
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Joined: 2009-09-23

Originally posted by Indyone

[quote=DOWN]
It's amazing how again and again the doomsayers rise up on this forum and while the wind is at their back, bluster on and on ad nauseum about how we are heading for Armageddon. It's equally amazing how fast they disappear when the tide turns against them. You too, will disappear in time. Meanwhile, we'll all be treated to your infinite "wisdom" about the direction of markets and the global economy, whether we ask for it or not.

I'm not stupid enough to make a bold prediction of the short term direction of markets and economies. What I do know is that we've always had the ingenuity to cope with whatever problem has been set before us...eventually. I'm a patient and opportunistic investor and my greatest asset has been the ability to tune out kooks on both ends of the spectrum and stay with a general plan of attack. From time to time, that plan gets tweaked and adjusted a bit, but the basic premises have always stayed intact. Stock market investing is for time horizons of five years or more. Dollar cost averaging is a good idea. People at, near, or in retirement need to take steps to reduce market risk, and so on. You get the picture. The idiots who say to load up on gold or tech stocks eventually get their turn in the woodshed. We all do. It's my goal to make the trip to the woodshed as painless as possible while preserving the ability to participate in rebounds. Market timing, except for a few modest tweaks of portfolio allocations, is not a part of my playbook.

This is the reason I survived the lost decade...all of it. Not because I made huge bets in any direction. Those who continue to make large bets eventually make the wrong bet and wash out of the industry. For most, it's sooner rather than later, but a few lucky ones hang on for longer than would be expected. Plenty crow about being able to accurately predict market tops and bottoms, but rare indeed is the timer who can produce a market-beating track record for extended periods of time. These same hucksters will point to their market-beating performance over the lost decade, which in my opinion is unimpressive in itself. Overall, my portfolio beat the indexes over the last ten years, but that can be explained by a few simple strategies, such as dollar cost averaging and decent manager performance, along with a few modest tactical shifts. All you have to do is look at the long-term record of a perma-bear to quickly see that betting against capitalism is a doomed strategy.

Bluster on, Dr. Doom...I've tuned out more impressive prognosticators than the anonymous rrmag forum bears.

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

Shania Twain wrote:Originally posted by Indyone DOWN wrote: It's amazing how again and again the doomsayers rise up on this forum and while the wind is at their back, bluster on and on ad nauseum about how we are heading for Armageddon. It's equally amazing how fast they disappear when the tide turns against them. You too, will disappear in time. Meanwhile, we'll all be treated to your infinite "wisdom" about the direction of markets and the global economy, whether we ask for it or not. I'm not stupid enough to make a bold prediction of the short term direction of markets and economies. What I do know is that we've always had the ingenuity to cope with whatever problem has been set before us...eventually. I'm a patient and opportunistic investor and my greatest asset has been the ability to tune out kooks on both ends of the spectrum and stay with a general plan of attack. From time to time, that plan gets tweaked and adjusted a bit, but the basic premises have always stayed intact. Stock market investing is for time horizons of five years or more. Dollar cost averaging is a good idea. People at, near, or in retirement need to take steps to reduce market risk, and so on. You get the picture. The idiots who say to load up on gold or tech stocks eventually get their turn in the woodshed. We all do. It's my goal to make the trip to the woodshed as painless as possible while preserving the ability to participate in rebounds. Market timing, except for a few modest tweaks of portfolio allocations, is not a part of my playbook. This is the reason I survived the lost decade...all of it. Not because I made huge bets in any direction. Those who continue to make large bets eventually make the wrong bet and wash out of the industry. For most, it's sooner rather than later, but a few lucky ones hang on for longer than would be expected. Plenty crow about being able to accurately predict market tops and bottoms, but rare indeed is the timer who can produce a market-beating track record for extended periods of time. These same hucksters will point to their market-beating performance over the lost decade, which in my opinion is unimpressive in itself. Overall, my portfolio beat the indexes over the last ten years, but that can be explained by a few simple strategies, such as dollar cost averaging and decent manager performance, along with a few modest tactical shifts. All you have to do is look at the long-term record of a perma-bear to quickly see that betting against capitalism is a doomed strategy. Bluster on, Dr. Doom...I've tuned out more impressive prognosticators than the anonymous rrmag forum bears.
 
It is a FALSE post. Otherwise, pretty good. I came on here to help when I read some of the crap being written here. The market was already up 45% from the lows when I joined. There was no wind at my back!!!!!! Also, I am not a bull or a bear. I am an investor with the objective to build wealth.

SometimesNowhere's picture
Joined: 2008-12-22

As a bear in this current market, I will say a couple words for the rational bears (I am not meletio or his army of other screen names). I have read your posts Shania, and I don't think you are out of line with your optimism. If that is the story you are comfortable telling, tell it. As a newer advisor that tried to read a lot about market economies, I feel like a lot of people missed the warning signs of the bust (or busts, depending on how you look at it) in the past 18 months. I, for one, promised myself I would not miss the warning signs when they came around another time. For me, it would be irresponsible to not learn from the past with an eye on the future. Am I selling people out of all assets and putting them in cash ala MoroDolan? No. I am also not screaming the equity story from the rooftops either. I think at most it is a time for cautious optimism, at least you are preparing for the worst.

iconsult100's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-07

Shouldn't you all be working?  The market is open. 

Shania Twain's picture
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Joined: 2009-09-23

dont have to
this is easier
thanks for asking

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

iconsult100 wrote:Shouldn't you all be working?  The market is open. 
 
My biz is not comission based. I also thank you for asking.

Indyone's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-31

howboutshoeshine wrote:It is a FALSE post. Otherwise, pretty good. I came on here to help when I read some of the crap being written here. The market was already up 45% from the lows when I joined. There was no wind at my back!!!!!! Also, I am not a bull or a bear. I am an investor with the objective to build wealth.

 
1.  The post in question was not directed specifically at you even though you obviously took it as such.
2.  Please tell me how the post is false.
3.  If the market is up 45% and you are predicting a pullback, how is the wind not at your back?
4.  Gee...an objective to build wealth...that's original.
5.  You're an investor?!!  Are you in this business or not?  Are you even licensed?
 
I haven't posted much lately, but every once in awhile, I feel a need to come back and counteract some of the "help" I see here.

Indyone's picture
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Joined: 2005-05-31

Apparently he wasn't even in the business...just another know-it-all DIY-er.

BigKahuna's picture
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Joined: 2009-11-19

Indyone wrote:Apparently he wasn't even in the business...just another know-it-all DIY-er.
 
Was he licensed? You must be kidding!!! Ever read his posts? What a dumb thing to say.

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