Originally posted by Indyone
It's amazing how again and again the doomsayers rise up on this forum and while the wind is at their back, bluster on and on ad nauseum about how we are heading for Armageddon. It's equally amazing how fast they disappear when the tide turns against them. You too, will disappear in time. Meanwhile, we'll all be treated to your infinite "wisdom" about the direction of markets and the global economy, whether we ask for it or not.
I'm not stupid enough to make a bold prediction of the short term direction of markets and economies. What I do know is that we've always had the ingenuity to cope with whatever problem has been set before us...eventually. I'm a patient and opportunistic investor and my greatest asset has been the ability to tune out kooks on both ends of the spectrum and stay with a general plan of attack. From time to time, that plan gets tweaked and adjusted a bit, but the basic premises have always stayed intact. Stock market investing is for time horizons of five years or more. Dollar cost averaging is a good idea. People at, near, or in retirement need to take steps to reduce market risk, and so on. You get the picture. The idiots who say to load up on gold or tech stocks eventually get their turn in the woodshed. We all do. It's my goal to make the trip to the woodshed as painless as possible while preserving the ability to participate in rebounds. Market timing, except for a few modest tweaks of portfolio allocations, is not a part of my playbook.
This is the reason I survived the lost decade...all of it. Not because I made huge bets in any direction. Those who continue to make large bets eventually make the wrong bet and wash out of the industry. For most, it's sooner rather than later, but a few lucky ones hang on for longer than would be expected. Plenty crow about being able to accurately predict market tops and bottoms, but rare indeed is the timer who can produce a market-beating track record for extended periods of time. These same hucksters will point to their market-beating performance over the lost decade, which in my opinion is unimpressive in itself. Overall, my portfolio beat the indexes over the last ten years, but that can be explained by a few simple strategies, such as dollar cost averaging and decent manager performance, along with a few modest tactical shifts. All you have to do is look at the long-term record of a perma-bear to quickly see that betting against capitalism is a doomed strategy.
Bluster on, Dr. Doom...I've tuned out more impressive prognosticators than the anonymous rrmag forum bears.