Mother MERrill Research Call

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ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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from last month that was right on the $$$
Don Carson of Mother MERrill Lynch made a pretty nice call late last month on POT(ash). This call was timely and the upgrade was given because of a supply-demand crunch with potash (key ingredient in fertilizer production):
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/chart.jsp?symbol=POT&dur ation=2-6-8-0-0-51
 
We happen to have a long position in this security which was initiated in mid July:
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/chart.jsp?symbol=POT&dur ation=2-6-8-0-0-56
This security is somewhat seasonal cyclical with respect to revenues and earnings, hence there's a right time and wrong time to buy and sell each year.
3 months ago when it became apparent that Brian Hunter of Amaranth had a HUGE problem in natural gas land, we issued this "research" report:
It's time to smoke a lot more POT, since natural gas ain't very hot, thanks to Brian Hunter, the little snot:
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/chart.jsp?symbol=POT&dur ation=2-6-8-0-0-53
Bobby McCann of Mother MERrill was sent a gratis copy of our research report. I surmise he was a little amused since he's an equity trader with a great sense of humor.
Mr. Butler, let's hear about the best call YOU have made for your clients in the past 6 months, 3 months, or even 30 days. I don't want to see anything off the "model portfolio" aka "distribution" list, either.
I am surprised good old Ameriprise (AMP:NYSE) with its cutesy baby boomer ads, doesn't do one which promotes smoking POT. Most baby boomers smoked a little in their youth and I am sure most baby boomers wish they had smoked a little with us 6 months ago at $82.50 per share.
 
 

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

Yolanda have you finally lost your mind?OH and by the way even though you're not series 7 licensed I suspect it could be problematic for you to be posting what could be construed as a specific recommendation on this board, especially if you're already long the stock.

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

No, Joe, I have not lost my mind.
 I didn't say BUY some POT today. Mr. Carson did almost 30 days ago. Too bad you didn't load the boat, Joe. $120.00 to $145.00 in 30 days isn't a bad call, even for "late to da party" Mother MERrill Lynch!
You are correct. I am not Series 7 licensed. No need to be. I don't waste time peddling mutual funds and variable annuities to little old grannies. That's what Series 7 licensed wirehouse brokers do for a living!

badmove?'s picture
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Joined: 2006-06-10

I bot ax @ 39 which is now NYX @ 109, not bad I think

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

Awesome....
I made a few nice trades on NasDaq now known as NDAQ and the London Stock Exchange, now known as LSE.L, too.

badmove?'s picture
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Joined: 2006-06-10

ditto...still own all 3.
Also like beaten down UTES and some retailers(JCP), not a solicitation, nor an offer to buy or sell, just one mans humble opinion.

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

I haven't messed with and of the retailers too recently. Wish I hadn't missed Sears Holdings (SHLD) earlier this year. I still prefer shopping at JCP or NWN to SHLD any day of the week.
Dana Telsey of Bear used to be pretty good in that sector. She's running her own boutique research firm now. The other gal who covers it, Christine Augustine isn't quite as seasoned but what I like about her is she doesn't fall in love with them as long as Dana did. Dana had a few she had trouble saying HOLD or SELL on and it was not because of IB conflicts, either.
I typically stick with several sectors I know very well (banks, brokers, energy, natural resources, beverages, food processing, packaging, transportation). Very boring sectors, but if you manage to time the bottoms/tops pretty closely, they can be plenty of fun.
It will be interesting to see what NDAQ finally winds up paying for LSE.L.
FD: not a solicitation to do anything (even go shopping)

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

ymh_ymh_ymh wrote:I haven't messed with and of the retailers too recently. Wish I hadn't missed Sears Holdings (SHLD) earlier this year. I still prefer shopping at JCP or NWN to SHLD any day of the week.
Dana Telsey of Bear used to be pretty good in that sector. She's running her own boutique research firm now. The other gal who covers it, Christine Augustine isn't quite as seasoned but what I like about her is she doesn't fall in love with them as long as Dana did. Dana had a few she had trouble saying HOLD or SELL on and it was not because of IB conflicts, either.
I typically stick with several sectors I know very well (banks, brokers, energy, natural resources, beverages, food processing, packaging, transportation). Very boring sectors, but if you manage to time the bottoms/tops pretty closely, they can be plenty of fun.
It will be interesting to see what NDAQ finally winds up paying for LSE.L.
FD: not a solicitation to do anything (even go shopping)Dana Telsey is HOT HOT HOT!!

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

Augustine's a blonde, though!
Do you remember Holly Becker, NasDaq wrecker at LEHman by any chance? She was a lot more timely than Blodget or Meeker and I don't think Jeff Bezos will ever forget her!
I am in great spirits tonight. Pete Carroll's sending Charlie Weis back to South Bend with a lot of respect for Southern Cal!

babbling looney's picture
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Joined: 2004-12-02

I don't waste time peddling mutual funds and variable annuities to little old grannies. That's what Series 7 licensed wirehouse brokers do for a living!
That was a completely unprofessional statement.  You have just gone down a few notches in my opinion.

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

Babs, sorry you feel that way.
I have never and will never peddle mutual funds and/or variable annuities to anyone (especialLEH little old ladies from Pasadena).
Speaking of Pasadena, I bet Charlie Weis' memories of that place are none too fond. Did you catch last night's game?
FD: I have never and will never peddle POT or pot (for that matter) to anyone, either.

babbling looney's picture
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ymh_ymh_ymh wrote:
Babs, sorry you feel that way.
I have never and will never peddle mutual funds and/or variable annuities to anyone (especialLEH little old ladies from Pasadena).
Speaking of Pasadena, I bet Charlie Weis' memories of that place are none too fond. Did you catch last night's game?
FD: I have never and will never peddle POT or pot (for that matter) to anyone, either.

It's OK.  Your posts are usually informative and professional so I was somewhat surprised at the tone you took.  There are some whose methods I don't necessarily agree with Dirk , but we can still all learn from each other.  However, positioning someone properly in a mutual fund or variable annuity, does not constitute peddling.  Even L.O.L.s from Pasedena may need growth and diversification in their portfolios and a variable annuity is not always a bad thing.

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

I don't know what got into me yesterday other than being a little "anxious" over last night's game. I have many friends who are Notre Dame alums/fans. We made some bets. If they lost, they had to wear USC apparel in public all of this coming week. If I lost I would wear Notre Dame apparel and also become a nun (that was a joke, am not the Mother Theresa type).
Some clients need/want mutual funds. There are good mutual funds out there. Some need/want VA's. Ditto---those are appropriate investments for some clients. I respect brokers/advisors who practice "know thy client" and adivse their clients appropriately (to include good mutual funds and/or VA's).
I hope you and everyone else has a nice weekend. Apologies to anyone else I may have offended without meaning to do so.

troll's picture
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Joined: 2004-11-29

ymh_ymh_ymh wrote:
Mr. Butler, let's hear about the best call YOU have made for your clients in the past 6 months, 3 months, or even 30 days.
You mean, best trade, not best call, right? My best calls have been in doing things that wouldn't interest you as a trader. And you have to know the implications of registered reps giving out stock advice in a forum like this.

troll's picture
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ymh_ymh_ymh wrote:
. I don't waste time peddling mutual funds and variable annuities to little old grannies. That's what Series 7 licensed wirehouse brokers do for a living!

Clearly, while you are well versed in much of the business, you haven't the slightest idea about life at a wirehouse. WADR...

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

You're right---retail brokerage is not my schtick.
Does WADR trade on the NDAQ, otcbb, or the pinks?

rook4123's picture
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Joined: 2006-05-21

ymh_ymh_ymh wrote:You are correct. I am not Series 7 licensed. No
need to be. I don't waste time peddling mutual funds and variable
annuities to little old grannies. That's what Series 7 licensed
wirehouse brokers do for a living!

You are hilarious

rook4123's picture
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Joined: 2006-05-21

Oh, I forgot to ask what do you do for a living besides trading?

skeedaddy2's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-14

Folks, do we still have to argue about Sell Side research in 2006-7?  Everyone knows its not worth the paper its written on.  

skeedaddy2's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-14

ymh_ymh_ymh wrote:... let's hear about the best call YOU have made for your clients in the past 6 months, 3 months, or even 30 days. I don't want to see anything off the "model portfolio" aka "distribution" list, either. 6 months....NVDA3 months....AAPL12 months....AKAM or PDWorst callsMOT,QCOM,RHATI'm a tech junkie at heart but I tend to focus on the action.  Last year was oil and basic materials. This year tech. Next year I hope its biotech. What about you?

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

9 months---URE.TO (junior miner north of the border)--the entire sector imploded yesterday (too much hype coming out of Howe Street in Vancouver, BC on some vaporware ones)
4 months---POT (fertilizer)
1 week---some short sales I would prefer not to discuss (nice ones, however)--^VIX got too low for too long
Was on the right side of being super long several broker-dealers and didn't make the mistake of shorting any of them for very long (including Goldman Sachs)
Worst ones:
loaded up CMVT too early this year on takeout rumors some very naughty market makers in Tel Aviv started---cut losses pretty fast (limited them to an 8.2% hit)
I haven't touched biotech (long or short) in a long time. The FDA's entirely too fickle and we don't have the time or patience to play their game or keep up with them. ELN was super sweet after the Tysabri bad news dump. That was our last biotech trade. Love that Kelly Martin (former Mother MERrill guy).
NVDA is a great security to trade (lots of liquidity), ditto with AAPL
You made some nice calls this year!

ymh_ymh_ymh's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-05

Besides trading?
Send humorous (but informative) e-mails to securities regulators and come up with better commercials than Ameriprise (AMP:NYSE) does but that's all pro bono work (means I don't invoice for those services).

skeedaddy2's picture
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Joined: 2005-09-14

Thanks for the compliment. Now you can say that doing some POT can be good for you. As far as our neighbors to the north...well after NT, I've never had much interest. Take another look at biotech. The Democrats are considered favorable for stem cell, genome et. al. Its not a trade, but I think the next year, two or four can be interesting. Happy Trading.

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