Asia’s up 2%.

  Looks like the rally continues.

It is with great hesitancy that i join this discussion, for fear of giving credibility to the idea of the great coming apocalypse.

Can someone please explain to me the relevance of the price of camels in Dubai, to the need for Americans and the world to consume the products of Abbott Labs, Johnson and Johnson, Intel, Altria and many other great companies that sell products that people need and the relevance of the camels to the time horizon for the average 40-50 year old who needs to retire comfortably and so should be investing in these companies for the next 20 years? Down, and all your other persona, like meletion shoeshine boy and others, are you delusional enough to really believe that you are all knowing about the markets direction in the next 15 days, and apparently, next 15 minutes. 

[quote=Sportsfreakbob]It is with great hesitancy that i join this discussion, for fear of giving credibility to the idea of the great coming apocalypse.

Can someone please explain to me the relevance of the price of camels in Dubai, to the need for Americans and the world to consume the products of Abbott Labs, Johnson and Johnson, Intel, Altria and many other great companies that sell products that people need and the relevance of the camels to the time horizon for the average 40-50 year old who needs to retire comfortably and so should be investing in these companies for the next 20 years? Down, and all your other persona, like meletion shoeshine boy and others, are you delusional enough to really believe that you are all knowing about the markets direction in the next 15 days, and apparently, next 15 minutes. [/quote]

Dubai World owns assets all over the world.  If they are forced to liquidate these assets at fire sale prices to pay back creditors it would have a ripple effect across global markets.  Some of the major international assets they own include:

Barney's
Equity in Standard Chartered, MGM Mirage, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Perella Weinberg and Sony
20% stake in Cirque Du Soleil
Turnberry Golf Course in Scotland
QE2 Cruise ship
21% stake in London Stock Exchange

If the UAE backs all their debt, then this will be contained.  If not, there will be problems.  This also raises questions about other emerging market countries will large amounts of debt.   There is concern there will be a domino effect with more countries unable to meet debt obligations (sort of like what we saw with the banks in '08 with Bear Stearns leading the way).  With the banks, the US, UK etc stepped in and bailed them out.  The question is who will bailout the debt of these countries if it comes to that?

DOWN:

UAE markets limit down Monday
Black Friday Sucked
Mkt broke 1100 Friday ( on what is typically a strong day )
Big banks may be forced to raise capital


It’s Gonna get ugly

  Oh yes, Chicken Little...the sky did INDEED fall this morning.   It's amazing how again and again the doomsayers rise up on this forum and while the wind is at their back, bluster on and on ad nauseum about how we are heading for Armageddon.  It's equally amazing how fast they disappear when the tide turns against them.  You too, will disappear in time.  Meanwhile, we'll all be treated to your infinite "wisdom" about the direction of markets and the global economy, whether we ask for it or not.   I'm not stupid enough to make a bold prediction of the short term direction of markets and economies.  What I do know is that we've always had the ingenuity to cope with whatever problem has been set before us...eventually.  I'm a patient and opportunistic investor and my greatest asset has been the ability to tune out kooks on both ends of the spectrum and stay with a general plan of attack.  From time to time, that plan gets tweaked and adjusted a bit, but the basic premises have always stayed intact.  Stock market investing is for time horizons of five years or more.  Dollar cost averaging is a good idea.  People at, near, or in retirement need to take steps to reduce market risk, and so on.  You get the picture.  The idiots who say to load up on gold or tech stocks eventually get their turn in the woodshed.  We all do.  It's my goal to make the trip to the woodshed as painless as possible while preserving the ability to participate in rebounds.  Market timing, except for a few modest tweaks of portfolio allocations, is not a part of my playbook.   This is the reason I survived the lost decade...all of it.  Not because I made huge bets in any direction.  Those who continue to make large bets eventually make the wrong bet and wash out of the industry.  For most, it's sooner rather than later, but a few lucky ones hang on for longer than would be expected.  Plenty crow about being able to accurately predict market tops and bottoms, but rare indeed is the timer who can produce a market-beating track record for extended periods of time.  These same hucksters will point to their market-beating performance over the lost decade, which in my opinion is unimpressive in itself.  Overall, my portfolio beat the indexes over the last ten years, but that can be explained by a few simple strategies, such as dollar cost averaging and decent manager performance, along with a few modest tactical shifts.  All you have to do is look at the long-term record of a perma-bear to quickly see that betting against capitalism is a doomed strategy.   Bluster on, Dr. Doom...I've tuned out more impressive prognosticators than the anonymous rrmag forum bears.

[quote=Indyone] [quote=DOWN]

It’s amazing how again and again the doomsayers rise up on this forum and while the wind is at their back, bluster on and on ad nauseum about how we are heading for Armageddon. It’s equally amazing how fast they disappear when the tide turns against them. You too, will disappear in time. Meanwhile, we’ll all be treated to your infinite “wisdom” about the direction of markets and the global economy, whether we ask for it or not.



I’m not stupid enough to make a bold prediction of the short term direction of markets and economies. What I do know is that we’ve always had the ingenuity to cope with whatever problem has been set before us…eventually. I’m a patient and opportunistic investor and my greatest asset has been the ability to tune out kooks on both ends of the spectrum and stay with a general plan of attack. From time to time, that plan gets tweaked and adjusted a bit, but the basic premises have always stayed intact. Stock market investing is for time horizons of five years or more. Dollar cost averaging is a good idea. People at, near, or in retirement need to take steps to reduce market risk, and so on. You get the picture. The idiots who say to load up on gold or tech stocks eventually get their turn in the woodshed. We all do. It’s my goal to make the trip to the woodshed as painless as possible while preserving the ability to participate in rebounds. Market timing, except for a few modest tweaks of portfolio allocations, is not a part of my playbook.



This is the reason I survived the lost decade…all of it. Not because I made huge bets in any direction. Those who continue to make large bets eventually make the wrong bet and wash out of the industry. For most, it’s sooner rather than later, but a few lucky ones hang on for longer than would be expected. Plenty crow about being able to accurately predict market tops and bottoms, but rare indeed is the timer who can produce a market-beating track record for extended periods of time. These same hucksters will point to their market-beating performance over the lost decade, which in my opinion is unimpressive in itself. Overall, my portfolio beat the indexes over the last ten years, but that can be explained by a few simple strategies, such as dollar cost averaging and decent manager performance, along with a few modest tactical shifts. All you have to do is look at the long-term record of a perma-bear to quickly see that betting against capitalism is a doomed strategy.



Bluster on, Dr. Doom…I’ve tuned out more impressive prognosticators than the anonymous rrmag forum bears.[/quote]





this is the post of the decade.   amen brother



"trip to woodshed less painless"



perfect

[quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Sportsfreakbob]It is with great hesitancy that i join this discussion, for fear of giving credibility to the idea of the great coming apocalypse.

Can someone please explain to me the relevance of the price of camels in Dubai, to the need for Americans and the world to consume the products of Abbott Labs, Johnson and Johnson, Intel, Altria and many other great companies that sell products that people need and the relevance of the camels to the time horizon for the average 40-50 year old who needs to retire comfortably and so should be investing in these companies for the next 20 years? Down, and all your other persona, like meletion shoeshine boy and others, are you delusional enough to really believe that you are all knowing about the markets direction in the next 15 days, and apparently, next 15 minutes. [/quote]

Dubai World owns assets all over the world.  If they are forced to liquidate these assets at fire sale prices to pay back creditors it would have a ripple effect across global markets.  Some of the major international assets they own include:

Barney's
Equity in Standard Chartered, MGM Mirage, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Perella Weinberg and Sony
20% stake in Cirque Du Soleil
Turnberry Golf Course in Scotland
QE2 Cruise ship
21% stake in London Stock Exchange

If the UAE backs all their debt, then this will be contained.  If not, there will be problems.  This also raises questions about other emerging market countries will large amounts of debt.   There is concern there will be a domino effect with more countries unable to meet debt obligations (sort of like what we saw with the banks in '08 with Bear Stearns leading the way).  With the banks, the US, UK etc stepped in and bailed them out.  The question is who will bailout the debt of these countries if it comes to that?


[/quote] And this will all be temporary, because the world will not come to an end. People will still buy qtips, drugs that save lives, and oil. This is no different than the Russian currency crisis, the Asian Contagion, or any of the other 1001 events that the doomsters were screaming would bring down the free world as we know it.   I'm not saying to just sit and hold and buy EVERY dip. There is nothing wrong with being tactical around the fringes of your core. But to move portfolios into cash, treasuries and the dollar 100% as some of the jackasses on this board are suggesting, no, are pounding the table with, would be irresponsible, as a prudent advisor

[quote=NYCTrader]

[quote=Sportsfreakbob]?

D [/quote]Dubai World owns assets all over the world. If they are forced to liquidate these assets at fire sale prices to pay back creditors it would have a ripple effect across global markets. Some of the major international assets they own include:Barney’s Equity in Standard Chartered, MGM Mirage, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Perella Weinberg and Sony20% stake in Cirque Du SoleilTurnberry Golf Course in ScotlandQE2 Cruise ship21% stake in London Stock ExchangeIf the UAE backs all their debt, then this will be contained. If not, there will be problems. This also raises questions about other emerging market countries will large amounts of debt. There is concern there will be a domino effect with more countries unable to meet debt obligations (sort of like what we saw with the banks in '08 with Bear Stearns leading the way). With the banks, the US, UK etc stepped in and bailed them out. The question is who will bailout the debt of these countries if it comes to that?[/quote]



Dubai…funny



your looking out back window brother



"Financials rise, Goldman says loss cycle near end "



The next thing to get us (prolly 20 plus years from now) WONT be this.



Dubai World is a fukcing side show.   non-event.    capitialism working



These stupid &%$ &^%$ build something that does not make economic sense.



Oct. 5, 2009, 8:11 a.m. EDT · Recommend (3) · Post:   



Goldman Sachs ups large U.S. banks to attractiveRelated stories

Financials rise, Goldman says loss cycle near end (4:02p)

U.S. Steel catches praise on overseas projects (1:54p)

Dow closes up as Dubai fears wane (6:01p)

AIG sinks as analyst calls its reserves deficient (12:49p)

Story

Quotes

Comments Screener (74) Alert Email Print ShareBy Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – Analysts at Goldman Sachs got more optimistic about large U.S. banks Monday, raising their coverage view on the sector to attractive from neutral.



Among specific names, they upgraded Wells Fargo & Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!wfc/quotes/nls/wfc (WFC 28.02, -0.02, -0.07%) to buy and Comerica Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!cma/quotes/nls/cma (CMA 28.47, +0.67, +2.41%) to neutral.



They added Capital One Financial Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!cof/quotes/nls/cof (COF 38.26, -0.10, -0.26%) to their conviction buy list, which also includes J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!jpm/quotes/nls/jpm (JPM 42.32, -0.17, -0.40%) and Bank of America Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!bac/quotes/nls/bac (BAC 15.83, -0.02, -0.13%) .



“The market has failed to recognize the dramatic improvement in earnings power at the large banks versus the regionals,” they wrote, adding that, "We believe this difference in earnings power has not been fully reflected in share prices."



Wells Fargo upgraded to buy, conviction on Capital One

Goldman’s team lifted Wells Fargo to buy from neutral, saying that the bank’s capital position is improving and it stands to reap big rewards form its distressed takeover of Wachovia Corp.



“Wells is the big winner this cycle on change in tangible assets per share, up 70% from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009. The reason is simple: Wells bought Wachovia at a depressed price,” the analysts said.



Goldman added banking and credit card firm Capital One to its Conviction Buy list. It said the company’s consumer credit problems are moderating and the analysts expect a positive revenue surprise for upcoming third quarter results.



“Tangible assets per share have not changed and consumer credit is moderating,” the researchers said. “We think third quarter revenues will be better than expected leading investors to revise up normalized EPS to over $5, leaving the stock at 6 times normalized (earnings), versus 9 times for regionals.”

Ferris Bueller:

We should start the RRMAG forums contrarian fund. Anything these morons think, do the opposite.

  Amen.

[quote=Sportsfreakbob][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Sportsfreakbob]It is with great hesitancy that i join this discussion, for fear of giving credibility to the idea of the great coming apocalypse.

Can someone please explain to me the relevance of the price of camels in Dubai, to the need for Americans and the world to consume the products of Abbott Labs, Johnson and Johnson, Intel, Altria and many other great companies that sell products that people need and the relevance of the camels to the time horizon for the average 40-50 year old who needs to retire comfortably and so should be investing in these companies for the next 20 years? Down, and all your other persona, like meletion shoeshine boy and others, are you delusional enough to really believe that you are all knowing about the markets direction in the next 15 days, and apparently, next 15 minutes. [/quote]

Dubai World owns assets all over the world.  If they are forced to liquidate these assets at fire sale prices to pay back creditors it would have a ripple effect across global markets.  Some of the major international assets they own include:

Barney's
Equity in Standard Chartered, MGM Mirage, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Perella Weinberg and Sony
20% stake in Cirque Du Soleil
Turnberry Golf Course in Scotland
QE2 Cruise ship
21% stake in London Stock Exchange

If the UAE backs all their debt, then this will be contained.  If not, there will be problems.  This also raises questions about other emerging market countries will large amounts of debt.   There is concern there will be a domino effect with more countries unable to meet debt obligations (sort of like what we saw with the banks in '08 with Bear Stearns leading the way).  With the banks, the US, UK etc stepped in and bailed them out.  The question is who will bailout the debt of these countries if it comes to that?


[/quote] And this will all be temporary, because the world will not come to an end. People will still buy qtips, drugs that save lives, and oil. This is no different than the Russian currency crisis, the Asian Contagion, or any of the other 1001 events that the doomsters were screaming would bring down the free world as we know it.   I'm not saying to just sit and hold and buy EVERY dip. There is nothing wrong with being tactical around the fringes of your core. But to move portfolios into cash, treasuries and the dollar 100% as some of the jackasses on this board are suggesting, no, are pounding the table with, would be irresponsible, as a prudent advisor[/quote]

Let me first say that I don't think the world is coming to an end.  I also don't think you should ever be invested 100% in anything, especially not cash.

I totally agree with you on being tactical and having a core strategy.  Particularly when it comes to client assets.  Yes, there are a quite a few jackasses on this board (bulls and bears alike), but it's true of our business as a whole.

In no way do I advocate being in 100% treasuries right now, but at the same time, I think it's reckless to be in 100% stock right now (or even 80% for that matter).  Particularly with client assets.  This is how books are blown up.  In general, with client assets, I tend to air on the side of being conservative -- I would much rather miss out on an up move and preserve capital than take risks and lose big.  Clients hire me to protect their money, not lose it playing hunches.  They took risks in their professional careers and businesses.  They don't need me to originate their wealth.  They already had it long before they met me.

Now, with my own money, I will take more risk.  And with this market I am not convinced we are anywhere close to being out of the woods.   This Dubai situation could be the tip of the iceberg.  Will we reach a point where other countries and some US municipalities and states start to default on their debt?  I don't know.  I hope not.  It seems pretty far fetched right now, but you remember 2008?  If I had told you in 2007 that Lehman, Bear Stearns, WaMu, AIG, Wachovia and Merrill would collapse within the year, would you believe me?  Probably not.  I wouldn't have believed it either.  That doesn't mean it's outside the realm of possibility.  Or that we shouldn't look for warning signs and prepare for it in the event it does happen.

I try to maintain a healthy skepticism when I look at the markets.  That's what I'm paid to do.  Being bullish is great and is often the right course of action.  But you can't be a bull 100% of the time.  Just like you can't be a bear 100% of the time.  There is room for nuance.  Right now, I'm bearish.  If I'm wrong, no big deal.  My clients missed out on some upside.   But if I'm an all in bull right now and I'm wrong, the stakes are much higher.  Why put your clients, your business and your reputation at that kind of risk?  Especially given what's happened over the past 18 months.  If you're wrong about this recovery, why would they ever trust you again?  Conviction is great, but the markets are unpredictable and you never know what's around the corner. 

If there are warning signs that things could take a turn for the worse (and my God, if this Dubai situation isn't a gigantic flashing red neon sign, then I don't know what is) -- don't you think your clients would appreciate hearing "I'm looking at the markets right now and I don't like what I see.  Let's take some risk of the table"  instead of "Dubai is an isolated event.  We're in a V-shaped recovery!!  This is the start of the new bull market.  Nothing to worry about!!"   I know my clients would prefer to hear the first answer over the second.  That's what you're there for.  Any dumbass can be a perma-bull.  But these people trust you with their wealth.  They want to know that you are looking out for them and you are going to be prudent and responsible, not reckless. 

Look, at the end of the day, all you have is your integrity.  If you truly believe that we are in a V-shaped recovery and you can make your clients a killing by buying stock, then go all in.  Just make sure they understand the risks involved in being this agressive.  And more importantly, make sure you're right.  Because if you're not, I don't think your clients will have a whole lot of sympathy or really care anymore about why your bullish case is so bulletproof (although I'm sure the arbitration panel will want to hear all about it).